Predicting the West's Top 6 Seeds as the Playoff Race Heats Up

Can the Timberwolves stay afloat without Anthony Edwards to secure a top-four seed?

Mar 10, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic (77) moves the ball against Minnesota Timberwolves forward Kyle Anderson (12) during the second half at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

After pulling away for a convincing win over the Suns without Anthony Edwards on Tuesday night, the Minnesota Timberwolves created three games of separation from Phoenix and set the stage for what could very well be a four-team battle for the third, fourth, fifth, and sixth seeds in the Western Conference playoff race.

Entering play Wednesday, the Wolves and Nuggets have identical records at 42-27, while the Rockets are percentage points ahead at 41-26. The Lakers, at 43-25, are 1.5 games clear of Houston, Denver, and Minnesota.

With the Thunder (54-15) and Spurs (51-18) having almost certainly clinched the top two seeds in the conference, the next four spots could come down to the wire. Unfortunately, as we noted in our story on Tuesday, the Wolves will lose tiebreakers to the Lakers and Nuggets, while they have to win their final two games against Houston to avoid losing a tiebreaker to the Rockets as well.

The top 10 teams in the Western Conference entering play on Wednesday, March 18. | Sports Illustrated

The 10 teams that will make the playoffs in the West are pretty much set, since the 11th seed, the Memphis Grizzlies, are nine games out of the play-in picture. Of the 10 teams cemented into the playoff picture, Minnesota has one of the hardest remaining schedules.

Remaining strength of schedule, from easiest to hardest:

1. Portland: .431 opponent win percentage
2. LA Clippers: .440
3. San Antonio: .458
4. Houston: .488
5. Golden State: .496
6. Denver: .497
7. LA Lakers: .500
8. Minnesota: .506
9. Oklahoma City: .515
10. Phoenix: .524

Now, lets predict how the fina 12 to 14 games for the Lakers, Rockets, Nuggets, and Wolves will go.

Lakers	Rockets	Nuggets	Wolves
at Houston (L)	vs. Lakers (W)	at Memphis (W)	vs. Utah (W)
at Miami (L)	vs. Atlanta (W)	vs. Toronto (W)	vs. Portland (W)
at Orlando (W)	vs. Miami (W)	vs. Portland (W)	at Boston (L)
at Detroit (L)	at Chicago (W)	at Phoenix (L)	vs. Houston (W)
at Indiana (W)	at Minnesota (L)	vs. Dallas (W)	vs. Detroit (W)
vs. Brooklyn (W)	at Memphis (W)	vs. Utah (W)	at Dallas (W)
vs. Washington (W)	at New Orleans (W)	vs. Golden State (W)	at Detroit (L)
vs. Cleveland (W)	vs. New York (L)	at Utah (W)	at Philly (L)
at OKC (L)	vs. Milwaukee (W)	vs. San Antonio (W)	vs. Charlotte (W)
at Dallas (W)	vs. Utah (W)	vs. Portland (W)	at Indiana (W)
vs. OKC (L)	at Golden State (L)	vs. Memphis (W)	at Orlando (W)
at Golden State (L)	at Phoenix (L)	vs. OKC (W)	at Houston (W)
vs. Phoenix (W)	vs. Philly (W)	at San Antonio (L)	vs. New Orleans (W)
vs. Utah (W)	vs. Minnesota (L)
	vs. Memphis (W)

I've got the Wolves going 10-3 over their final 13 games. Is it bold? Without Edwards for the next week or two, it certainly is. But I firmly believe the Wolves are a team that can flip the switch and win at a high level, even without Edwards in the lineup. We saw that against Phoenix on Tuesday night.

I have the Lakers going 8-6 to close the season, the Rockets going 10-5, and the Nuggets getting hot and winning 11 of 13 games before the playoffs.

The top six seeds will look like this in the West:

1. Oklahoma City
2. San Antonio
3. Denver (53-29)
4. Minnesota (52-30)
5. Houston (51-31)
6. Lakers (51-31)

The Rockets will win the tiebreaker over the Lakers thanks to two wins in three regular-season meetings. The Nuggets will surge to the No. 3 seed, while the Wolves avoid a tiebreaker that could send them tumbling out of the top four.

These aren't unrealistic outcomes. The Lakers finishing 8-6 over the last 14 games may seem cruel, but they're in the midst of a six-game road trip with tough games against the Rockets, Heat, Magic, and Pistons. They also have to play Oklahoma City twice more, along with difficult games against the Cavaliers, Warriors, and Suns. They've lost three of four to Phoenix, and the Warriors will likely have Steph Curry back for the stretch run.

The Timberwolves have been inconsistent all season, but every time we think they're down, they respond and look like a team that can make a lot of noise in the postseason. I fully expect that to be the case, with or without Edwards, for the final 13 games.