How early is too early to label Timberwolves' Rob Dillingham as a bust?

On draft night in 2024, Tim Connelly and the Timberwolves — who didn't have a first-round pick of their own — parted with a sizable package to acquire the No. 8 selection from the Spurs and take Kentucky point guard Rob Dillingham. 18 months later, that decision looks like a swing and miss.

There's certainly still time for Dillingham to emerge and contribute for the Wolves. But up to this point, there's been little evidence that suggests that's likely to happen. And with Dillingham turning 21 on Sunday, it's fair to wonder if it's too early to give him dreaded "bust" label.

As a rookie, Dillingham played in 49 games, averaging 10.5 minutes a night. Outside of a stretch in late January and February where the Wolves had some injuries, he wasn't a regular part of Chris Finch's rotation. For the season, he averaged 4.5 points and 2.0 assists per game while shooting 44 percent from the field.

There were some hopes that Dillingham's role would increase in year two, with Nickeil Alexander-Walker gone and Mike Conley a year older. That hasn't happened. Dillingham has averaged 10.3 minutes and is entirely out of the rotation at the moment. He's at 3.9 points and 1.9 assists per game on abysmal 35.5 percent shooting.

Rob Dillingham — Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

Finch just doesn't seem to trust Dillingham very much, which has been the case throughout the 1.5 seasons he's been on the team. He's gotten called out for mistakes on multiple occasions, and perhaps as a result, Dillingham often looks indecisive or hesitant when he's on the floor. He hasn't played enough to find a rhythm or figure out when to shoot and when to distribute the ball. He competes on defense, but he'll always been a target for opponents on that end due to his slight frame.

The point guard bar for Dillingham to clear on the Wolves' roster consists of Mike Conley and Bones Hyland. The former is 38 years old and shooting 35 percent. The latter was on a two-way deal last year and spent basically all of November out of the rotation. And yet, Dillingham hasn't been able to prove to Finch and the coaching staff that he deserves to play over either of those players. The Wolves could desperately use another point guard they can rely on, but they don't seem to have any plans on giving Dillingham an opportunity to be the answer there.

77 games into his NBA career, Dillingham has shown some of the flashes that made him a top-ten pick. At his best, he's a lightning-quick guard who can score from all three levels and make plays for others. But it just doesn't seem to be happening for him in Minnesota. A change of scenery might ultimately be what Dillingham needs to have a chance at turning his career around.

More Timberwolves coverage