There are only two teams on bye this week, but they’re big ones in the Chiefs and Rams. Fantasy owners will need to replace Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff and Travis Kelce, and the best way to find spot starters at those positions is often on the stream.
For streaming purposes, 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) is a metric we rely on heavily to determine weekly matchup strength. As the season progresses and more data is available, aFPA becomes more and more reliable, using rolling 10-week data. Targets and efficiency metrics are also considered when choosing weekly streamers.
Eli Manning, Giants at Eagles
Manning has been efficient in recent weeks, throwing five touchdowns and no picks in his last two contests. The Giants leaned even more than usual on Saquon Barkley in their Week 11 win over the Buccaneers, but Manning completed 17 of 18 attempts for 231 yards and a season-high 12.83 yards per attempt. New York heads to Philadelphia in Week 12 to battle a beat-up Eagles secondary, one that allowed Drew Brees to throw for 363 yards and four just last week. If you’re missing Mahomes or Goff, Manning could be a player to give thanks for in Week 12.
Baker Mayfield, Browns at Bengals
Fresh off a Week 11 bye, Mayfield gets the Bengals on Sunday, a defense that ranks 25th against opposing quarterbacks in aFPA. He was extremely accurate in his last outing in Week 10, completing 1 of 20 attempts for 216 yards and three touchdowns, connecting with nine different receivers. The Bengals, meanwhile, are on track to break the yards allowed record by Week 16.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens vs. Raiders
It appears Jackson will get the nod again in Week 12, in place of the injured Joe Flacco. In his first NFL start, Jackson completed 13 of 19 passes for 150, while adding 117 yards on 27 carries. His passing left a bit to be desired, as most throws were underneath and not too precise, but his talent is undeniable. Fortunately, the rookie gets a matchup with a Raiders defense ranked 23rd in quarterback aFPA to help build his confidence this week. The expected rushing production provides him wit a safe floor, as well.
Chris Herndon, Jets vs. Patriots
After three straight games with a touchdown in Weeks 6 through 8, Herndon posted two mediocre performances, with a combined catches balls for 98 yards before the Jets bye in Week 11. The Jets’ quarterback situation remains up in the air, but the matchup is too juicy to ignore, no matter who gets the start. New York stays home to face New England, a defense ranked second-to-last in tight end aFPA.
Nick Vannett and Ed Dickson, Seahawks at Panthers
Vannett out-snapped Dickson by a 42-30 count in Week 11, but it was Dickson who hauled in his one target for a score. Vannett had a 17-yard catch and run that ended just a yard short of the end zone, but it was Chris Carson who punched in the score. Both, however, are viable tight ends on the stream, especially this week against Carolina, which is ranked last in the league in tight end aFPA.
Jonnu Smith, Titans at Texans
Smith caught six of eight targets for 44 yards against the Colts in Week 11. Although his scoring streak ended at two games, he set as new career high in receptions, and was just one yard away from tying his career-best mark. There is some concern related to Marcus Mariota’s elbow injury, but Smith is a worthy streamer no matter if it’s Mariota or Blaine Gabbert under center. Houston sits at 23rd in tight end aFPA. In their last two games, they allowed Jeff Heuerman to post 24.3 PPR points and Jordan Reed to burn them for 20.1. When these teams first met in Week 2, Tennessee tight ends combined for 20.6 PPR points.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Redskins
Alex Smith is out for the season after breaking both bones in his lower left leg in Week 11, handing the Washington offense over to Colt McCoy. The Cowboys defense has been a bit inconsistent from a fantasy perspective this season, but on the whole it has been effective, and this could be a top-tier matchup at home on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys are tied for ninth in sacks with 28 and has forced a have forced 10 turnovers.
Buffalo Bills vs. Jaguars
In Weeks 1-10 before their bye, the Bills defense posted an impressive 25 sacks and 15 takeaways. The Jaguars are 29th in the league in defensive aFPA, yielding 10.7 fantasy points to team defenses weekly. Take advantage of the Bills’ low ownership coming off a bye and grab them off the waiver wire for Week 12 and beyond, as their next three opponents are all 21st or worse in aFPA to opposing defenses.
Cleveland Browns at Bengals
For such a young unit, the Browns have been effective on defense this season, ranking 15th in fantasy points through 11 weeks. They get the struggling Bengals on Sunday, an offense that has scored a combined 35 points in their last two contests, both of which were without A.J. Green. If Green is out again this week, it’s hard to see the Bengals getting their offense going in a way that would make the Browns a bad fantasy play.