Fantasy Football Buy, Sell, or Hold: Sony Michel Lurking as a Buy-Low Candidate
The 2018 fantasy football regular season is nearing the end, but trade markets in some leagues are still open for business. If making deals is still possible in your league, the time is now. A trade could make all the difference in the fantasy postseason.
Looking at multiple factors for a trade target will serve you best, including schedule, potential floor and ceiling, and health of surrounding teammates. You’ll see references to 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric (aFPA) in this column, which we rely on heavily to determine weekly matchup strength.
Buy
Sony Michel, RB, Patriots
The rookie rusher has been banged up and had a rough outing in Week 10 against the Titans, producing just 31 yards on 11 carries. With a bye week to rest and heal, plus a decent schedule moving forward, Michel is an attractive buy-low candidate. New England has games with the Jets, Dolphins and Bills in coming weeks, teams that are all ranked 24th or worse in rushing aFPA. With Michel’s recent struggles and the possibility of Rex Burkhead coming back, there’s a chance you can score a low-end RB1 at a discounted price.
Jack Doyle, TE, Colts
Andrew Luck has at three touchdowns in all of his last seven games, making him one of this season’s most bankable quarterbacks. Doyle has seen more targets than Eric Ebron and has been on the field for 85% of the Colts’ snaps, compared with Ebron’s 39%, over the last two weeks. Only one of Doyle’s next four matchups features a team that ranks better than 25th in tight end aFPA.
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Marques Valdes-Scantling, WR, Packers
Seeing a player do nothing during an island game can certainly affect their trade value the following week. Valdes-Scantling caught just one of three targets for eight yards on Thursday night in Week 11, but sunny skies are just ahead. With Randall Cobb banged up and Jimmy Graham suffering with a broken thumb, the rookie is the clear No. 2 pass-catcher for Green Bay. He was on the field for 98% of the snaps last week, more than even Davante Adams.
Sell
Adrian Peterson, RB, Redskins
Peterson is back in the sell portion of this column with Washington’s season taking a turn for the worse. Not only did he lose his starting quarterback to a gruesome leg injury, but he’s as dependent on postive game script as any back in the league, and his schedule is about to get a whole lot tougher. Four of Washington’s next five games are on the road, with matchups against the Jaguars and Titans, defenses ranked second and third, respectively, in running back aFPA.
Corey Davis, WR, Titans
Davis is the fantasy points leader on the Titans offense, with 117.9 in PPR formats on the season. Week 11 was a mess for the team as a whole, but he did have seven receptions for 125 yards and a score against the Colts the previous week. With Marcus Mariota banged up again, it’s unclear what will become of this offense. To pile on even more, Tennessee faces Jacksonville and the Giants in Weeks 14 and 15, teams that both sit in the top 10 in wide receiver aFPA.
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Jordan Reed, TE, Redskins
Despite the change at quarterback in Week 11, Reed had his best performance of the season, grabbing seven of 11 targets for 71 yards and a touchdown. Sure, the tight end position is a tough one this season and giving up a regular starter is not ideal, but neither is Reed’s future outlook. After this week’s Thanksgiving tilt against Dallas, Reed faces four teams ranked 12th or better in tight end aFPA.
