Week 14 DFS Values and Picks: Keenan Allen is Still a Bargain
Week 14 brings us three teams projected by Vegas for at least 30 points, and another four on the main slate projected for 27 or more. Given their potential high-scoring nature this week, 4for4 projects the Steelers to be the highest-owned offense, with the Saints and Buccaneers not far behind.
The following will highlight the most notable values from the 4for4 Lineup Generator for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Editor’s note: “Value” doesn’t necessarily mean inexpensive, but rather the best bang for your DFS buck. These players, regardless of price tag, project to give you the most production per dollar this week.
FanDuel
Jaylen Samuels ($4,600) at Raiders
With a handful of cheap running backs stepping in for injured starters this week, the slate is as wide open as any in the last month, but Samuels stands out. Pittsburgh is favored by 10 against an Oakland defense that sees an average of 28.9 running back touches per game—that’s the fifth-most in the league. There is some concern that Samuels will split work with Stevan Ridley, but those worries are mitigated by a couple factors, one of those being the aforementioned game script—teams get ahead and give their running backs so many touches, that both backs could hit value this week. Additionally, even if the Steelers do opt for a timeshare, Samuels is the more adept pass-catcher of the two, which gives him a stronger foundation for touches.
BELLER: Week 14 Start ’Em, Sit ’Em
Keenan Allen ($7,900) vs. Bengals
Since the Chargers Week 8 bye, no player has seen more targets than Keenan Allen, but his price still hasn’t quite caught up to his volume—seven receivers on this week’s main slight are more expensive. In that span, just seven players—five quarterbacks and two running backs—have scored more FanDuel points. Rostering Allen ties your lineup to the only quarterback that has thrown multiple touchdowns in every game this season, and Philip Rivers is now facing a defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per pass attempt over the last six weeks. The Chargers have the third highest implied point total (30.75) on the board, according to the betting lines, giving Allen a ton of scoring equity.
DraftKings
Jeff Wilson ($3,800) vs. Broncos
As a running back inheriting a feature role priced at less than $4,000, Wilson isn’t only 4for4’s top value at running back but the number one value across all positions. In relief of Matt Breida last week, Wilson touched the ball 23 times—including eight catches on nine targets—accounting for 43% of San Francisco’s total touches. On an underdog against a good defense, this isn’t an ideal matchup, but Wilson’s workload compared with his price tag more than makes up for that. Even if Wilson puts up mediocre numbers, his floor plus the upside of any stud that his salary allows you to roster is likely a better combination than any two middling players that you might start otherwise.
PAULSEN: Week 14 Sneaky Starts
Adam Humphries ($4,900) vs. Saints
This game has an over/under sitting at 56 points, so having some exposure is a near-must in cash games. Targeting a cheap receiver against a secondary that 4for4 ranks 27th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position is a good start. Since Jameis Winston returned as the Buccaneeers’ starting quarterback, Humphries leads the team in targets, and he also leads the team in red-zone targets over the last six weeks. Playing primarily in the slot, Humphries draws one of the easiest matchups of the week against P.J. Williams, who allows the third-most fantasy points per target of any Week 14 starting corner.
