Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles(-6.5)
Mon. 12/3, 8:15 p.m. ET
Three things you need to know before betting on Washington-Philadelphia:
1. Although Washington has lost three of its last four games, the team had gone 5-1 against the spread over a six-game stretch prior to an eight-point defeat as a seven-point underdog in which Redskins kicker Dustin Hopkins missed his first extra point of 2018 on Thanksgiving in Dallas. Philadelphia came back to beat the Giants 25-22 as a five-point home favorite this past Sunday, which saw the team’s ATS record fall to 1-4 over its past five games and 2-8 over its past 10. The Redskins have been the better team in this series recently, going 6-2 against the spread in the past eight meetings, with five outright wins in the past seven matchups. Washington is 8-3 against the spread in its last 11 visits to Philadelphia, where the Eagles have failed to cover five straight home games in which they have been favored by at least four points.
2. Washington's minus-three turnover ratio in its Thanksgiving loss to Dallas was a bit of an aberration, as the Redskins have finished a game with a turnover margin of minus-two or worse only six other times in the past three seasons. They’ve made a habit of bouncing back in those instances, going 5-1 against the spread and (4-1-1 straight-up) after those six contests. Washington quarterback Colt McCoy threw two of his three interceptions on Thanksgiving while trying to rally his team back from a double-digit deficit in the second half, resulting in just the sixth multi-interception game of McCoy's 38-game career and first three-pick game since 2011 when he was with Cleveland. The Eagles have failed to force more than two turnovers in a game since the second week of the season, when they forced a pair in a 27-21 loss at Tampa Bay against a Buccaneers team that enters Week 13 having turned the ball over 29 times in 2018, by far the most in the NFL. (The Jets ranked second with 23 turnovers.) Only San Francisco has forced fewer turnovers this season than the eight Philadelphia has forced.
3. The Washington gameplan on Monday will likely be to run the football with an offense that averages 118 rushing yards this season against a Philadelphia run defense that, over its past three games, has allowed 156.7 rushing yards per game on an average of 5.7 yards per carry. The weakness of the Washington defense is arguably its secondary, as the Redskins rank 23rd in the NFL in passing yards allowed (260.9 per game), 23rd in yards per pass attempt allowed (7.8) and 24th in opponents’ completion percentage (67.3). The Eagles, however, have been unable to take advantage of similar teams in recent meetings, going 1-8 against the spread since the start of the 2016 season when facing an opponent that’s allowing an average of at least seven yards per pass attempt. Philadelphia is 0-6 against the spread this season when facing a defense that allows a completion percentage of at least 64%, having been outscored by an average of 9.0 points per game in those half-dozen contests. And since Doug Pederson took over as the team’s head coach prior to the 2016 season, the Eagles are 0-11 against the spread when facing a team with a defense that allows an average of at least six yards per play.
Pick: Washington +6.5
Confidence Level: Moderate (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)