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  • Detroit, Jacksonville and Seattle rank among some of this week's best plays against the spread.
By Scott Gramling
November 10, 2018

Here are our picks for Week 10's Sunday afternoon action in the NFL.

Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs (-16.5)

1:00 p.m. ET

• Arizona is 1-7 against the spread since the start of 2016 versus opponents that are averaging at least 375 yards per game.

• Under the total is 30-11 in games Kansas City has played as a home favorite under head coach Andy Reid.

• The Chiefs have allowed an average of fewer than 16 points over their past three home games.

Side: Chiefs (-16.5)

Confidence Level: Low (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)

Total: Under 49.5

Confidence Level: Moderate


Atlanta Falcons (-6) at Cleveland Browns

1:00 p.m.

• Cleveland is 2-14 ATS since the start of 2016 vs. teams that allow an average of at least 235 passing yards per game.

• Over the total is 16-6 when Atlanta is coming off a game in which the team scored 30 or more points under coach Dan Quinn.

• Cleveland has lost 13 consecutive November games, both straight up and against the spread.

Side: Falcons (-6)

Confidence Level: Moderate

Total: Over 50.5

Confidence Level: Low


Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-7)

1:00 p.m.

• The Jets are 8-1 against the spread at home since the start of 2016 when coming off back-to-back straight-up losses.

• Over the total is 5-1 when Buffalo is coming off back-to-back games of allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards since 2016.

• Having averaged 11.0 points over their past three games, the Jets might not be any worse off with journeyman quarterback Josh McCown starting in place of rookie Sam Darnold.

Side: Jets (-7)

Confidence Level: Low

Total: Over 36.5

Confidence Level: Very High


Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-6.5)

1:00 p.m.

• Detroit is 9-5-2 against the spread in games played against Chicago since the start of the 2010 season.

• Under the total is 4-1 in games Detroit has played on the road against Chicago since the start of the 2013 season.

• The Bears appear to be overvalued here following their blowout win over the hapless Bills this past Sunday.

Side: Lions (+6.5)

Confidence Level: Extremely High

Total: Under 44

Confidence Level: High


Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

1:00 p.m. ET

• Jacksonville is 6-0 against the spread in games played against Indianapolis since the start of the 2015 season.

• Under the total is 7-0 in games Jacksonville has played on the road against Indianapolis since the start of 2011.

• The Jaguars are 7-1 against the spread when coming off a bye week since the start of the 2010 season.

Side: Jaguars (+3)

Confidence Level: Very High

Total: Under 46.5

Confidence Level: Very High


New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

1:00 p.m.

• Cincinnati is 5-2 against the spread since the start of 2016 when coming off a game in which the team scored 30 or more points.

• Under the total is 13-2 in games Cincinnati has played with Marvin Lewis as head coach following a game in which they scored 30 or more points.

• If you take out games the Bengals have played against rival Pittsburgh, Cincinnati is 8-0 straight up as a home underdog over the past six calendar years.

Side: Bengals (+5.5)

Confidence Level: Moderate

Total: Under 54

Confidence Level: Low


New England Patriots (-6.5) at Tennessee Titans

1:00 p.m.

• New England is 5-0 against the spread when facing Tennessee since the start of the 2006 season.

• Under the total is 12-6 in games New England has played as a road favorite since the start of the 2016 season.

• Teams playing on a Sunday after having been on the road the previous Monday night are 9-16 against the spread since the start of last season.

Side: Patriots (-6.5)

Confidence Level: Low

Total: Under 47

Confidence Level: Moderate


Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

1:00 p.m.

• Tampa Bay is 4-12 against the spread as a home favorite of fewer than six points since the start of the 2014 season, and the Bucs are 2-10-1 ATS since the start of 2016 when coming off a road loss.

• Ove the total is 11-3 in games Washington has played under head coach Jay Gruden against opponents that are gaining an average of at least 375 yards per game.

• Tampa Bay has been reeling since a pair of surprising wins at New Orleans and at home against Philadelphia to start the season, going 1-5 against the spread with the lone ATS victory being a 3-point loss as a 3½-point underdog at Cincinnati two weeks ago.

Side: Washington (+3)

Confidence Level: High

Total: Over 51

Confidence Level: Moderate


Los Angeles Chargers (-10) at Oakland Raiders

4:05 p.m.

• Oakland is 1-10 against the spread since the start of 2017 vs. teams that complete at least 61% of their pass attempts.

• Under the total is 7-3 in games Oakland has played against the Chargers since the start of the 2013 season.

• The Chargers are 5-2 against the spread in games played in Oakland since the start of the 2011 season.

Side: Chargers (-10)

Confidence Level: High

Total: Under 50

Confidence Level: Very High


Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-9.5)

4:25 p.m.

• Miami is 0-6 against the spread on the road since the start of 2017 vs. teams allowing an average of at least 350 yards per game.

• Under the total is 7-3 in games Miami has played as a road underdog of more than 6 points since the start of the 2015 season.

• Miami’s defense is allowing an average of more than 20 points in the second half of road games this season.

Side: Green Bay (-9.5)

Confidence Level: Low

Total: Under 47.5

Confidence Level: Low


Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-9.5)

4:25 p.m.

• Seattle is 22-11 against the spread under coach Pete Carroll when playing a team to which it lost earlier in the same season.

• Under the total is 10-4 in games the Rams have played against Seattle since the start of the 2011 season.

• The Rams have covered the spread only once over their past six games, going 1-4-1 during that stretch.

Side: Seattle (+9.5)

Confidence Level: High

Total: Under 50

Confidence Level: Moderate

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HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
OUT
HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
IN
Eagle (-2)
Birdie (-1)
Bogey (+1)
Double Bogey (+2)