Timberwolves' Biggest Missing Skill on Current Roster Is Clear

We still don't know who the starting power forward for the Minnesota Timberwolves will be when the season opens in mid-October. So naturally, much of the oxygen surrounding the Wolves following the trade of both Julius Randle and Naz Reid has focused on the newly created vacancy in the starting lineup.

But while it's an important question (and one that would preferably be solved with one LeBron James), the biggest concern is not quite exactly that, but instead, a related one: rebounding.

How will the Wolves protect the defensive glass?

In theory, the Wolves will be able to cobble together competitive minutes at the four with the existing roster.

Head coach Chris Finch recently noted that he didn't "immediately envision" Jaden McDaniels starting at the four, but McDaniels will no doubt play some minutes in the frontcourt. Terrence Shannon Jr. and Jaylen Clark also could slide into the starting lineup.

While they are both natural wings and would leave the group severely undersized, lineups featuring one of Shannon or Clark and three of the Wolves' top ball-handling guards will play fast and surely be dynamic.

Josh Green probably makes the most sense among the undersized options given his experience and proven skill of stretching the floor for solid offenses. Veteran Trey Lyles is the only true power forward on the roster, and while he may not have played in the NBA last year, Lyles was an effective rotational big man for several years before heading to play overseas last season.

The biggest problem with all of the non-Lyles options is defensive rebounding. Take a look at the current power forward options and their career defensive and total rebound rates.

	Height	Wingspan	DEF REB%	TOT REB%
Jaden McDaniels	6-9	7-0	11.6	7.9
Trey Lyles	6-9	7-1	21.0	13.2
TJ Shannon	6-6	6-9	9.4	6.0
Jaylen Clark	6-5	6-9	7.1	6.8
Josh Green	6-6	6-10	9.2	6.7

As you can see, one of these things is not like other; Lyles is the only option with anything resembling an NBA-level ability to grab a rebound.

Interestingly, Lyles was one of the few true power forwards that Rudy Gobert played next to with the Utah Jazz, all the way back in 2015-17. On its face, it seems as though we could use the Gobert-era Jazz teams as a mold for this year's Wolves.

But if we dig a step further, it becomes obvious that those Jazz teams and this Wolves team are not exactly apples-to-apples.

Were Gobert's frontcourt pairings in Utah comprable?

The primary power forwards that Gobert played next to with the Jazz from 2017-22 were ... mostly not actual power forwards. Check out this list: Bojan Bogdanovic, Georges Niang, Joe Ingles, Rudy Gay, Royce O'Neale, Jae Crowder, and Derrick Favors. Outside of Favors, most of those guys would have been thought of as natural wings or small forwards.

But guess what they all did better than any of the current Wolves options? They rebounded. The only player on that list that rebounded worse than Jaden McDaniels was Bogdanovic, who turned in a defensive rebound rate of 11.4% and a total rebound rate of 7.1% in a Jazz uniform.

Every other frontcourt running mate that Gobert had in Utah was a superior defensive rebounder to the options that Chris Finch has on his current roster.

	Height	Wingspan	DEF REB%*	TOT REB%*
Bojan Bogdanovic	6-7	6-11	11.4	7.1
Georges Niang	6-6	6-10	13.6	8.2
Joe Ingles	6-8	6-10	12.4	7.0
Rudy Gay	6-8	7-3	18.2	11.9
Royce O'Neale	6-6	6-9	17.1	10.1
Jae Crowder	6-6	6-9	13.7	8.5
Derrick Favors	6-9	7-4	21.3	16.1

*rebound rates listed from time with Jazz

So while Gobert and the Jazz flourished with non-traditional five-man units, the majority of his teammates provided legitimate support on the boards.

(For the record, they were always good on both sides of the floor: Utah's worst finish on either offense or defense during that five-year span was when they were 16th on offense in 2017-18. They were top-10 defensively in four of the five years, finished top-three on offense twice and top-three on defense three times.)

The LaMelo Ball Factor

Then again, there's this angle: When it comes to the starting lineup, the Wolves are effectively swapping Randle for Ball. And guess what? Ball is essentially the same level of rebounder as Randle.

That's right. For his career, the 6-foot-7 LaMelo Ball has a 16% defensive rebound rate and a 10% total rebound rate—silly numbers for a point guard. Over two seasons with the Wolves, Randle had a 16.7% defensive rebound rate and a total rate of 11.6%.

Obviously, it's a luxury to have a point guard who rebounds like a forward, and it gives the Wolves some latitude when it comes to selecting who the fifth member of the starting lineup will be. Do the Wolves think they can get away with it being Ayo Dosunmu, Shannon, or Clark? Probably, and it's in part because of Ball's rebounding prowess.

The most likely scenario is...

Barring a James signing, the most likely scenario is that the Wolves pick Shannon or Green to start along with McDaniels on the wing, allowing the two forward spots will be treated interchangeably.

Don't be surprised if Lyles is part of the rotation; he's only averaged less than 16 minutes per game once in his career and he didn't come back stateside to not play after a strong season with Real Madrid.

That said, the Wolves still have a vacant roster spot and will surely look to add another big body. And there's always February's trade deadline, too. The roster is unbalanced, and they simply cannot start and finish the season with only one non-center big man on the roster.

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