Week 11 DFS Values and Picks: David Johnson is Back
With six teams on a bye, there are just 10 teams playing on the main DFS slate. Two of the most popular teams—the Rams and the Chiefs—play on Monday night, which should flatten out ownership across the slate. As it currently stands, the median team ownership projections at 4for4 are some of the lowest that we’ve seen all year.
The following will highlight the most notable values from the 4for4 Lineup Generator for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Editor’s note: “Value” doesn’t necessarily mean inexpensive, but rather the best bang for your DFS buck. These players, regardless of price tag, project to give you the most production per dollar this week.
FanDuel
David Johnson ($7,900) vs. Raiders
There are a handful of top-end, high-volume backs dominating this week’s values at 4for4, but Johnson is the only one in that group priced below $8,000. Since Byron Leftwich took over play-calling duties, this offense has experienced a bit of a revival. Johnson is coming off of consecutive 20-touch games, including a season-high 28 touches in Week 10 that saw him targeted nine times. In Week 11, Arizona is favored by 5.5 points at home against an Oakland defense that is facing nearly 29 running back touches per game and has allowed the fourth-most total yards per game to the position. What makes Johnson especially intriguing this week is his touchdown equity—the Cardinals’ 23-point implied total is more than a touchdown higher than their point-per-game average, and Johnson accounts for 66% of the team’s opportunities (rushes plus targets) inside the 10-yard line.
BELLER: Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings: How do the Rams Adjust Without Cooper Kupp?
Keenan Allen ($7,600) vs. Broncos
Keenan Allen has been used at a relatively high rate this season, but a look at recent trends shows elite usage. Over the last month, Allen has accounted for 31.2% of the Chargers’ targets, the fourth-highest target share in the league over that span. That uptick in usage has coincided with a more pass-heavy game plan for the team. After passing on just half of their plays in neutral game script over the first five weeks of the season, the Chargers have thrown nearly 62% of the time in one-score games since Week 6. That marks the biggest jump in passing volume in the league. Allen’s salary hasn’t caught up to either of these factors, allowing DFS owners to get WR1 volume for a WR2 price tag.
BELLER: Fantasy Football Week 11 Start ’Em, Sit ’Em: Start Lamar Miller With Confidence
DraftKings
Dak Prescott ($5,200) at Falcons
Prescott has been on a quiet tear of late, scoring at least 20 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and averaging 22.6 points since Week 6. That’s better than Cam Newton, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers during that span. The addition of Amari Cooper has provided Prescott with a reliable number one receiver, helping him reach 30-plus attempts in each of the last three games. This week, Dallas travels to Atlanta to face a Falcons offense that 4for4 ranks 31st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, when adjusted for strength of schedule. When it comes to quarterback upside, no defense has been a better target—the Falcons have allowed the most 300-yard games and have given up at least three touchdowns through the air seven times. No other defense has surrendered more than four such quarterback performances. In a contest with a projected point total of 48.5 and a spread of just three, 4for4 projects Prescott as a top-three value at his position this week.
PAULSEN: Week 11 Fantasy Football Sneaky Starts
Dion Lewis ($4,800) at Colts
With high-priced running backs dominating value this week, 4for4 projects Dion Lewis as the best value priced at less than $7,000, regardless of position. Lewis disappointed as the chalk last week, but that could help keep his ownership somewhat in check in a spot where he should be one of the most popular plays on the slate. It’s not uncommon for teams to make philosophical shifts during their bye weeks, and that’s seemingly what happened in Tennessee. Lewis touched the ball at least 22 times in both of the Titans’ two games since their week off, accounting for at least 40% of their total touches in those games. Prior to the bye, Lewis hadn’t seen a 40% touch share since Week 1. Lewis’ increased usage has corresponded with Tennessee’s two highest-scoring games of the season. Now, they face a Colts defense that not only ranks 27th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs, but ranks in the bottom 10 against every skill position.
