The Indianapolis Colts got off to a slow start this season, but they could take the lead in the AFC South with a road win against the Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football. Indianapolis is a 2.5-point road favorite and will try to beat Houston for the fourth consecutive time straight-up and against the spread.
After starting the season 0-2, the Colts have won three in a row after beating the Baltimore Ravens 20-13 last week as 2.5-point home favorites at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. They are 4-1 ATS this season, with the lone ATS loss coming against the Philadelphia Eagles 30-27 on Monday Night Football in Week 2.
Indianapolis was a three-point home favorite against the Eagles, and this matchup with the Texans will mark the third time in six games that the team will be favored by three points or less. Colts QB Andrew Luck continues to lead the NFL in passingyards (1,617) and touchdowns (14), and he remains one of the early front runners for the league’s MVP award.
Houston, coming off a 20-17 overtime loss to the Dallas Cowboys last week, still managed to cover the spread for the fourth time in five games. The NFL odds had the Texans as five-point road underdogs against the Cowboys, who won despite surrendering 157 yards and two touchdowns to RB Arian Foster.
With QB Ryan Fitzpatrick continuing to struggle through the air, it would be smart for Houston to continue to feed the ball to Foster. Fitzpatrick had just 154 passing yards with no touchdowns and one interception against Dallas, and he has thrown more than one touchdown pass only once this season -- against the Oakland Raiders in a 30-14 win Week 2 with the Texans closing as three-point road favorites. In fact, this will likely be the fifth time in six games this year that Houston is a favorite or underdog of three points or fewer. Unlike their opponent, they began this season 2-0 before dropping two of their past three.
There are a couple total trends in this Indianapolis vs. Houston matchup that favor a high-scoring game. The OVER is 3-0 in the last three games for the Colts when they are road favorites and 12-3 in the past 15 for the Texans when they are home underdogs.