The Thunder Will Have a Lot of Questions to Answer This Summer

All right.

The NBA Finals matchup is officially set.

Beginning on Wednesday, we are going to get the New York Knicks and the San Antonio Spurs.

Game one starting Wednesday night in San Antonio.

We're going to talk about that at length later in the week on this podcast, but we have one more team.

To discuss .

One more team that has been bounced, and that is the Oklahoma City Thunder, the reigning champions, at least for another couple of weeks, who are headed off into the offseason after losing game seven at home to San Antonio going out in the Western Conference Finals.

And they've got some decisions to make this offseason.

It's gonna be an interesting one.

In Oklahoma City to help me unpack that.

I'm gonna bring in Mark Medina, my good friend who works over at Forbes, Fadeaway World.

You can see him on CBS LA Spectrum Sportsnet.

Listen to him over on Fox Sports Radio.

Been a good friend of this podcast as well.

And if you're watching this episode on YouTube, he is coming to us from an airport, uh, convenience store, or at least he looks like it with his backdrop.

What's up, Mark?

Chris, thanks for the very nice intro, but to clarify the uh end of it, it's not an airport bookstore, it's our place and uh try to make good use of uh the estate that we have.

So it's a podcast friendly for your show and maybe others.

I appreciate that.

I appreciate that.

All right, let's talk about Oklahoma City.

Um, and I guess we start with game seven.

I had some bad vibes about, you know, the Thunder going into that game.

Um, there was a lot of negativity around Shay Gildes Alexander going in, a lot of attention to how he plays.

Rachel and I talked about that a little bit last week.

But also, you know, Jalen Williams wasn't gonna play.

AJ Mitchell wasn't gonna play.

Chet Holmgren probably shouldn't have played and we'll get into that reasons why, uh, a little bit later on.

But, um, the way game seven played out, uh, what did you think?

Was that kind of what you expected?

Anything different?

How did you see, uh, that one?

Yeah, Chris, I was really open to every single scenario.

The Thunder winning game 7 because they had history winning two game 7 last year during their championship run, and history was on their side as far as what happens with past playoff teams in a game 7.

Situation.

I was also prepared for the Spurs to defy conventional wisdom because they were, they've been so competitive that series and with them winning game 6 in the dominant fashion that they had and Victor Wambayama rectifying his poor game 5, I was Equally prepared for either scenario and not surprised with anything.

Um, but I think, as you'll probably allude to and unpack more, the way the Thunder lost, it may have been in line with the trends that we saw in that series against the Spurs with Shay not being his most efficient, Chet Holmgren.

You know, struggling a lot against Victor Wambayama and them sorely needing guys like Jalen Williams and AJ Mitchell, but it's really uncharacteristic of what we saw this entire season outside of those matchups with the Spurs.

Shay obviously won his 2nd consecutive MVP award for a reason, but even when he had down games, there's always that supporting cast that could absorb it.

Uh, there have been key injuries throughout.

Thunder season, but that depth, uh, came into play, and we mostly saw Chet Holmgren be available and consistent on both sides of the floor.

So, uh, I think that illustrates that the Spurs are very unique and dangerous opponent that they'll probably face in future seasons.

Yeah, Shay was outstanding in game 7, 35 points, 12 of 21 from the floor, 2 of 5 from the three-point line, did go to the free throw line 11 times.

Um, 9 assists in this game as well.

So he did his part in 43 minutes, but he didn't get any help.

Like the two front court guys, Hartenstein and Holmgren combined for 11 points.

Uh, Lou Dort gives them 3.

Cason Wallace was fine.

Jalen Williams had 11, Caruso 12, that's fine.

But it didn't match the, The output, the firepower that San Antonio got.

All 5 of the Thunder starters finished in double figures.

Wemby had 22 and what, only 7 rebounds, I guess, not a huge number there.

Uh , but they got great bench support.

Keldon Johnson, 6th Man of the Year, 16 points.

Dylan Harper goes for, uh, so 11 points for Kelvin Johnson, 12 for Dylan Harper.

So just, just too much depth from San Antonio in this game, um, to, to overcome for an Oklahoma City team that was without, uh, Jalen Williams and, uh, and AJ Mitchell.

Uh, the Holmgren stuff is, is what I want to talk about though, because I, I don't think you can kind of understate the level of catastrophe this series was for Chet Holmgren.

Like this was What he is defined as this season.

And, and look, I know he had a great season against the Lakers.

He averaged 20 points per game, shot almost 61%, I think, from the field, but this was the matchup that they needed him to at least, you know, produce like three quarters of what Victor Wimbayama was going to produce.

He didn't produce a fraction of what Wemby did in game seven.

I mean, just an absolute disaster for, for Chet Holmgren.

He gets 4 points.

He's 1 of 2 from the floor, uh, 4 rebounds, 2 turnovers, 2 blocks, like a -3 overall.

I mean, just a, a, a mess.

Um, all series, Chet Holmgren was just dominated by Victor Wambayama.

Um, what did you think of, of the way this series played out for Chet?

Yeah, well, you outlined the stats pretty well, but I think it goes without saying defensively, he didn't have any business defending Victor Wambayama.

The low hanging fruit, the highlight reels where we're seeing Wemy posterize him, but it wasn't just those plays.

There's a lot of plays that Chet Holmgren seemed afraid to get involved with, involved in, at least to try to alter a shot or delay Victor Wambayama's decision making, and You can't do that.

I mean, I think with everyone facing Victor Wambayama, it's a losing proposition, but it's the old adage with any star players, how can you make things difficult?

And someone like Chet Holmgren, who's considered by many to be arguably the, well, not the 2nd best center in the league, that would be Nikole Jokic, but at least 2nd defensively.

You have to at least put a respectable effort, and that wasn't there.

Isaiah Hardenstein tried his best as well.

It was mostly, uh, it was mostly unsuccessful, but I think as it pertains to Chet Holmgren, not only was a very passive scoring game and passive defensive game, but I, I, I saw an element of fear and this hesitation to even get involved with the action.

Yeah, I mean.

Among other things, there's gonna be a ripple effect for Chet Holmgren where regardless of the numbers that he puts up next season.

Uh, I think you have a lot of people not willing to vote for him for like all defensive first team , not willing to give him the consideration for Defensive Player of the Year, um, just because we just saw 7 games where he didn't produce on that end of the floor.

And look, you know, this is where you make your defensive bones.

Like Victor Wambayama had an outstanding defensive series.

He was brilliant against Holmgren, against everybody else.

The, the fact that Oklahoma City, Couldn't put Chet Holmgren on Wambayama is a is, is a serious red flag.

Like that's a huge indictment.

This is your guy that was #2 in Defensive Player of the Year.

You're all NBA 3rd team big man and you're not even gonna play him on, on Wemby.

That That just showed that the coaching staff there just didn't have the trust in Chet.

Like they just didn't think he could do it.

And that's, that's a bad look for Holmgren.

Uh, look, he's not going anywhere.

Um, they're, they're not trading Chet Holmgren.

Like it's just not gonna happen.

Uh, what he does need to do, Well, there's a couple of things.

Like I, I don't think as overall, you, you completely overreact to what happened in this series because of the numbers he put up this season.

I think there are things you can do with his shot.

I think he's got to get it off quicker.

Uh, you know, there was a lot of hesitation with Holmgren.

I thought in the series, he's got to be able to catch and shoot a lot quicker.

That's something he can work on this offseason.

I think Oklahoma City didn't do him a ton of favors offensively by kind of sticking him in the corner.

Like, I, I think you got to try to run more stuff for him to try to get him into a rhythm, get that confidence going.

Um, I, I think that's something that the Thunder can work on as a staff.

But the most important thing, is to get him past this mental hurdle he has going up against Wembayama.

Like this, this isn't just one or one series.

It's like all season.

Like I, I forget how many games he played in the 5 games they played, but every time they played against Wemby, and he played, he just turtled.

He wasn't the same player.

He's got to work on that.

Like Wemby, you know, they're just zero fucks given Wembayama.

Like he, he just, he does, he doesn't care.

Like he is as mentally tough as they come, and he believes in every matchup, he's the best player on the floor.

And even when the games that he struggles, like he still believes it's on him, that it wasn't what somebody else did.

It's what he didn't do.

Like Chet's gotta discover.

Some of that moxie.

He's gotta discover some of that swagger, um, or else, look, and he's gotta discover it because like, yeah, it, it's one series, but this is this, the matchup that's gonna happen like maybe 5 years in a row.

Like it's gonna happen over and over again.

And the last thing that Chet Holmgren wants to turn into is like, Some version of like DeMar DeRozan in Toronto when they can't get past Cleveland.

Like you don't want to be, you don't want to be that guy.

So I, I think, I think as much as there are things you can fix in his game, I think there are things you can fix in the Oklahoma City, uh, system.

Mentally, he's got to get past that hurdle, man.

Like, because he looks at, it's like when he looks at Victor Wambayama, he gets scared.

He gets scared.

And, and Oklahoma City is not beating the Spurs if Chet Holmgren is playing like that.

Yeah, I mean, you alluded to it.

It's really overcoming the fear of failure.

And Chet Holmgren, I think, you know, when you talk to people around him and the Thunder organization, they felt like he turned a corner this past season of the fear of getting hurt again.

And it also helped that.

You know, he, he did add some strength and, and all that, but that also has to apply to what his defensive mindset.

With Victor Wambayama specifically, it, it's, it's losing proposition ahead of time of stopping and limiting him.

Victor Wabayama is so dominant, so it's more about how can you try to somehow Own this matchup so that he's wearing down throughout the rest of the game, at some point, at least delaying decision time reaction.

Then the other thing.

You talk a lot about Victor Wambayama's defensive prowess on Chet Holmgren .

It extends to everyone else too, as far as their decision making, driving to the basket, that's partly uh explains a little bit with Shea's numbers.

Same thing has to apply for Chet Holmgren.

He might not be the answer defensively to Victor Wambayama.

Actually, he won't be the answer defensively, but maybe he can shave off some of the numbers for everyone else that's driving to the basket.

I didn't see that level of effectiveness elsewhere either.

I, I think he's got to defend Wemiyama.

Like, I, I think for this team to have success against him, you can't hide him on a non-shooter on San Antonio or, or, you know, park him on the dunker spot.

Um, look, he, he's, he's never gonna be a bulky guy.

I do think there's probably more muscle that can go on his frame.

I think the people around him think that too, like 10 to 15 pounds more of muscle.

He's got to put that on.

Like, you now know, like Wemby's still getting bigger.

Like Wemby's 22 years old.

Like that guy.

God, what's he gonna look like at 25?

Like he's gonna be a monster.

Like you've got to match him.

You've got to get in the weight room and build up that lower body as best you can to give yourself a better base.

You've got to get in the weight room, build up that chest so you can wrestle with them, um, down there in the paint.

Like, you can't be getting ragdolled by this guy.

It's, it's, it's confidence for sure, but there are things you've got to do this offseason to To, to put yourself in a better position.

Now, the, the Thunder as a whole, like they've got some decisions to make because now, their roster gets really expensive.

You've got Shay Gildes Alexander on the max contract.

The first year of these fun maxes for Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren kick in next season.

You got 3 guys now on max contracts.

You've got Lou Dort on a big deal, Isaiah Hartenstein on a big deal.

Um, You know, fortunately for Oklahoma City, they've set up their roster with some team options.

Lou Dort being on a team option gives them some flexibility.

Hartenstein on a team option gives them some flexibility.

So, you know, I'm sure Sam Presty is now like 8 steps ahead of us in this conversation.

They know exactly what they're gonna do and how they're gonna do it, but the roster makeup, like how much do you see it changing going into next season?

Yeah, to your point, Chet Holmgren isn't going anywhere.

Obviously, Shay Gildes Alexander isn't going anywhere.

I wouldn't be surprised if they decide, even though Lou Dort's a very valued physical defender, that they find that as a cost saving mechanism, partly because they have some other great defensive wings in Alex Crusoe and Cassa Wallace.

Um, I think the other thing we have to keep in mind, you mentioned Sam Presty's 8 steps ahead of everyone at this point.

This already happened before this playoffs series because of the accumulation of draft picks.

They've already drafted.

Someone pretty special but just hasn't seen the floor yet because of different injuries with Nikola Topic, and he's considered, you know, a, a really high IQ kind of guard.

You look at this, uh, upcoming draft, they got the number 12, number 17, Thomas 37.

Thomas Sorber too, like that, he didn't play a minute this year.

That's, that was their first round draft pick from Georgetown last year, like a rebounding big, like, that's the guy they're gonna be looking to, to count on next season.

Yeah, no doubt.

And this year, or in about a month from now, their picks number 12, number 17, number 37, and, you know, you look at their success this past year, they, they've, it's been partly because they've picked so well in those selections.

I mean, Jalen Williams was number 12, um, you know, you go down the line, I think, uh, let's see, the other Jalen Williams was number 34, AJ Mitchell with number 38, so Sam Presty has a good track record with that.

You extend.

The, the accumulation of draft picks, I believe they have at least one first or second round pick for 2031.

So, I think with that, there is obviously a good amount of flexibility if they do want to make deals that include some of their current young players, just knowing that they're gonna have young players coming in in this year's draft and in the future.

But philosophically, knowing how Sam Presty operates, I, I would suspect that he would value.

The continuity and the youth card versus doing something like, oh, let's, let's mortgage all this stuff to get Giannis Antookopo, for example.

I think there, there could be changes, but it's gonna be more of the on the margin changes, and if there is a big deal, it's making sure that that continuity and youth and depth isn't severely compromised.

Yeah, you know, I, I've never gotten the vibe from talking to people in Oklahoma City that um Giannis was somebody that was on their radar, if for no other reason that like, it, it, it blows up your, your books, right?

You've got Shay on the full supermax contract.

You're gonna bring in Giannis, give him a supermax contract, and you're also gonna have Chet on a max contract.

Like you, you're not gonna be able to sign guys.

You're not gonna have any flexibility.

And, you know, Oklahoma City, if nothing else, they're gonna find a way to, be flexible this offseason.

I think that's the bare minimum that they do because, look, Isaiah Joe is someone that some people have deemed to be expendable.

Mark, he's a 42.5% 3-point shooter.

Like, you think there aren't like 20 teams in the league that wouldn't want to get their hands on a 6'4, 42.5% three-point shooter on 6 attempts per game.

Like, there's gonna be guys, teams that, that want that and are willing to give up.

Maybe it's one first, maybe it's a first plus some other stuff, like that's valuable.

Aaron Wiggins, a lot of people I talked to around the league think Aaron Wiggins, you know, you give him more time, he, he's gonna take.

Off.

Like he's, he's got the game there.

So these are expendable guys on their books that can bring back, bring some cap relief and can bring some draft, more draft capital back in return.

And you can make a little bit more room for Jarrett McCain to continue to get more minutes.

Um, you know, Wallace is still there, Caruso is still there.

I think Dort is probably the most interesting guy.

You probably can't bring him back.

At that, what is it, $20 million salary for next season.

You've got to try to get that number down.

But if you can't, like Lou Dort is another guy that there would be a bidding war for, you know, a 65, all defensive team guy who's shown he can make a 3.

Like, they've got guys that everybody wants a piece of.

Everybody wants a piece of these guys.

They're bench guys.

So I think if nothing else, they're gonna find ways to Get under this, this apron or the 2nd apron, I guess, maybe even the 1st 1 and add more draft capital.

The question is, Mark, Do they take that big swing?

I'm not even talking about a Giannis or somebody like that.

Like, do they package these draft picks and package even a Jalen Williams and try to get up to go get a Cam Boozer or get up to get, you know, one of these other high-level guys that are inside that top 4.

And, and I don't even know if there's a team up there willing to trade one of those top 4 picks, but I think if you dangle Jalen Williams, or even you dangle Chet Holmgren, You're gonna get people interested.

Memphis, would Memphis be interested in Jalen Williams plus some stuff?

Uh, probably.

Maybe you don't even need to throw in some stuff.

Like Jalen Williams is an all NBA guy who's 24 years old or whatever he is.

Like, yeah, they've got a chance to do, do some really interesting things this offseason if they're looking to make that big swing.

Do you think that's, you know, in, it, it, that's even a possibility that we could see this team swing for the fences with one of their stars to go get a, a different player?

I think everything's possible as long as the depth and some semblance of continuity is retained.

Now that hypothetical, would they do this for a top pick in this year's draft?

I think you have to consider that as a very good possibility because this draft is considered very robust.

And when you're looking at the top 3 of these picks, you know, people that I've talked to throughout the season, that they feel like you could flip.

These players in any order, Darren Peterson or AJ Tabana or or Cameron Boozer, but specifically Cameron Boozer is the player that's considered the most NBA ready player now on both ends of the floor.

There's not a feeling that he'll be the best player long term out of those three, but who could make an instant impact now?

It would be him.

So, I could see that happening philosophically, but I think to your original point about how Sam Presty operates and what they're doing.

It's not about blowing things up and, and all that, or, or swinging for the fences for this high risk, high reward deal.

If they do a big deal, it'll be done so because there's not a lot of risk involved because of what they didn't give up.

Yeah, um, well, I mean, I, I don't think they can do a big deal unless they give up a Jalen Williams or a Chad Holmgren.

Like, I, I don't, I mean, maybe you can package a bunch of picks to get a top 10 pick, uh, which may be something they decide to consider cause they got too many draft picks.

They have, they've, they have 2 in this year's.

Draft, even, even then you can't, you don't even get room for two guys on that roster, you know, much less want to use those picks.

Um, I think they have the ability to get inside the top 10, to get inside the top 4, to get one of the guys you mentioned, you, you're gonna have to give up one of those stars.

You're gonna have to give up.

Yeah, that, that, that part is understandable.

What I meant more was stripping all their draft assets, stripping a lot of their role players.

I think that's where the line is drawn.

No doubt if there's a big it's possible.

Like how do they even, yeah, like it's not possible to lose 2031.

Um, tons of picks, but like their depth in the backcourt is insane.

Like you can afford to, as much as it would be a gut punch to lose Lou Dort who might be reaching the level of having his jersey retired by the Thunder given how long he's been around, and his contributions, um, you know, maybe not, maybe not, but he's, he's right there on the borderline.

Um, you've got guys that can replace him.

Cason Wallace is an all defensive level guy.

Caruso still in his prime.

And McCain's coming up.

There's some other guys there that, you know, might maybe Topi is ready to play next year.

We don't know what his health situation really is.

Um, but you've, you've got the, the ability to, to do some really interesting things, uh, with this roster, especially with that, that backcourt.

Shay's gonna play 35 minutes a night, you know , you can figure out that other guard spot and You know, still be a 60+ win team in the Western Conference.

But I, I do think they'll, I, I think there's gonna be some, a lot of movement on that roster this offseason.

I do not think they run it back.

Like the one guy they have to bring back, and this is a separate conversation really, but like, Hardenstein is now a must bring back.

Like, you, you have, like in, in the era of Wemby.

You have to have a big like that.

You've got to have somebody that can muscle with him and, and, and give you 25 to 30 good minutes, you know, playing with him physically.

Um, a guy like Wemby, I think Mitchell Robinson is gonna be a sought after guy this offseason.

Like his value goes through the roof because that's another strong, you know, rebounding big that could battle Wimbayama.

Maybe we'll see some of that in this final series.

But I, I think Hardenstein, who also has a team option, whether they pick up that option or, uh, You know, let him go to re-sign him to a longer deal, which maybe they already have that figured out.

Uh, he's the must bring back guy to me.

Gotta bring him back to that team.

Yeah, I think it's gonna be the latter about re-signing at a a reasonable cap friendly deal, um, because that helps them shave a little bit with their payroll.

But to your point, he has been plug and play and really has fit so many hats.

His chemistry with Chet Holmgren is really good on the floor, and that's allowed the Thunder to kind of be unconventional in today's NBA of having two bigs at times, but it's mostly about You know, the ability for them to still have a big when Chet is off the floor.

Um, and he is one of the best passing big men outside of Nikola Jokic in the NBA, you know, people around the Thunder just feel like he has this, these such great instincts on finding the, the right guy at the right time, and they love his pick and roll chemistry with Shay.

So yeah, he is a, a must, uh, a guy that they must bring back, and this is also, I think ties into Some historical precedent during the time when Shaq was in the league and he was dominating.

All these teams would stockpile their resources on, OK, we're not gonna find a guy that can stop Shaq cause you can't, but how do we find some quality starting centers and backup bigs that can just try to wear him out, uh, and be physical with him.

And so that's kind of the new blueprint in today's NBA because of Victor Wambayama.

Yeah, interior bigs have become in vogue again.

They've become marketable.

It, it used to be, you gotta be a three-point shooting big to play in the NBA.

Now if you can rebound and wrestle with.

The 7'4, all NBA superstar, then you've got a lot of value, uh, in this league.

Uh, Mark Medina, good stuff, man.

Check Mark out over at Forbes, Fadeaway World, CBS LA Spectrum Sports Net, Fox Sports Radio, doing a little bit of everything for everybody out there.

Mark, I will let you go catch your flight.

Obviously, you are delayed, uh, sitting there at LAX.

Chris, I appreciate it.

I'll let you catch your flight for uh the NBA Finals.

I presume some boxing tournaments in between.

Gotta do it.