- The distribution of compensatory picks is complete: The first two days of the draft will see 107 prospects come off the board. Here's our latest forecast of who will land where.
This is approximately our 107th mock of the draft season, so it's only appropriate that we swing back into the three-round format and cover picks 1 through 107. In the time since we last forecasted the first two days, the league handed out 32 compensatory picks, 11 of which were tacked onto the end of Round 3 (starting at pick No. 97) to push the mock into triple digits for the first time all year.
As was the case a couple weeks ago, we have no quarterbacks in the top 10 this time. It's still not too difficult to see two or three QBs wind up there, though.
Let's get into it.
If multiple quarterbacks come off the board in the top 15, as was the case with this mock, then the 49ers (or Bears or Jets) might be compelled to move back into Round 1 to address the position. Without any trades, the 49ers are able to stay put and add Kizer to Jamal Adams, giving them a centerpiece on each side of the ball.
As for Mixon, be prepared for him to be gone on Day 2 ... and maybe on Day 1. He has obvious NFL-level talent, enough to put him in the class of Fournette and Cook, and we’ve now heard several GMs speak positively about him. In making the move at 35, the Jaguars finally answer their RB conundrum—neither T.J. Yeldon nor Chris Ivory reached 4.0 yards per carry last year.
Baker belongs in the first round. The sheer number of defenders that deserve to come off the board before Friday, as well as Baker’s size, could drop him into Round 2. Good news for the Chargers that it happens, because he’s better than any safety they have. Davis just had a terrific Pro Day, and if he can stay healthy he can offer just as much as a guy like Zach Cunningham.
The long-awaited cornerback run begins here, with the Eagles and Bills joining the fun. So, too, does a continuation of the edge-rusher run, with outside linebackers Williams and Watt following DEs Willis and Lawson (picks 40 and 41). It is anyone’s guess which of those four will make the best pro.
What if the Broncos could solve their TE production issue and their need for a slot receiver all in one? Engram isn’t the home-run hitter that offense covets, but he would be a valuable chip. The player with the brightest future among this group may be Elflein. He could compete for a starting guard job out of the gate in Minnesota, then eventually move over to replace 34-year-old Joe Berger.
Maybe some team sneaks in another skill-position prospect at some point. It should be evident, though, how much defensive value there could be in Round 2 this year. Tabor and Williams are potential starters as rookies—Tabor’s brutal 40 times at the combine and his Pro Day could drive him into Round 2, but he never had the look of a speedster CB. Rivers and Basham can be productive pass rushers in Year One, if nothing else.
Moreau and Washington’s Sidney Jones (coming soon) are going to be of interest to just about every team if they slip into Day 2. They both were headed for Round 1 before suffering Pro Day injuries. Moreau (torn pectoral) faces a shorter, more predictable timeline than does Jones (torn Achilles).
After handing the Cowboys Cam Robinson in Round 1, it may be too much to double up on offense at pick 60 when Dallas has pressing defensive needs. But this is both a value pick—Samuel has top-50 talent—and one that would further open up the field for the run game. A less flashy, arguably more important pick in the 58-62 range: Feeney. He can start as a rookie, and the Packers just lost T.J. Lang.
If Ogunjobi could hand-pick his destination, Atlanta would have to be at least top five. The defending NFC champs could use him to take snaps off Dontari Poe’s plate, while also mixing him into the lineup on passing downs. And as promised, here is Jones. The extended recovery period he is facing may send him spiraling into Round 3 ... or Day 3. However, the reward for giving him a shot could be a legit No. 1 cornerback, and the Panthers have enough young CBs on their roster to afford a little patience.
There has been Round 1 buzz around Kamara of late. More realistic (especially with Fournette, Cook and Mixon in the first-round mix) is that he hears his name called on Day 2, and the Browns have room for a player with Kamara’s explosiveness to join Duke Johnson and Isaiah Crowell.
Two more QBs off the board in the top half of Round 3, ending the post-Kizer drought. The Chargers have done zero planning for their lives beyond Philip Rivers, and Peterman has starter-quality traits if given time to develop. Washington almost has to draft a quarterback with Kirk Cousins likely headed elsewhere for 2018. Kaaya is a bit robotic and needs to improve under pressure, but his game is similar to that of Cousins.
The Patriots’ first pick of the 2017 draft is a skilled, penetrating defensive tackle. Bill Belichick loves pieces he can move around up front, and Johnson could help Belichick overcome Malcom Brown’s inconsistencies.
A few of the highlights from the final bunch of picks in this mock:
• The Texans have to address their offensive line during this draft. Garcia is a developing prospect who needs a healthy dose of NFL coaching, but his length and athleticism are enough to sell him. He moves well enough to be a fit for Houston’s scheme, on either side of the line.
• Maye would allow Pete Carroll to sleep a lot more easily at night. Obviously, Seattle’s defense is at its best when Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas are on the field together, but Maye could be a fallback option for either player. The Florida product is that versatile.
• Dallas begins handling its defensive issues at No. 92, with the underrated Wilson. There will be a handful of teams (and the Cowboys were among them in this mock) that lean offense in Rounds 1 and 2 because of this class’s depth on defense. There is less starter-caliber DE talent by this point, which limits the Cowboys’ options, but the abundance of skill in the secondary remains.
• Carolina had a shot at Fournette (and all the other RBs) at No. 8 but opted to pass, in this mock. Williams doesn’t bring the same upside, but he would be a nice fit behind Jonathan Stewart in that offense. He’s a hard runner with good size.
• A couple more injured players off the board: Jake Butt and Eddie Jackson. The former maintains he is well ahead of schedule in recovery from his ACL injury; the Packers’ recent addition of Martellus Bennett means they could ease Butt back, and he would be a terrific option for Aaron Rodgers once he is healthy. Jackson (broken leg) did not work out at the combine, but he was supposed to go through the paces during Alabama’s Pro Day—taking place about the same time as this mock hits the presses. At the very least, a healthy Jackson is a special teams contributor. At best, he’s a turnover-forcing machine from the free safety spot.