We Predict the Eastern Conference Over/Under Win Totals

This is the Open floor NBA podcast where we talk about the league and all the big stories that are going on in it.

Back with me this week, for the Monumental Sports Network, Fox Sports One and right here on this podcast, the great Rachel Nichols.

Hello, Rachel.

Hello, Chris.

What city in the country are you coming to us from?

I am in Boston right now, uh, parachuted into my house here.

I, was in.

Connecticut over on Monday, Sunday, Monday for NBC's orientation year two of the NBA on NBC.

Excited to have been, uh, invited back.

I just assumed that I'm a clerical error that they Said, all right, well, Mannix is still here, you know, some surprised faces.

I walked into the building at Stanford.

Mannix is here.

Guess he's part of the team again.

So, uh, excited to be doing that, uh, once more for NBC as we get ready just about a week away from, uh, the season.

I know it's crazy.

Yeah, it's, it's come out pretty fast.

I mean, like, what is it?

It's an abbreviated number of exhibition games , right?

Like they shorten that schedule and They're getting right into the regular season.

Tuesday night, tripleheader on NBC.

They've got a 3 p.m. game.

Celtics Pistons 3 p.m. Eastern on NBC.

The, uh, rare afternoon game in the opener.

Usually, it's a bunch of primetime games, but they're going early on that slate to see if they can uh capitalize on maybe a younger audience that's watching that night.

I like it.

It's gonna be fun to see.

All right, uh, those two later matchups are insane, so it's gonna be really fun.

Knicks Sixers.

LeBron doesn't need to he a pad in.

He can just hang out in, uh, New York, and, um, I, I think the best game of the night is, is Spurs Thunder, uh.

Yeah.

You know, Chet versus Wemby, Shay versus Wemby for the MVP chase begins in earnest.

Um, you know, the two best teams in the Western Conference by far.

Uh, I think that's gonna be a fun matchup as well.

I'll be in San Antonio.

I'm gonna go down.

And, uh, watch that opener live and, uh, in person.

Um, all right, uh, on this episode, I want to, uh, do a little predictions, uh, some predictions on the season.

I wanna look at the over-unders for, uh, the teams in the Eastern Conference.

We'll look at the Western Conference, uh, next week.

But Eastern Conference overrunners, I wanna run through.

Uh, these teams that are, uh, have their, their overruns.

And I don't wanna go in alphabetical order, uh, with this group if we can.

I don't wanna Go by conference.

We'll just go alphabetical order with these teams.

So let's start, Rachel, with Atlanta.

Uh, 46 wins in the 25, 26 season.

Uh, they're over-under.

These over-unders are courtesy of FanDuel, by the way.

Uh, the over-under is 44.5. They, uh, added Lou Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Dorian Finney Smith.

They lost Zach Risohet, Jonathan Kainga, Buddy Hield, Ryan Nemhardt.

Uh, and, you know, the oddsmakers got them right around the same win total as last season.

Uh, are you going over or under the Atlanta Hawks 44.5?

Right off the bat, you're going to one of the ones that I agonized over, Chris.

I just, I don't know what this team is gonna look like, so that makes it a little tougher.

But because the competition in the East is going to be more significant this year, that's where I'm gonna fall back on throughout this podcast if I don't really, I can't make a call.

So, because I think the competition is gonna be tougher in the East, because I'm not entirely sure how Lou Dort is gonna fit in.

To the starting lineup, you obviously need him on the floor.

The reason you got him is he guards the other team's best player, but it changes what they can do on the floor if the way that Quinn Snyder likes to coach.

So, I, I, I'm gonna go under, but only because I just think the competition around them is more significant.

And if we're saying how will they do compared to their 46 wins last year, it's gonna be a little less for everyone, I think.

Yeah, I'm gonna go under as well.

Um, I, I think they have a chance to be.

Really tough defensively.

I mean, if you look at the wings that they have with Alexander Walker, Daniels, now you got Dort in that mix.

Um, I also think that Aaron Wiggins is a candidate for most improved.

I mean, that's a guy that can play and now he's presumably going to get an expanded role, and I, I've been hearing some pretty good things and, uh, they're liking Aaron Wiggins a lot down there in Atlanta.

My issue with them.

It is like offensive shot creation.

Um, I, I think it's a lot of pressure on Jalen Johnson to take his game up to another level and continue to grow as a player.

There's a lot of pressure on CJ McCollum to continue to be a consistent playmaker at the point guard position.

I, I think offensively they're gonna have some ups and downs this season and they're gonna have to grind out some wins at the defensive end of the floor to Get back to that 46-ish win total.

So I'm gonna go with the under.

I'm gonna say like early 40s for Atlanta.

I'm gonna take the under on that one.

All right, we're both under .

I'm taking them both under on that one.

all right, uh, let's go to the Boston Celtics.

Uh, 56 wins for the Celtics last year, one of the surprise teams in the NBA.

Uh, they add Paul George, Mitchell Robinson, Mike Conley.

They lose Jalen Brown, and I guess you can say they lost Nikola Vusovich, though I don't think they consider that big a loss.

Um, the odds, the Vegas oddsmakers, they have the Celtics at 49.5. So I was shocked at this sub 50 win team , Rachel, is what the oddsmakers have the Celtics as.

You're taking the over the under on Boston.

I am going over.

I'm going passionately over on this one because I think Joe Missoula teams are built, and when I say this, it is not a, a rip on how they do in the playoffs.

I'm only saying that if we look at the regular season in its entirety, they are built for this regular season.

This is a team that just knows how to play, and obviously, Jalen Brown is a huge loss.

I respect him so much as a player, but I just think Joe Missoula can plug and play, and we saw that this past year.

And I, I just have faith that especially during a regular season run, this is where this team can excel in a way others can't with diminished personnel, and I'm taking the over.

Yeah, I, I'm taking the over and I'm , uh, I'm hammering that over as well.

Um, yes, I, I, I look, the Celtics, I agree with you.

They are a team that is built to have a lot of regular season success.

They are deep, going 1011 guys deep with real NBA rotation players, which is going to matter in the regular season .

Um, the, the addition of Mitchell Robinson, you know, pluses up that front court, gives them a frontline rebounding guy.

Uh, Paul George got my questions about his ability to deliver in the playoffs, but in the regular season, if they can squeeze 60 wins out of George, uh, He's gonna be a good complimentary piece to Jayson Tatum.

Tatum gonna be playing with a chip on his shoulder all season long, trying to show everybody that he's capable of being the kind of alpha that he believes that he is.

I think you're gonna get organic growth from Baylor Shireman, from Jordan Walsh, from Hugo Gonzalez.

You've still got Peyton Pritchard there, who I think is gonna have a big year.

Derrick White, um, even with the shooting woes last year, was a really consistent defensive player and playmaker.

Um, look, in the playoffs, like, do I think they're gonna have some problems with shot creation?

Yeah, I do.

I do think they have some issues there, but I think in the regular season, that depth, uh, this personnel, that coach, I think they're gonna get close to that.

They're gonna get close to that 56 win mark.

Like they may not get to 56, but 54, 55, I can see that easily.

So if they're healthy, uh, I, I, I think they're, they're in the mid-50s.

Couldn't agree more.

Yeah, they're, they're right there.

That's a, that's a good team.

All right, um, next up on the list, let's go with the Brooklyn Nets.

Uh, 20 wins last year in the 25, 26 season.

Second straight year, they went for 20-ish.

Uh, they add Julius Randall, they add Keyon Ellis, they add Mo Wagner.

They get, uh, Miguel Brown Jr.

in the draft.

Uh, Joshua Jefferson also in the draft.

They lose Nick, Nick Claxton and Zaire Williams.

Vegas has them at 24.5. So they're anticipating some improvements from Brooklyn.

Uh, you're going over or under on the Brooklyn Nets.

I was really hoping when I reached Brooklyn on the odd sheet that the over-under would be like 22, because I feel like then I could go over.

At 24.5, I just feel this is another team that I thought was real toss up, um.

I'll, I, I was about to sail back the upside and go over, but that's really hard for me again in this like more competitive east.

So, like sticking to my rule of when I, it's a toss-up, I'm gonna go under because of the competition in the east, I'm gonna go under.

Uh, I'm gonna go over on this one.

I really like the potential of that backcourt.

Um, Igor Demon, I think, is a real player.

I think him and Brown, um, are going to be a dynamic backcourt as the season develops.

I, I think the roster's weird.

Um, does Michael Porter Junior get traded at midseason?

Probably, you know, we probably that was went into my thinking.

But like if he's around, like he's a big time shot maker.

Julius Randall, um, he's gonna put up numbers for this team.

Uh, yeah, Keyon Ellis off the bench.

Noah Clowney is still around, um.

I look, I, I don't think they're a 30-win team , but can I see them getting to 26, 27?

Yeah, I think they can get in that range.

Um, that's what's the first one we disagree on.

Yeah, I'm gonna go over.

I, I just, I like the backcourt .

I watched that game against the 76ers and I watched them and, and I think he's a real guy.

I don't think he's a true point guard, but I don't think he has to be with this group.

Look , I could just as easily upset over.

I mean, this team, I just don't know what they're gonna be.

It's hard to know if injuries to other teams are gonna give some of these teams more wins because last year, of course, the last couple of years, we saw teams pick up.

I don't know, 8 to 10 wins because teams were tanking, right?

So, that's not gonna happen this year, but then you go back to the more regular thing, which is injuries.

So, if they stay healthy and you've got a handful of teams that we think are gonna win a bunch of games, suffer because of injuries, Brooklyn is really poised to take advantage of that.

I just don't know if it's full strength versus full strength.

I'm willing to buy a 5 game improvement over last year in an Eastern Conference that is going to be harder, but I love Julius Randall as a player, and I, I think as long as Michael Porter Jr.

is around, of course he will help, but I do anticipate him not being around all season.

Yeah, I like Jordy Fernandez as a coach too.

I know he hasn't won a lot of games, but Everyone I talked to in the business says he's really good and if this team's at full strength, if this team's trying to win games, which again, because of this new lottery system, there is no upside whatsoever to pulling the chute and being the worst team in the NBA, um, I, I think they've got the potential to creep up into those mid to high twenties and be an improved team.

Uh, from last year, a lot of it's gonna depend on these young guys, how big a leap they take, how quickly they develop.

Do they mesh with some of these veterans that are probably not in the long-term plans of the Nets?

Uh, but I think they're, they're mid-20s, mid-20s.

I think they get over that, uh, 24.5 number.

All right, uh, Charlotte, a team that, uh, you know, kind of cut up its roster this year.

We got Naz Reed, Dennis Schroeder.

Uh, Grayson Allen, Royce O'Neal, uh, they're added to the mix.

LaMelo Ball is gone.

Miles Bridges is gone.

Josh Green is gone.

Um, look, they, they sold high.

I thought, I've said this before, they sold high on LaMelo Ball.

They sold high on Miles Bridges, or at least as high as they could.

And they're now kind of retooling this thing around Con Knipple, um, and Brandon Miller, I guess.

They won 44 games last year.

Vegas has them at 37.5. So a 6 plus.

Game decline is what Vegas is predicting there .

Uh, you're going over under 37.5. I'm gonna be optimistic.

I'm gonna go over.

I, I think that this team has a lot more to it than just LaMelo Ball.

I like K Knipple.

I think he's poised to take a leap and 6 games is a lot to drop.

So I'm gonna go over, barely, barely over, but barely over.

Uh, I, I'm gonna go under on the Hornets.

Um, I get what they did this offseason.

Um, it seemed unusual at the time to, you know, sell off good young players like Ball and Bridges, but You know, they, they really had to, to kind of.

Duct tape LaMelo together to get him to the finish line last year.

Keeping him under 30 minutes per game.

And I, I can see why they didn't want to go all in on investing on him as their franchise player and they were able to get real assets back in terms of players and capital, uh, draft capital from Minnesota in that deal.

So I get that.

Same thing with Bridges.

Um, I, I, I think they've got some pieces there in Charlotte.

I think Knippel's really good.

I think Brandon Miller is, is good.

I don't know exactly how good.

Uh, Naz Reed, I think he's gonna be a good fit at the power forward position.

I, Kobe White.

You know, good scoring guard.

Is he able to duplicate what LaMelo did?

I, I don't think so.

Dennis Schroder's there on like his 47th team.

Um, Grayson Allen is there.

He's a shotmaker.

Like I, I, I think they have the potential to be good, but I think they're gonna come in a little bit under.

I think like 35, 36 wins for Charlotte this year.

And that's partly because , as you mentioned, like the, the Eastern Conference is really good.

Like there's a lot of good teams out there and I think Charlotte, um, He's gonna have a tough time some nights.

Unless Knippel takes a big step, maybe he will.

Brandon Miller takes a big step, maybe he will .

I'm gonna go slightly under on, uh, the Charlotte Hornets.

All right, the Chicago Bulls, 31 wins last year.

Evan Turner and I were in Chicago this week.

We were talking about the Bulls and how they have some direction to this team finally with the front office, with the coaching staff.

They've got a young roster.

Um, they just seem like they've, they've reestablished some direction.

Uh, the oddsmakers have them at 29.5 wins after they add Nick Claxton, Norman Powell, Buddy Hield, Caleb Wilson comes in as a rookie.

They lose Simons, Sexton, Nick Richards.

Um, what do you think?

The oddsmakers basically have them at kind of right around where they were last year, maybe a little bit less.

Uh, what do you think at 29.5?

I, I gotta say, this to me is a prove it situation.

Until the Chicago Bulls show me they know what they're doing collectively as an organization, I'm not gonna bet them.

I'm not gonna give them the benefit of the doubt because my heart has been broken too many times by this team, and they're not even my team.

It, it's just has felt so fruitless for so long.

I like Nick Claxton, but he's had some injury issues.

I think he's missed.

The entire preseason, correct?

And status for the season opener is a little unsure.

I like Tiago Splitter a lot.

I thought he did a lot with less than people expected last year.

And I'm eager to see what he can do there.

I am hopeful.

But I'm not gonna say, oh, they're going over until I see it work.

So, I'm happy to be wrong on this.

By the time we get to the end of the season, I will be actually happy to be wrong, but until I get there, I can't get there.

I'm gonna go over on the Bulls.

Um, look how I positive you're being today, Chris.

This is unlike you.

I think they cracked 30 wins.

Uh, I'm not saying they're gonna be great or even a play team, but I, I think they cracked 30 wins.

Um, I watched them play in Chicago against Memphis.

I watched some of that game against Denver.

Uh, there's obviously going to be some growing pains with Caleb Wilson.

Um, you know, he's maybe he's not physically ready to be an everyday forward.

Uh, but he's a super talented kid, you know, aggressive, got some moxie to him.

I think he's gonna be a good defensive player, really good defensive player .

Um, I like him a lot.

Uh, Buli, like what is he?

I don't know, but he's a I, I think he's really good.

Is he a third option on a really good team?

Probably, but I think he's a really good player.

Giddy, I think, has a chance to compete for an All-Star spot this year.

I mean , a 68 point guard.

I mean, he's, he's really good.

I, I love the Powell edition.

Like Powell proved last year in Miami, he can kind of fit into whatever situation you want to put him in and be productive.

So I, I like this team.

I don't love their bench like Patrick Williams, like ET and I talked about this.

I, uh, I mean, the Patrick Williams experiment seems to be at an end.

I'm not even sure he's gonna be part of the rotation.

Okoro's OK.

Um, you know, Jalen Smith is there, uh, Trey Jones, uh, they're fine.

Like, I don't think they're gonna be like close to 500, but I like the rotation enough and I like Powell's ability to fit in enough to make me believe they cracked that 29.5 wins.

Does Powell finish the season in Chicago?

I'm not sure he does I don't know.

I mean, I didn't even think of that.

Like, is he?

I mean, the 2nd year is a team option.

Jerry Reinsdorf has said, I'm not gonna pay the luxury tax unless we're a contender, meaning a contender for a title.

This team is not gonna be a contender for a title.

So, that to me says that they will at least explore what they can get at the trade deadline for Norm Powell.

So, I, I just, that's another one of the things where the bowls circus that we've seen for the last, I don't know, I wanted to say 5 years, but is it 10 years?

Um, I, I just, I don't trust it.

Yeah, I hope they hold on to him because I, I actually think, I hope so too, you know, if, if he, look, he's been healthy, um, if he stays healthy, if Giddy stays healthy, if, you know, Buzalla stays healthy, like that's a pretty decent 123 there, like not playoff contender, championship contender 123, but that's pretty good.

And if Caleb Wilson develops faster than most rookies do, um.

You know, they could be surprising.

I think they cracked that 29.5 wins.

I think they're at, at over 30 wins.

All right, Cleveland, uh, 52 wins last year.

They add Peyton Watson, they add Cam Whitmore.

Uh, they lose Max Strus, they lose Schroeder, uh, Keyon Ellis, Dean Wade, which is a big loss, uh, among others.

You know, the oddsmakers have them taking a pretty big fall.

They go from 52 wins last year to predicted to have 47.5. Uh, what do you think?

Going over under 47.5 with the Cavs?

I'm going over just because oddsmakers have given us a big cushion from what they had last year.

I like the Peyton Watson edition.

I think James Harden holds up in the regular season, especially when they can get him the rest they need.

Donovan Mitchell is really, really, really good at playing basketball, and I have a lot of faith in him, especially as they face weaker teams.

So, I'm going over.

I, I'm not saying they're gonna win the title, but I do think they're gonna go over that win total cause it's so much further down than last season.

Yeah, I think they go over as well.

Um, maybe they don't crack 50, but 49-ish, I think is certainly realistic.

Um, a lot of it's gonna depend on Evan Mobley and how he continues to develop.

He's kind of stagnated over the last year or so where he's still a really good defensive player, but he's an erratic offensive player.

Some nights they're great, some nights they're not.

Like, can he develop a level of consistency offensively?

Can he continue to expand his game?

Still young enough, still talented enough, like him a lot.

Uh, how does he develop?

I think the Watson edition is really good.

Like they, they wanted that guy.

They paid a premium for that guy.

They're spending on this roster and Harden, I've got my issues with Harden in the playoffs.

Everybody does, but in the regular season, he is a proven commodity.

So I think the Cavs go over.

I think they're competing for one of the top 2 or 3 seeds in the Eastern Conference.

Um, and then we'll see what they look like in the playoffs.

The regular season, I think they go over that 47.5 wins.

Um, all right, Detroit.

Talk about the biggest fall.

I think this is the biggest drop of, yeah, this is the biggest drop of any team in the, uh, in the prediction, uh, and, and when it comes to predictions.

Uh, 60 wins last season.

Uh, they add John Collins, they add Isaiah Joe, they add Tour and Prince.

Uh, they lose Tobias Harris, Isaiah Stewart, Caris LeVert.

Uh, oddsmakers have them going from 60 and the over-under is 49.5. What do you think?

Over-under 49.5 for the Pistons.

I mean , over.

I, I don't expect them to hit 60 wins again, but again, we're talking about the regular season.

This is a, a great defense.

I, I just, I don't know.

I, I think that they definitely have holes.

I've talked about it on several of our pods.

They still haven't gotten someone that's gonna compliment Cade Cunningham in the way they need to, but again, in the regular season.

I think they just have the advantage over a lot of teams.

They play so hard, just that in general, you know, when teams are in what the dog days of February and March, and they don't want to show up, and certainly in Detroit, when they come to Detroit, and it's still cold and rainy and all of the things.

I just think that they are an over team.

I don't think they're gonna hit 60 again, but I, I do say during the regular season, they're gonna hit the over, and I really hope.

That they can make a trade to do what they, everybody knows they need to do.

Well, the name obviously to watch is Kyrie Irving.

Um, he makes the most sense in Detroit.

The Pistons, they hung on to some of their assets with some, after some of the deals that they did make.

Um, they can probably make an interesting offer to Dallas for Kyrie and Kyrie as That secondary scorer opposite Cade Cunningham just makes all the sense in the world and it, it, it gives them the kind of weapon they didn't have last year and they don't look like they have this year.

Uh, the roster though as currently constituted, I'm gonna go with the over but it's not much.

It like, I, I think they can get to 50, 51, but I do think there's an 8, 9-game drop off coming.

Um, I, I don't think they, I don't think they improved as a team.

Um, you know, Isaiah Stewart.

Kind of crazy out there, but part of that team's identity in the locker room, really close with Jalen Duran.

Jalen Duran said all the right things at that press conference last week, but is there a hangover from these contentious contract talks?

And look, Did the teams figure something out about Duran in the playoffs?

Like, is there a new way to play him , the way that Wendell Carter played him in the Magic series, the way that the Cavs played him in their series, um, or, or was it just a couple of bad matchups for Duran?

Like, what's the, does he take go up or down?

Um, with this next room, I like Isaiah Joe, but I think that the loss of Tobias Harris both in that locker room and on the court is, is a real loss.

So I think they're, I think they're a weaker team.

Um, do they go all the way down to 49?

No, I don't think they do that.

I think they get to, they get to 50.

They're somewhere inside the top four, but, you know, they're, they're a team that, like you said, they do need to make a trade, um, if they want to be a real contender, uh, in the Eastern Conference.

All right, Indiana.

Uh, nineteen-win team last year as they were kind of taking the gap year with Tyrese Halliburton, uh, being hurt.

They add Kelly Oubre Junior, uh, Larry Nance, of course , getting Halliburton back is the big addition there.

Uh, Zubach, of course, there now as well.

Um, this is a big question when I talk to people around the league, like does Indiana pick up where it left off in the 24 or the 25, 26 season or 24, 25 season when we got to the finals.

19 wins last year, they're projected at 43.5 this year, which would be a 24.5 game improvement but still puts them kind of in the middle of the pack.

Uh, over under 43.5 for Indiana.

I'm gonna have faith in Tyrese Halliburton's health, leg, whatever we're calling it, and I'm gonna say over.

I, I just don't think the jump from last year even means anything when your best player is gone and collectively you're just sort of not emphasizing winning in the way that you might.

I, I just, I, I think that he is a stud.

I think that he is in the exact position he likes to be in, which is everybody thinking he's not gonna be able to do what he thinks he's gonna be able to do.

For a team that made the finals and almost won it two years ago.

There's just been such a drop off in confidence around the league about him and them.

I, I just like the idea of fighting their way out of it.

Rick Carlisle is a great coach, especially for regular season.

I just know, I think he knows how to hit the right button, so.

The increase, the improvement from last season , it, it just doesn't mean anything to me.

And so, therefore, I'm gonna take the over.

So they were a 50-win team in 24, 25, 4th in the Eastern Conference when they made that run to the finals.

So they were, you know, not the runaway favorites to get to the finals by any stretch and not a great team when they went on or considered a great team when they went on that run.

Um.

I, I, I wanna say over as well.

But again, it's like Detroit.

I think they're like 1 or 2 games over.

I don't think they're a 50-win team this year.

Um, I think there's going to be an adjustment period for Halliburton coming back.

I, I don't think he's gonna pick up and be the guy that he left off with uh at the finals in 25.

Uh, Zubach, really good player, really different player than what Miles Turner was.

Like, does Rick Carlisle have maybe another reinvention, uh, in his bag for how this team's gonna be offensively because I don't think they can play the exact same way with Zubach, who's more of a paint-oriented big.

Uh, taking the place of Miles Turner.

I, I still like Siaam.

I still like Naismith.

I still like Nimhard.

Uh, I think Oubre is a kind of a Swiss Army knife playing off the bench.

TJ McConnell, still TJ McConnell.

Obie Topping is still there.

Jerris Walker is still there.

Like they're, they're good.

I think they're around 45 wins, so I am gonna take the over, but I don't think it's, it's gonna be by, by that much.

Um, all right.

Another kind of polarizing team, if you will.

The Miami Heat, 43 wins last year.

They make the big trade this offseason.

They get Giannis Tendokopo, but the oddsmakers.

They've only got them 2.5 wins better this year.

45.5 are the odds for the Miami Heat.

They get Bobby Portis, Klay Thompson, Tim Hardaway Jr.

They lose Tyler Hero, they lose Norman Powell, Khalil Ware, Jaime Hasquez, uh, Yakoonish, basically all their depth.

Uh, what do you think?

Like, you know, Vegas doesn't love Miami's chances of being a great regular season team even though they picked up, uh, a pretty great player.

This is one of those odds that I feel like is so influenced by where the betting line is, by where the money is coming in from fans, that I, I was very surprised to see this number as low as it was.

I, I don't think they're gonna blow the Eastern Conference away, but I think there is low confidence about them, not just among insider.

Fighters, but among fans of the game and so therefore, there's not as much money coming in and that's how the line moves often.

And I, I just, I gotta go with the over on this team.

You add Giannis Antetokopo.

I, I just, I don't understand why that is not making people think this will be a better team than it was last year.

How is that possible?

I don't know.

I mean, this is a tough one cause I am not bullish on the heat.

Um.

I, I listen when Pat Riley talks and Pat Riley in the offseason said we needed more playmaking, um, shot creation.

I'm kind of paraphrasing or combining some things there.

Um, I don't think they got it.

Um, I think Damian Mitchell is a high-level defensive guard.

Uh, but is he a starting point guard?

Uh, I don't know.

Klay Thompson, what does he have left?

Um, look, it, it's, whenever I see one of these guys become available via buyout like Klay Thompson got and he signed somewhere and there's this big celebration.

Like, how often does that work out?

Like how often does the player with the big name who's on the back end of his career live up to the expectations?

Wiggins is fine, not a shot creator.

Um, Tim Hardaway Junior, shot maker, like, he's a good, he's a really good player in Denver last year.

I, I just, I, I don't know where the consistent offense comes from with Miami.

Like, can Mitchell make shots?

Can Thompson?

Make the kind of shots we're used to seeing him make during his better years.

Wiggins, same thing.

Um, And, and Giannis and Bam, those are two guys on the front line that are not 3-point shooters.

Like they're just not.

Like, you know, every team in the league is gonna look at Giannis and Bam and say, if you want to shoot 3s, go ahead.

Go ahead and do that.

We're fine with that.

I just, look, Erik Spoelstra might be the best coach in the NBA.

So, and look, and he's, he's evolved in ways that Rick Carlisle's evolved over the years.

Like that offense last year, that Noah LaRoche offense that they ran, you know, kind of came out of nowhere.

Um, I, I, I need to see more cause right now, this roster to me doesn't have enough shot-making and shot creation for me to think they are going to be in the middle of the pack or above in the Eastern Conference.

Much as I love Giannis.

It's also the variable and I guess we're not really factoring in, in injuries, but Giannis has been hurt a lot the last couple of years.

He has, but not as much during the regular season.

You're right.

You're right.

End of regular season, which is unfortunate for, for Milwaukee.

Um, I, I, I'm gonna go.

Under cause I'm gonna have them at 45 wins, which will put them right at the under.

So I think they're good.

I think they're a playoff team.

I don't think they're a top half of the Eastern Conference team.

Uh, and I fully, uh, I'm ready to get cooked by Miami Heat fans, um, that consistently, uh, feel offended that they're not paid enough attention to in their team and, and all that.

But I, like, I love the front line.

I think they, look, defensively, like, again, another team I think can grind out some wins if they wanted to.

Like Giannis and Bam on that front line.

Good luck getting a bucket in the paint.

Daveon Mitchell, big-time defender.

Andrew Wiggins, really good defender.

They've got some guys there, the personnel to be a really good defensive team.

It's like offensively though, like what are they gonna look like?

Are you gonna put the ball in Giannis's hands and just say, get downhill for us and shot create that way?

I don't know.

Like, I don't know.

That's, that's they're to me a pretty big wild card in the Eastern Conference.

All right, let's talk about Milwaukee.

Uh, 32 wins last year.

They, uh, traded Giannis, obviously revamped their team.

Vegas got them at 24.5. Tyler Hero was there back home.

Khalil Ware, Jaime Haquez, all the guys who used to be in Miami.

They lose Giannis, Bobby Portis, T and Prince, uh, 8, around 8 losses, 88 extra losses on their, uh, their, uh, their docket there, Rachel, what do you think?

I gotta take the under.

I, I just think you lose a player like Gianniscent Teopo.

Tyler Harrows not, he's not picking up for that.

I mean, I like what he said during the preseason.

He said, oh, it's tougher here than it is in Miami.

It, you know , it's better than the heat culture, but it's not actually.

And so I, I gotta take the under on these guys.

Yeah, I'm gonna take the under as well, um.

I think it's close cause I think, uh, Taylor Jenkins is a really good coach and I think not having the pressure.

Of like having to tank.

I think they've got some guys that can play, but 24 wins sounds about right for me, uh, in Miami.

All right.

The defending champs, the New York Knicks, 53 wins last year.

They add Andre Drummond, they lose Mitchell Robinson, Jerry Jeremy Soshan already, Soshan, sorry.

Ariel Hakportti, uh, also gone as well.

Vegas got him at 51.5. Rachel, what do you think?

I'm going over, man.

The champions always get the benefit of the doubt for me, you know that after all these years of doing this together.

I, I just, I think they're gonna, you know, last season, you have to remember, they had so many ups and downs.

That's what got lost in the championship run because it was so dominant, but they lost a lot of games last year that they should have won, and I think those are the kinds of games that they will make up for this season because they are clicking, and they know what's up.

I, I, I think Mitchell Robinson is definitely a loss, but I, I just have faith.

I'm gonna say over.

I'm going under, um, Robinson's not by much, like 49, I would say it probably happened there.

Uh, Robinson's a big loss, and now that, uh, You know, they lose Huck Porty, that's a loss as well.

You're banking on Andre Drummond being able to give you those kind of consistent minutes.

But moreover, like, I do think there's likely to be some kind of championship hangover and maybe I'm being a prisoner of the moment, but the vibes don't feel like they're that great right now with all these contract extensions kind of going nowhere and, you know, the Knicks putting it out there that they're not gonna do extension talk right now.

Towns certainly doesn't sound pleased at, at all this.

I'm sure.

Uh, Josh Hart isn't pleased.

Deuce McBride isn't pleased.

I don't know, maybe Tyler Coli isn't pleased.

I don't know.

But like I think there, there's a little bit of, of, uh, dissatisfaction in New York that these guys weren't rewarded for their championship march.

So I'm gonna go in the high 40s, uh, for the Knicks.

Still a dangerous playoff team and I'm going high 40s there.

Orlando Magic, 45 wins last year, 44.5 they're listed at.

This year, they add Vusovich, they lose Wagner , but most importantly, they add Sean Sweeney, who is the new head coach down there.

Vegas has them right around the same level they were last year.

Rachel, you're going over or under.

I'm going barely over, barely, just a little bit over, just because a healthy Franz Franz Wagner, which we have to assume health in all of these conversations, right?

There will be injuries, but we have to assume health, and I'm assuming that a guy who played 34 games last season is going to play more.

So I, I just I think that they are gonna do better than they did, but I also think it's gonna be by a little bit.

Yeah, I'm going over, but I'm going.

Moreover, you're going way over, uh, I'm going to 50.

I think they're a 50 win team this year .

Um, they, they are the last couple of years.

Injuries, inconsistency.

I felt they have not lived up to their potential.

Um, if they're healthy, I think Sweeney is the right coach for that team.

I think he's going to coach them hard.

I think he's going to get more out of them.

They still have flaws, not enough shooting.

That's a problem.

Is Jalen Suggs a true point guard?

Probably not.

So they've got some playmaking issues there, but they can be a nasty defensive team, and I think that's gonna be enough to get them to 50 wins and put them.

Inside the top 5, they're a top 5 team in the Eastern Conference this year.

I, I'm bullish again.

I'm dying on this Orlando Magic Hill over and over again.

I was gonna say for this is like 3 years in a row, 3 years in a row.

I've just been a believer in the Magic.

Maybe this is the year at some point you've got to be right, Chris, at, at some point, but this is the final year.

If they've stumbled this year, I'm jumping off the.

Bandwagon.

Uh, Philadelphia, we know what they did.

LeBron James is in, Jalen Brown is in.

Anthony Simons .

They lose Paul George, Quentin Grimes, Oubre Junior, but they are star-studded, Rachel, and Vegas has them going from 45 wins last year, which is kind of a lost year to 50.5, uh, this year.

What do you think?

I'm gonna go under, but barely, barely under.

This was another real toss up for me, so I'm going with my rule of, hey, the east is tougher this year.

I think this is going to be a very, very powerful playoff team.

I think when it counts in the postseason, they are gonna be ridiculously dangerous.

During the regular season, I see them resting a lot of their guys, especially the older two guys, just so they can have that postseason run.

So I don't think LeBron is gonna play as much as he did last year.

I don't.

I don't think Joel Embiid is gonna play as many games as some people expect because they want to keep those guys healthy.

Now, of course, we have seen when they're off the floor, Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, a lot of these guys can still do their thing, but I'm gonna say barely under in a tougher East with the caveat that I think they're gonna make a strong run in the playoffs.

Yeah, I'm with you on this.

The, the barely under 48, 49 wins sounds right to me.

I think it's gonna look clunky early on, and I think there's gonna be some like drama, you know, early on.

We already had like, I mean, I didn't have Mike Breen creating drama on my bingo card with, uh, with the Sixers, but like we're gonna have some of that with this team, some big personalities there, uh, mismatched parts a little bit.

I, I think they're the kind of team.

That's gonna look really good in March and April.

And that's why I think they're gonna make a run.

That's why I have them going to the, the finals.

But I think early on, it's gonna be a little bit messy and they're gonna wind up having to get to the finals from one of those middle seeds in the, uh, Eastern Conference.

All right, Toronto, 46 wins last year.

They add Kawhi Leonard, they lose Brandon Ingraham, Grady Dick, uh, Mamakelavili.

Um, but the oddsmakers got them right around the same number, 45.5. What do you think?

Over or under?

This is like the sweetheart pick from NBA insider people.

I mean, everyone just is so excited to see the Raptors.

I think Kawhi Leonard is not gonna play as much as you think.

You and I live in LA and we've seen what happens with him health-wise.

He is not afraid to take games off or to rest and baby an injury for a while because he wants to be ready for the postseason and he doesn't want to get hurt in a big way again.

I, I, I'm gonna take the under uh.

It's not cause I don't have faith in them.

I just think that everyone is a little too high on them.

Yeah, I, I'm gonna go , I'm gonna go over.

I'm gonna go over and like, yeah, everything is predicated on Kawhi's health, but he's with the organization that knows how to deal with him better than any other.

Like they, they've done the Kawhi Leonard load management stuff and if he's healthy and able to give them 65+ games, like he's exactly what they need.

Like exactly he's gonna play more than 65 games, 60, 60 games.

If there's a 6 in front of it, they're gonna have a parade, you know, at the end of the regular season.

They will.

Like, I, I think, I think they're gonna get there.

I think, and like I like, I, I like the mix.

I like what he's able to do with the rest of that team.

Like it takes more pressure off Scotty Barnes.

He can be an offensive hub.

They're gonna be great on the perimeter defensively with Kawhi and Barnes, uh, as a 12 punch there.

Um, I, I, I like them.

I, I like them a lot.

Look, and defensively, I know people at Toronto were like, I, I said this a couple of times, like they, they needed him for defense.

They do.

Like people in Toronto have texted me and been like .

You know, yeah, we were, I think they were 5th defensively last year.

They were kind of average in the playoffs.

Um, they had a couple, a few games in that first round where they gave a bunch of points.

Um, but people in Toronto have texted me and been like, you know , the 18-19 team was a championship defensive team.

Last year was not a championship defensive team.

Like this year, you get Kawhi, you have Barnes.

Those are two championship-level defensive wings.

I like them to go over.

I think they flirt with 50 wins, but they go over.

Uh, that 45, 46, uh, number.

All right, last one, it's fitting we do this.

The Washington Wizards, who have been, you know, bottom feeders for the last few years, uh, 17 wins last season, Rachel Nichols, they are projected to have 35.5. That's the over-under for Washington.

So they're projected to have more wins as I go up here than Milwaukee, than Chicago.

Uh, they're projected to be a vastly improved team.

Do you see the Wizards doubling their win total from last year?

This is when I have to give my usual caveat.

I am biased.

I grew up in DC, fan of this team.

I now do some work for the organization, so I am biased.

There's no question about it.

However, in my biased state , I'm picking the over, Chris.

I, I really think people are underestimating this team.

They have so much young talent.

They just beat the Knicks in the preseason, and again, I know it's preseason.

I know it doesn't count for much, but if you look at the way they have played, fine, fine.

If you look at the way they have played when they've been out on the floor , if you look at the way they have looked in practice.

I think the chemistry is really good here.

I think that Anthony Davis was very unhappy for months and months, but I don't think he's as unhappy now.

And I have not had this in-depth conversation with him, so, take it for what it is, just my opinion.

He looks like he's having a lot of fun out there.

And he looks like he likes these guys, especially AJ and they've had some great connections on the court.

So, Yes, I'm biased.

Yes, I'm also taking the over.

I don't think Washington is going to win the title this year, but I do think they're going to surprise some people.

You have to remember that 17 games last year was suppressed for a reason.

It worked.

They got AJ and now they get to sort of play at a full run.

Yeah, what was it?

Did Bubs Carrington say that?

Was that his line there?

And he kind of said the quiet part out loud.

I'm gonna take you over as well.

I think they can get into the high 30s.

I think they can get in the high 30s.

Like Trae Young is, I watched him in the preseason whipping the ball around.

Like I, I think he.

He might compete for the assist title this year.

And if AD stays healthy, him and Sar next to each other is a good combination.

I guess it comes down to like how do you blend all this rising young talent with the veteran stars that are Anthony Davis and Trae Young.

Like, does that come together quickly?

Is Brian Keefe built to coach this type of team after coaching kind of a losing situation?

For the last couple of years, but they have the talent to be 36, 37, flirt with 500, flirt with the play spot, with the playoff spot via the play.

They've got that kind of talent, Rachel.

So I'm with you.

I am on board the Wizards being a better than expected team this year.

All right, uh, that's it for the Eastern Conference.

My work is done here.

Your work is done.

We will do the Western Conference though, a much tougher conference thing to project.

We'll do that next week.