How Game 5 Loss Flipped the Betting Odds Against the Wolves

The Timberwolves entered Monday's Game 5 in Denver as significant 11.5-point betting underdogs, so it shouldn't come as a surprise that the Nuggets controlled much of the game en route to a win. But the 12-point loss shifted the series betting odds in Denver's favor. Here's how it happened.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Wolves are now underdogs to win the series, despite leading three games to one. The latest odds list Minnesota as +134 betting underdogs. That number would give them a 42.74% implied probability of advancing to the second round.

Early odds for Game 6 at the Target Center list the Wolves as 6.5-point betting underdogs. The status of Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon looms large over Thursday night's pivotal showdown. He did not play on Monday night, and the Nuggets are now 1-1 when he plays this series. He averaged 16.2 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game in the regular season, so he's clearly one of the most impactful players on Denver's roster.

Game 6 might be Minnesota's Game 7

Losing Donte DiVincenzo for the rest of the postseason, and Anthony Edwards' status being week-to-week with a knee injury, obviously changed Minnesota's outlook for the series. It was always going to be a tough road ahead after the Game 4 roller coaster, but they had a commanding 3-1 series lead. There have only been 13 teams in the history of the NBA to blow that lead in a postseason series.

Game 6 on Thursday night in Minneapolis will likely be the Timberwolves' best chance to avoid that fate. From a pure odds perspective, any advantage that Minnesota had evaporated on Monday night in Denver.

Terrence Shannon Jr. and Bones Hyland both stepped up with 15 points each off the bench, but Denver still won by 12 points. It's clear that they will need a complete game from nearly the entire roster in order to beat the Nuggets with Edwards and DiVincenzo. Rudy Gobert had three points, and Jaden McDaniels had 13. Minnesota will need more out of both starters on Thursday.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that their margin for error is now razor-thin in the series. There appeared to be some optimism on Monday about Edwards' chance of returning from injury this postseason, so Minnesota can only hope that inspires a better performance in Game 6.

Team odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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