- Week 4 does not feature any extremely high over/unders, which helps make high-volume running backs like Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette the top DFS values.
There are no games projected to go over 50 total points and no top-tier passing games in outstanding matchups, so paying up for a particular passing offense won’t be a popular strategy this week. On that note, many of the best values available, according to 4for4 projections, are high-priced, high-volume running backs. Because of this, those playing large-field tournaments might consider targeting high-priced receivers on under-owned offenses for one of the more unique lineup strategies this week. The Vikings, Falcons, and Patriots project to be the highest-owned offenses of Week 4
Remember that the early London game isn’t on either main slate, and DraftKings has removed the Sunday night game from its main slate, too.
The following will highlight the most notable values from the 4for4 Lineup Generator for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Editor’s note: “Value” doesn’t necessarily mean inexpensive, but rather the best bang for your DFS dollar. These players, regardless of price tag, project to give you the most production per dollar this week.
Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500) vs. Rams
The Cowboys are favored by nearly a touchdown at home against a Rams team that ranks 30th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, when adjusted for strength of schedule. Despite facing a handful of underwhelming rushing offenses in the Colts, Redskins, and 49ers, only one team has allowed more rushing yards than L.A. Averaging more than 24 touches per game, only one player has accounted for a higher percentage of team touches than Ezekiel Elliott. While Zeke’s usage gives him one of the safest floors of the week, he also has tournament-winning upside this week. Only three teams are projected to score more points than Dallas in Week 4, and teams have ran 63% of the time in the red zone against the Rams, the second-highest rate in the league.
Rishard Matthews ($6,000) at Texans
With Corey Davis out of the lineup last week because of a balky hamstring, Rishard Matthews saw 10 targets, accounting for one-third of Marcus Mariota’s pass attempts. Over the first three weeks of the season, Matthews has hogged 36% of Tennessee's red zone targets. Davis has already been ruled out for Week 4, and tight end Delanie Walker is now dealing with a hamstring injury of his own, so Matthews could be in line to see even more looks. On the other side of the ball, Houston is down starting cornerback Kevin Johnson, and 4for4 ranks the Texans defense outside the top 20 against wide receivers. The Texans have allowed a touchdown on 6.6% of passing attempts, the second-highest rate in the league.
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Leonard Fournette ($6,700) at Jets
No team has run the ball more often this year than the Jaguars, and they have a favorable matchup to feed Fournette this week. Jacksonville is a favorite and going up against a Jets defense that 4for4 ranks dead last against running backs. Fournette is averaging more than 21 touches per game, and no running back is projected to see more touches in Week 4. Even with all of these factors working in his favor, there are still seven running backs priced higher than Fournette on the main slate, making him the top-projected value at any position.
Tyrod Taylor ($5,300) at Falcons
There’s a plethora of value at the quarterback position this week, and Tyrod Taylor tops the list. In three games this season, teams have averaged 45 pass attempts against the Falcons, and no team facing Atlanta has thrown it fewer than 40 times. Although the Bills don’t typically ask Taylor to throw that much, when he does he has been one of the most efficient passers in the league—Taylor ranks in the top 10 at his position in fantasy points per attempt. Taylor already has over 100 rushing yards this year, giving him one of the safest floors at his position, and he has a raised ceiling against a Falcons defense that has faced a 76% passing rate inside the red zone. According to 4for4’s Leverage Scores, only three quarterback have better odds than Taylor of hitting cash game value, and none of the others is priced below $6,200.