Wolves Clinch Playoff Spot as West First-Round Matchups Come Into Focus

The Timberwolves can exhale after clinching a playoff spot and avoiding the play-in tournament.

Minnesota clinched Tuesday night when the Phoenix Suns blew a big lead and lost to the Houston Rockets. The Wolves entered the night needing a win over Indiana, which they got, and a Suns loss to secure a top-six seed in the Western Conference pllayoff race.

The Wolves downed the Pacers 124-104 behind 24 points from Ayo Dosunmu, 19 from Julius Randle and Bones Hyland, and 17 from Naz Reid, who finally found his shooting stroke in a 7-of-10 performance. Minnesota shot 52% overall, including 17-of-41 from three-point range (41%).

Phoenix choked on a 28-7 lead and wound up losing 119-105. Despite the collapse, the Suns still carried an 84-81 lead into the fourth quarter, only to let the Rockets outscore them by 17 over the final 12 minutes.

Phoenix is now locked into the play-in tournament with the Clippers, Trail Blazers, and Warriors.

With only three games remaining, the only way the Wolves can climb up to fifth place is by winning out while the Rockets go 0-3 to finish the regular season. In that scenario, Minnesota and Houston would finish 50-32, and the Wolves would own the tiebreaker.

If the Wolves, Rockets, and Lakers all finish 50-32, the three-team tiebreaker would be settled by best winning percentage in games against each other. The Wolves would be 2-5, compared to the Lakers at 5-1 and the Rockets at 2-4. That would put the Lakers in fourth, followed by the Rockets in fifth, and the Wolves in sixth.

The biggest question for Minnesota is who they will face in the first round of the playoffs. As the likely No. 6 seed, they'll have a best-of-seven series against the No. 3 seed. That's Denver right now, though the Nuggets' lead is just one game on the Lakers and Rockets.

The Lakers are pretty much doomed without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves injured, though they may find a way to win out against Golden State, Phoenix, and Utah.

The Rockets finish the regular season with three games at home against the 76ers, Wolves, and Grizzlies.

The Nuggets, winners of nine straight, host the Grizzlies and Thunder before playing at San Antonio. However, the Thunder can clinch the No. 1 seed with a win over the Clippers on Wednesday night, which could lead to them and the Spurs resting key players against the Nuggets on Friday and Sunday, respectively. That's why Denver remains the heavy favorite to secure the No. 3 seed.

So, Minnesota's most likely first-round opponent is Denver, with the second-most likely outcome being a matchup against the Rockets.

Oklahoma City and San Antonio will face the two teams that come out of the play-in tournament, while the Rockets and Lakers appear destined for a first-round playoff series.