Predicting Where the Timberwolves Will Finish in the West Standings

With about two months left until NBA teams report to training camp, the LeBron James domino finally fell, flipping into the Eastern Conference and onto the Philadelphia 76ers.

Looking around the league, most teams are finished with the heavy lifting in terms of their offseason roster moves. I feel as though we know enough to get an overall scope of where teams sit, but things can still change.

Therefore, here is my late-July (and still probably way too early) prediction for how the West standings will shake out and where the Minnesota Timberwolves—who have acquired the biggest name of any team in the West—will finish come early April.

1st — San Antonio Spurs

Key additions/re-signings: Tobias Harris, Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, Jordan McLaughlin, Victor Wembanyama
Key subtractions: N/A

San Antonio, coming off an NBA Finals run, was able to keep last season’s young core completely intact while adding a winning veteran in Harris who averaged 13.3 points per game on 46.9% from the floor and 36.8% from deep for the Detroit Pistons. I am very excited to see what the Spurs can do with another year of development under their belt. I think their elite, deep, fast, and rugged guard play combined with Wembanyama’s greatness leads them to a first-place finish in the West by a rather comfortable margin.

2nd — Oklahoma City Thunder

Key additions/re-signings: Aday Mara, Isaiah Hartenstein, Kenrich Williams
Key subtractions: Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins

Sam Presti was forced to shed salary this offseason to avoid entering the second apron. The Thunder are losing an incredibly valuable and versatile defender in Dort, a knock-down three-point shooter in Joe, and an easy-fitting offensive threat with high upside in Wiggins. Still, they have enough talent — headed by the back-to-back MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — to finish second in the West.

3rd — Minnesota Timberwolves

Key additions/re-signings: LaMelo Ball, Josh Green, Trey Lyles, Isaiah Evans, Ayo Dosunmu, Bones Hyland, Jaylen Clark
Key subtractions: Naz Reid, Julius Randle, Mike Conley, Kyle Anderson, Micah Nori

The Timberwolves are lacking size in their frontcourt. They must fill one roster spot before the season starts, and will presumably do so with a player who has some size. But whoever they bring in will be a low-wattage signing. Despite their lack of size, I believe the addition of Ball will unlock Minnesota’s offense in a way we have not seen — Edwards, McDaniels, and Gobert will all benefit greatly. Minnesota has a unique blend of on-ball creation, off-ball shooting, and scrappy defense that should carry it throughout the regular season and into home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, so long as players can stay focused and play with the maturity they lacked last season.

4th — Denver Nuggets

Key additions/re-signings: Marvin Bagley III, Alpha Diallo, Trevon Brazile, Tyus Jones, Spencer Jones
Key subtractions: Tim Hardaway Jr.

We will see what happens with restricted free agent Peyton Watson, but assuming he returns, I believe the Jamal Murray-Nikola Jokić duo is still lethal enough to keep Denver near the top of the West. Last season, the Nuggets finished third despite Watson missing 25 of the final 30 games, Aaron Gordon missing 43% of the regular season, and Jokić missing nearly all of January. This is a well-coached team still with championship pedigree. Will they be a threat to go deep in the playoffs again? I don’t think so. But this roster as currently constructed will still be one of the tougher outs on a night-to-night basis in the regular season.

5th — Los Angeles Lakers

Key additions/re-signings: Quentin Grimes, Jaden Hardy, Walker Kessler, Kevon Looney, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Collin Sexton, Matisse Thybulle, Ziaire Williams, Cameron Carr, Austin Reaves
Key subtractions: LeBron James, Deandre Ayton, Rui Hachimura, Jaxson Hayes, Luke Kennard, Marcus Smart

LA still has to cut down its roster by at least one player, so we will see how that shakes out. But I actually like the moves Rob Pelinka made this summer. With the cap space he gained from LeBron's departure, Pelinka built a roster that can accentuate the offensive strengths of Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves. Kessler gives LA a rim protector and a high-end pick-and-roll partner for Dončić. Defense is the obvious concern with this group. But I think Dončić and Reaves, with pieces who space the floor alongside them well, will be enough to lead LA to the fifth-best record in the West.

6th — Houston Rockets

Key additions/re-signings: Bogdan Bogdanović, Marcus Smart, Bruce Thornton, Isaiah Crawford, Tari Eason, Jae’sean Tate
Key subtractions: Dorian Finney-Smith, Josh Okogie

Houston will benefit nicely from having Fred VanVleet back this season. The Rockets have a good mix of on-ball defense and athleticism around Kevin Durant and Alperen Şengün. However, I don’t think their roster overall fits in well enough for them to be a top-end team this season. I am also concerned about their clutch-time offense outside of Durant. Last season, Houston recorded a 108 offensive rating in the clutch, ranking 20th in the NBA. And in the playoffs, their late-game offense was awfully poor.

7th — Utah Jazz

Key additions/res-ignings: Darryn Peterson, Josh Okogie, Jaxson Hayes, Mo Bamba, Jusuf Nurkić
Key subtractions: Walker Kessler

After finishing last season tied for the worst record in the West, Utah is loaded with talent this year. Jaren Jackson Jr., Lauri Markkanen, Keyonte George, Ace Bailey, and Peterson will be the headliners for a team that will be worth the watch on League Pass. They remind me somewhat of the Timberwolves from 2021-22 in that I believe we will look back on this Jazz team in a few years as the group that turned the franchise toward consistent success and marked the end of their multi-year rebuild.

8th — Portland Trail Blazers

Key additions/re-signings: Ja Morant, Micah Potter, Branden Carlson, Robert Williams III
Key subtractions: Jerami Grant, Kris Murray, Matisse Thybulle

The Blazers have an aggressive, scrappy, and in-your-face playstyle. I believe they will do well under the leadership of Micah Nori this season. However, I have concerns about how their pieces fit together and how consistent they can be. There is a lot of overlap and perhaps too much depth in their guard room between Morant, Damian Lillard, Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, and Jrue Holiday. But Deni Avdija, coming off his first All-Star selection, Toumani Camara, and Donovan Clingan round out what should be a fun team. But this is still a team that is buried behind more talented clubs and not quite there yet in terms of being top-end in the West.

9th — Phoenix Suns

Key additions/re-signings: Miles Bridges, Luke Kennard, Koa Peat, Collin Gillespie, Jordan Goodwin, Mark Williams
Key subtractions: Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neale

Jordan Ott inspired a gritty team identity last season that will continue to make Phoenix a tall challenge game-to-game in the regular season. Bridges is going to give the Suns some more on-ball scoring, and Kennard will help fill in for the shooting lost with Allen and O’Neale’s departure. Still, the Suns' overall floor spacing and size in the frontcourt are concerns. We will see how everything fits together. I could see the Suns being a surprise team in the West, but they have too many questions for me to put them above any of the aforementioned teams.

10th — Dallas Mavericks

Key additions/re-signings: Santi Aldama, Marcus Sasser, Zaccharie Risacher, Tarik Biberović, Morez Johnson Jr., Sergio De Larrea, Moussa Cissé.
Key subtractions: Khris Middleton, Ryan Nembhard, AJ Johnson, Marvin Bagley III

I am excited to see how Cooper Flagg plays alongside Kyrie Irving. But I think this team’s lack of dependable floor spacing will play a part in keeping it from making a dramatic improvement this season, even with Irving, 34, returning. And aside from Irving, Dallas is very light on point-guard depth, which will likely limit how well its frontcourt can operate. Because of their abundance of forwards and the varying timelines of Flagg, Irving, and Klay Thompson, I wonder whether the Mavericks will be among the prime sellers closer to the deadline as they make a harder pivot to the future. But if they don’t, I do think Dallas has enough talent to potentially scrape into the playoffs.

11th — LA Clippers

Key additions/re-signings: Brandon Ingram, Rui Hachimura, Gradey Dick, Keaton Wagler, Baba Miller, Jordan Miller, and Kobe Sanders
Key subtractions: Kawhi Leonard, John Collins, Bogdan Bogdanović

If the reported Kawhi trade goes through, the Clippers moved their last piece of the big three they once built around him, James Harden, and Paul George. LA is committing even further to a rebuild, but I still think this team will be more competitive night-to-night than others might. Ingram, Hachimura, Darius Garland, and Bennedict Mathurin (should they keep him) are a solid mix of talent. I also think Wagler will play well in his rookie year. Still, I don’t see LA, with its overall lack of depth — especially at center — being a legitimate playoff threat.

12th — Golden State Warriors

Key additions/re-signings: Yaxel Lendeborg, Draymond Green, Kristaps Porziņģis, Al Horford, De’Anthony Melton, Charles Bassey
Key subtractions: Quinten Post

I really just don’t see it with this team. LeBron would have made them a stronger contender for the playoffs, but still not a sure-fire bet. They are stuck operating with an old man’s style in a new man’s game. Curry, Butler, Porziņģis and Draymond Green are probably enough to keep them above the very bottom of the West, but not enough to make the playoffs.

13th — New Orleans Pelicans

Key re-signings: DeAndre Jordan
Key subtractions: Kevon Looney

I would have liked to see New Orleans do something more this offseason, either selling some of their coveted talent or buying to bolster its chances at the playoffs. The Pelicans could still move Herbert Jones and/or Trey Murphy III before the season starts. They are also reported by The Stein Line to have interest in Bennedict Mathurin. But looking at their roster as-is, I think the Pelicans will once again be a bottom-feeding operation that boasts an individually talented player in Zion Williamson who can float on the line of being unguardable, but far too much complementary talent around him to make New Orleans more of a serious threat in the West.

14th — Memphis Grizzlies

Key additions: Jerami Grant, Cameron Boozer, Karim López, AJ Johnson, Kris Murray, Quinten Post, D’Angelo Russell, Isaiah Stewart
Key subtractions: Santi Aldama, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Ja Morant

The Grizzlies' current roster construction is odd. They have a slew of forwards and not much shooting. I am looking forward to seeing what Boozer has to offer at the NBA level. Jaylen Wells, Cedric Coward, Ty Jerome, Jerami Grant, and Zach Edey are all very solid players. But overall, this Grizzlies team will just lack the star power necessary to be a winning team. At least they are still keeping Taj Gibson in the league, though. That’s cool.

15th — Sacramento Kings

Key additions/re-signings: Darius Acuff Jr., Precious Achiuwa, Daeqwon Plowden
Key subtractions: Devin Carter

Sacramento may likely finish near the bottom of the standings, but at least their fans have some young talent to tune into in Acuff, Dylan Cardwell, and Maxime Raynaud. Hopefully, the Kings can find buyers for Zach LaVine and Domantas Sabonis at some point this season. Sacramento should also try to get off Malik Monk and De’Andre Hunter to start a stockpile of young talent if possible. But in the meantime — and even after — this team will continue to struggle in front of one of the NBA’s best fan bases and most gorgeous arenas.

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