Why 2021 Draft Could Convince Warriors to Pass on Yaxel Lendeborg with 11th Pick

The Golden State Warriors will have to decide how much they value immediate impact vs. a high ceiling when they make their 2026 first-round pick selection.

When it comes to immediate impact, 23-year-old Yaxel Lendeborg is likely near the top of Golden State's board.

His combination of size (6'8.75", 241 lbs), shooting, passing and defense suggest he'll be playable from day one.

But the 2021 draft could serve as a cautionary tale for the Warriors.

You may be thinking, "How could 2021 draft picks Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody have anything to do with Lendeborg?" And you'd be right.

This cautionary tale is about who the Indiana Pacers chose one pick before the Warriors took Moody.

The Chris Duarte Warning

Just like many of you, I was playing GM from my couch when the Warriors had two first-round picks in the 2021 draft.

I remember thinking Kuminga was probably the right pick at No. 7. I also remember thinking Trey Murphy III made more sense than Moody at No. 14.

But the one thing I remember most was my love for Chris Duarte.

Duarte played junior college for his first two seasons before transferring to Oregon. As a junior, he averaged 17.1 points on average efficiency.

His draft stock took off as a senior.

Duarte averaged 20.1 points on 53.2 percent from the field and 42.4 percent from three, outrageous efficiency for a guard. He wasn't a particularly good passer or rebounder, but he did average 1.9 steals and 0.8 blocks, which had me thinking he was more athletic than given credit for.

Duarte was 23 years old during his final season of college. The same age concerns that are being said about Lendeborg were being used on Duarte, but I didn't care.

If anything, I liked that he was older. The Warriors needed an immediate contributor, and Duarte's shooting was sure to translate, and his defense had a chance to be serviceable as well.

With the 13th pick, the Pacers grabbed Duarte right before the Warriors could. I'm just about certain the Warriors didn't want him anyway. They were clearly looking for higher-upside players at the time, which arguably didn't make sense considering Stephen Curry was coming off winning the scoring title and still in his prime.

After taking Kuminga and Moody to join 2020 No. 2 overall pick James Wiseman, the Warriors were officially in their two-timelines era.

Meanwhile, the Pacers were getting an "immediate impact" guy in Duarte, and sure enough, Duarte got on the court immediately.

In his rookie season as a 24-year-old, he averaged 13.1 points on 36.9 percent three-point shooting. That's not bad, but his passing, rebounding, defense and athleticism were all lacking. He wasn't making much of an impact beside scoring at about average efficiency.

As an older prospect, it wasn't a surprise that Duarte didn't improve from there. He was a finished product coming into the league.

He struggled in his second season, and before he could even try for a bounce-back third season in Indiana, the Pacers traded him to the Kings for two second-round picks. Now Duarte is out of the NBA.

Similarities and Differences Between Duarte and Lendeborg

The biggest difference between Lendeborg and Duarte is their size. Duarte was 6'5" and 190 pounds. He didn't have the body to be a versatile defender.

Lendeborg, with his 7'3.25" wingspan, has major defensive versatility potential.

Another difference is that Lendeborg didn't start playing organized basketball until he was 15. In theory, he's developing more than a typical 23-year-old is.

But they have some similarities aside from being late bloomers.

Both have some athletic limitations by NBA standards. Lendeborg's vertical jump results were near the bottom of the class, which is not stunning considering how tall and built he is. But it should be noted AJ Dybantsa is a quarter of an inch shorter than Lendeborg but his max vertical was 10.5 inches higher.

Both have average on-ball creation skills for their positions. To be clear, Duarte had more advanced skills in this category, but that's to be expected for a shooting guard over a power forward.

It turned out that Duarte didn't have one high-end NBA skill, and I worry that could be the same for Lendeborg. The Michigan star is good at a lot of things, and I'm most excited about how defense translates. But it's not clear that he'll be great on that end.

Lendeborg Outlook

I'm pretty high on Lendeborg despite the concerns stated above. He seems much less likely to bust due to his size and well-rounded skill set.

But I do think his ceiling is lower than a lot of the players the Warriors could consider taking with the 11th pick.

So this all comes back to the question raised in the first sentence of this article: Do the Warriors value Lendeborg's immediate impact and high floor over someone else's lower immediate impact level and higher ceiling?

It's difficult to answer.

But I wonder if they are looking back at the 2021 draft to guide this decision. The "immediate impact" guy (Duarte) ended up being way worse than the much younger, higher-ceiling guy (Moody) they took one pick later.

If so, the Warriors could be targeting 19-year-old Karim Lopez, 20-year-old Labaron Philon Jr. or 20-year-old Brayden Burries with this pick.

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