Ranking Wolves' 7 possible first-round playoff opponents by difficulty

A great example of the current craziness of the Western Conference playoff picture is that with one week to go in the regular season, the Timberwolves could still conceivably face seven different teams in a first-round series, assuming they don't get shockingly bounced in the play-in tournament.

As of Monday, there's a four-way tie between teams in the five through eight seeds in the West. The Nuggets are just 0.5 games above that pack, creating the possibility of a five-team tie after Tuesday night's games. Every remaining game has massive stakes for seeding.

Cannot remember seeing anything like this in the final week before. pic.twitter.com/OjoXBT7cdF
— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) April 7, 2025

The Wolves could be in a play-in team and face either the Rockets or Thunder in a 2-7 or 1-8 series, respectively. They could be the sixth seed, which would likely mean facing the third-seeded Lakers. Or they could face any of the four teams jammed up next to them in a 4-5 (or perhaps 3-6) series. There's still so much to be determined over the next six days.

With those possibilities in mind, let's rank all seven potential Wolves playoff opponents by difficulty, going from the least desirable to the best-case outcome. The likelihood of the series actually happening isn't a factor in these rankings.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have been the clear-cut best team in the West (and the entire NBA) this season. Even if you have questions about their lack of playoff experience, they've proven to be a dominant force. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a nightmare to defend, the Thunder have all kinds of depth, and their defense is easily the league's best. The Wolves went 2-2 against OKC this season, so they'd have a chance in a seven-game series, but ending up as the No. 8 seed is the worst-case outcome.

2. Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers' big win over the Thunder on Sunday makes them the clear favorite to be the No. 3 seed in the West. They can clinch that by going 2-2 the rest of the way. If that happens, the Wolves being the 6 seed would lead to a pretty scary first-round matchup. With a big three of LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and Austin Reaves, the Lakers' offense is incredibly hard to stop. Their defense is less intimidating, though not awful. And while I don't like to be a ref-blamer or conspiracy theorist, it's at least worth acknowledging that a Lakers first-round loss wouldn't be great for NBA ratings. Justified or not, that'll inevitably be a narrative brought up by Minnesota fans if this series takes place.

3. Golden State Warriors

The Warriors lost to the Rockets on Sunday, but they're still 20-3 with Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler playing together (and 14-1 with their current starting lineup). Curry has been incredible lately, and Butler — a notorious playoff performer — fits so nicely alongside him and Draymond Green. Brandin Podziemski and Buddy Hield give Golden State some additional scoring punch. The Wolves were 1-3 against the Warriors this season, so this would also be a scary first-round matchup. Golden State looks like a team with a genuine chance to go to the NBA Finals.

4. Los Angeles Clippers

A little over a month ago, the Clippers were 32-29. Since then, they've gone 14-3 to put themselves right in the thick of the race for a top-six seed. Kawhi Leonard is healthy and playing at an elite level, James Harden has turned back the clock and looks very dangerous, and Norman Powell and Ivica Zubac bring a lot to the table alongside that duo. The Wolves are 3-0 against the Clippers this season, but those games all took place between Nov. 29 and Jan. 6 — and Leonard only played in one of them. This is a different team nowadays. For the season, LAC is second in defensive rating.

5. Houston Rockets

This is as low as I feel comfortable going with the second-seeded Rockets, who could finish with 55 wins. Houston has been a great team all year, ranking fourth in net rating behind the elite trio of teams (Thunder, Celtics, Cavaliers). They've got six players who average at least 12 points per game, led by Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun. Point guard Fred VanVleet has lots of playoff experience, while Dillon Brooks, Amen Thompson, and Tari Eason are defensive menaces.

This would be a difficult series, but if the Wolves end up in the play-in and win the first game to secure the 7 seed, it wouldn't actually be a bad outcome (they went 2-2 against the Rockets this season). That would also mean no chance of facing the Thunder until the Western Conference Finals. Of course, this scenario comes with the risk of losing the first play-in contest and facing an elimination game for the right to play the Thunder in the opening round. That part isn't great.

6. Memphis Grizzlies

If you want to move the Grizzlies down to the bottom of this list, I'd understand. They fired their head coach recently and have been limping to the finish line. After being on their way to a top-three seed for most of the season, Memphis has gone 11-16 over the past two months and might be bound for the play-in tournament. But there's still a chance they could find their way to a 4-5 matchup with the Wolves, even if it's a slim one (especially because the two teams play each other this Thursday). The reason the Grizzlies are in this spot is that they're 2-0 against the Wolves this year and handled them in six games back in the 2022 postseason. Led by Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane, they just seem to be a difficult matchup for Minnesota.

7. Denver Nuggets

It feels crazy to say, but I think the optimal scenario for the Wolves is another playoff series against the 2023 NBA champions and the best basketball player on the planet. After last week's incredible double-OT thriller, the Wolves have won six in a row against the Nuggets dating back to last year's seven-game second-round series. Last Tuesday's loss began Denver's current four-game losing streak. They're just 10-13 in their last 23 and might not get Jamal Murray back for the start of the playoffs. Nikola Jokic remains a uniquely terrifying individual force, but Anthony Edwards and company would be licking their chops if they end up facing the Nuggets in the first round.