Wolves-Lakers series predictions from the Timberwolves On SI staff

Can sixth-seeded Minnesota pull off a first-round upset over third-seeded Los Angeles?

Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards and Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James hug after the game at Target Center in Minneapolis on March 31, 2023. | Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

After a grueling 82-game regular season, the NBA postseason is finally here and the Minnesota Timberwolves have a date with the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs. It's sure to be a compelling matchup.

From the rematch with Luka Doncic, whose Dallas Mavericks topped the Wolves in the Western Conference finals last season, to Anthony Edwards taking on his Team USA teammate in LeBron James, there will be no shortage of storylines to follow. The Wolves and Lakers split the regular-season series 2-2, though only one of those matchups came after Los Angeles acquired Doncic ahead of the trade deadline. Still, only one win separated the two teams in the West standings.

The sixth-seeded Wolves, in theory, should enter the playoffs with some momentum, having won eight of their final 10 games of the season. But they're the underdogs against the third-seeded Lakers. As of Thursday, Los Angeles is a -186 favorite to win the best-of-seven series, per FanDuel Sportsbook, and all 10 of ESPN's "NBA experts" picked the Lakers to win.

Our staff here at Timberwolves On SI made some predictions of our own, and let's just say they're a little different:

Nolan O'Hara: Wolves in 7

It has to be said: As bad of a matchup as the Lakers appear to be on paper, the Phoenix Suns looked like the worst possible matchup for Minnesota last season. That all changed after the Wolves had a week off to game plan, and they have some apparent advantages in this series, size being a big one — pun intended. A lot of pundits seem to think Rudy Gobert will be unplayable in this series, but he's been playing some of his best offensive basketball in the final month of the season. If Gobert continues that trend, the Lakers have no answer defensively, particularly with their heavily used small-ball lineups.

While Doncic and James get a lot of fanfare and the Lakers are the betting favorites, it's the Wolves who have been the better team down the stretch of the season. Minnesota went 11-4 in its last 15 games with an offensive rating of 121.0 (fifth in NBA), a defensive rating of 111.1 (11th) and a net rating of 9.8 (fourth) during that stretch. Los Angeles went 8-7 with an offensive rating of 117.3 (12th), a defensive rating of 118.0 (23rd) and a net rating of -0.7 (19th). Despite the tough matchup, the Wolves are the hotter team, the better team and they'll sneak out a win in a thrilling seven-game series.

Will Ragatz: Lakers in 7

I truly believe the Wolves are capable of winning this series, but there are several “ifs” that have to go their way for that to happen. Anthony Edwards has to be able to navigate the Lakers’ defensive pressure and make the right reads. Julius Randle has to play better than he ever has in the postseason. Other Wolves have to step up and deliver on offense. Defensively, they have to at least slow down L.A.’s big three of Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves. This series is basically a toss-up for me, but I’ll lean towards picking the team with Luka and LeBron.

Tony Liebert: Wolves in 7

The national media consensus seems to be against the Timberwolves, but Minnesota had an even 2-2 split with Los Angeles in the regular season. The Luka Doncic trade shook up the entire NBA, and Los Angeles is now one of the most dynamic offensive teams in the league, but the Wolves are the type of team that could slow them down. Minnesota struggled with Doncic in last year's Western Conference finals, but Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker have had plenty of time to let last year's series motivate them. It will be the most interesting series of the first round and I think the Wolves steal Game 7 on the road.

Jonathan Harrison: Wolves in 5

Admittedly this a wild pick considering all the experts are taking the Lakers, and the rest of the Timberwolves On SI staff is seemingly seeing this series going to seven games. The Wolves will have to take the lessons they learned last postseason and apply them straight away against one of the tougher matchups they could have gotten in the first round. Doncic almost single-handedly killed the Wolves last year while leading the Mavs to the NBA Finals. Minnesota will need its top-10 defense to step up to slow down Doncic, James and Reaves. This Wolves team is entering the playoffs on a hot run of form, winning eight of its last 10 games. It's preposterous, but it just feels like too much optimism and opinion is going in the Lakers' favor at the moment, and these Wolves seem to like the underdog role. Wolves in 5.

Joe Nelson: Wolves 6

LeBron and Luka and as dynamic as it gets. Well, almost. I'd argue that Luka and Kyrie Irving were a more formiddable duo together when the Mavericks dispatched the Wolves in five games. That Dallas team was awesome. Not only did it have two superstars, but it had two really good dunking, defensive-minded bigs in Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford, along with an elite 3-and-D wing in P.J. Washington.

These Lakers are nice on offense with Luka, LeBron and Austin Reaves, but if this were a hockey game fans would be chanting "sieve" while the Wolves score at will against a woeful Lakers defense. Luka could hide on defense in Dallas, but he can't in L.A. Nobody will save him this time around, and he will be exposed by a high-end Minnesota offense.

Did no one notice that Minnesota toyed with lesser competition all season, only to rise to the occasion when things actually mattered? It's an annoying way to go about business, but NBA experts who think the Lakers are going to walk over these Wolves need their eyes checked.

I really do believe the Wolves could win this series in five games, but I don't want to discount the favorable whistle and gigantic free-throw advantage the Lakers are likely going to have, so I'll stretch it to six games as a courtesy to Lakers sixth man Adam Silver.

---