How Portland Can Beat Denver In the Biggest Game of the Season
The Trail Blazers' late-season surge, impressive and exhilarating as it was, could be moot if they don't take care of business against the short-handed Denver Nuggets in the season finale.
Here are five keys for Portland to beat Denver at Moda Center on Sunday, avoiding the play-in tournament and earning the right to a first-round series.
Switch Jokic Pick-and-Pops
Jusuf Nurkic, scraping his game-changing defensive peak of late, even fared relatively well checking Nikola Jokic one-on-one when these teams last met on April 18. The MVP shoo-in has always been a premier post scorer, while his sharpened jumper and improved quickness make him even more of a threat facing up and putting the ball on the deck.
Nurkic has the initial quickness to stick with Jokic under that duress as long as he makes contact on the first dribble, preventing his former teammate from getting a full head of steam. But there's no way to keep Jokic from building up that momentum when Nurkic is closing out fast to prevent a pick-and-pop, all the more reason why the Blazers must switch that action with aggression and decisiveness.
This lapse in communication – check out Nurkic pointing for Norman Powell to stay high with Jokic as Will Barton comes around the re-screen – just won't cut it with the play-in tournament on the line.
Switching a small onto Jokic is something close to a death-knell, especially at the top of the key where he can survey the entire floor and dissect defenses a step or two ahead of the action. Letting him get comfortable from three isn't exactly a better option, though, and Denver's absences on the perimeter – not just Jamal Murray, but also Will Barton and PJ Dozier – make his release valves less threatening than normal.
Plus, Nurkic doesn't need the embarrassment of getting roasted off the dribble while racing back to the arc to contest a Jokic triple.
Take Advantage of Non-Jokic Minutes
The Nuggets' offense since Jamal Murray tore his ACL has been nearly as dominant as before their realistic title hopes went down with his injury. Denver's 115.7 offensive rating over the last 17 games is eighth in the league, less than a point lower than its third-ranked mark pre-April 12.
The single driving force behind the Nuggets' sustained success on that side of ball? Jokic, of course, and Michael Malone's depleted team has been sorely unable to maintain it when he's out of the game. Denver's 118.7 offensive rating with Jokic on the floor dips all the way down to 106.5 when he's on the bench, per NBA.com/stats – the difference between league-best and bottom-four efficiency.
The Nuggets' motivation to chase a win on Sunday is unclear. Maybe Malone takes it easy on Jokic and his regulars if Portland gets out to a big early lead, knowing Denver's postseason seed mostly comes down to the LA Clippers' tankfest with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Jokic has played 33 minutes per game since Murray was lost for the season, and can still be prone to random bouts of foul trouble despite improving significantly in that regard this season.
No matter why or for how long Jokic is on the sidelines Sunday, it's imperative Portland wins those minutes – or better yet, dominates them by holding the Nuggets' toothless offense in check – if it wants to win the biggest and last game of the regular season.
Stay Attached to Michael Porter Jr.
Porter has indeed done a bit more work off the bounce since Murray was lost for the season, mostly in the form of additional dribble hand-offs with Jokic. But the takeaway from his four-dribble, 27-point outing versus the Philadelphia 76ers in late March remains the same. Porter is still more Klay Thompson as a scorer and shooter than prime Kevin Durant.
The key to limiting Porter? Refusing to give him an inch of air space, getting into his body to make Porter's high-release jumper uncomfortable and prevent easy catches on backdoor cuts and rote hand-off action. At 6-foot-10 with impressive vertical pop and natural rebounding instincts, he must be accounted for on the offensive glass, too.
Put another way, the Blazers basically need to do everything Powell doesn't on the possessions below.
Don't Overreact to Aaron Gordon
Gordon's fit in Denver seemed so perfect on paper in part because – for the first time in his career – he wouldn't be overstreched offensively. Filling the lane in transition, hitting open spot-up threes and exploiting attention paid to Jokic with canny halfcourt cuts should always have been Gordon's NBA destiny.
But he's shouldering more of a load offensively with Murray out, and Barton's tandem absence only further encourages Gordon's tendency to moonlight as a primary option. That shouldn't worry the Blazers, his size and athleticism advantages be damned.
Portland can live with Gordon taking smaller defenders down to the post or pulling up for off-dribble twos. He's just not efficient creating his own offense, and the Blazers' guards routinely hold up better in the post than you'd think anyway.
Make Denver's Bit Players Beat You
Gordon, by the way, is shooting an ugly 31.1 percent on catch-and-shoot threes with the Nuggets, and worse on pull-ups. Facundo Campazzo, a wonderful passer and dogged defender, is a non-factor inside the arc and marginal threat beyond it. Shaq Harrison is a defensive specialist who Portland can ignore away from the ball. Austin Rivers is plenty capable of one-man scoring outbursts, but was initally available on a 10-day contract for a reason. Even Monte Morris has clear offensive limitations.
Malone instills great confidence in all of his players, and Jokic is the type of superstar whose value is derived from his additive qualities as much as individual brilliance. Denver's 13-4 record since Murray's injury isn't a fluke, nor solely driven by the presumptive MVP. The Nuggets are well-coached, play hard and are comfortable in their ingrained two-way identity.
Regardless, they just don't have the supporting offensive firepower to keep up with the Blazers if Portland's defense dares the right players to shoot and make plays. Jokic is literally unstoppable; his fingerprints will be all over this game. But open shots mean less coming from the likes of Harrison and Rivers than they do Murray and Barton. Same goes for isolations and pick-and-roll from Gordon and Morris.
Jokic, with a prototype second banana scorer like Porter beside him, is good enough to beat the Blazers in a road game with massive postseason implications all by himself. Portland's most viable path to victory? Ensuring he's more passer than scorer by committing Jokic even more attention than normal, forcing the Nuggets' bit players into outsized roles offensively.