Fantasy Football: Week 15 Target and Snap Report

Looking at the statistical trends behind the numbers that can help uncover fantasy value.

Author:
Mark Deming
Publish date:
Dec 10, 2019

aj-brown-titans-raiders — Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

Congratulations to those who advanced last week and had big opening weeks in total point formats. This week's list has the cast of regulars and some newbies to get familiar with for lineup decisions and pickups in an upcoming pivotal Week 15. Always go with your gut and make sure to finish strong!

PLAYER: SNAP % / TARGET % / TOUCH %

Chargers RB Austin Ekeler: 49.2% / 16.1% / 38.7%

Packers RB Aaron Jones: 58.1% / 19.4% / 61.1%

Falcons WR Olamide Zaccheaus: 30.6% / 9.1% / 4.5%

Giants WR Darius Slayton: 80.8% / 19% / 11.9%

Titans RB Derrick Henry: 59.7% / 2.7% / 51.4%

Broncos TE Noah Fant: 49.2% / 13.8% / 13.8%

49’ers RB Raheem Mostert: 59.7% / 5% / 30%

Bengals RB Joe Mixon: 58.7% / 9.1% / 59.1%

Titans WR A.J. Brown: 83.9% / 13.5% / 11.5%

Cardinals RB David Johnson: 36.7% / 9.1% / 22.7%

Chargers RB Melvin Gordon: 46% / 17.2% / 58.6%

Redskins RB Adrain Peterson: 43.1% / 0%/ 71.4%

Eagles RB Boston Scott: 43.8% / 15.4% /41%

Ravens TE Hayden Hurst: 46.7%/ 10.7% / 10.7%

49’ers WR Emmanuel Sanders: 94%/ 14.3% / 12.7%

Vikings RR Dalvin Cook: 46.6% / 5.9% / 58.8%

Saints RB Latavius Murray: 33.3% / 12.5% / 37.5%

Raiders RB DeAndre Washington: 63.3% / 17.5% / 50%

Colts RB Marlon Mack: 41.3% / 0% / 50%

Bucs TE Cameron Brate: 30.8% / 16.7% / 16.7%

Broncos RB Phillip Lindsay: 52.2% / 6.5% / 58.1%

Browns RB Kareem Hunt: 62.5% / 8.6% / 31.4%

49’ers WR Kendrick Bourne: 56.7% / 10.5% / 7.9%

Packers TE Robert Tonyan Jr.: 32.3% / 5% / 5%

Falcons WR Calvin Ridley: 52.8% / 13.2% / 13.2%

Broncos RB Royce Freeman: 45.8% / 7.4% / 37%

Steelers WR Diontae Johnson: 70% / 19% / 16.7%

Falcons RB Devonta Freeman: 66.7% / 8.3% / 43.8%

Rams RB Todd Gurley: 80% / 7.1% / 43.8%

Browns RB Nick Chubb: 69.6% / 2.6% / 41%

Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott: 98.6% / 6.9% / 29.2%

Analysis and quick hitters

For weeks the data forecasted the dominance of running backs during the playoffs, and that call was big time in Week 14. Twenty of the 31 players that hit Week 14 data points and made the list were RBs. If you have no RBs this year, then you probably have no shot at league championships or playoff points championships. With all the injuries to WRs, this will probably bring the data home further over the next two weeks.

Boston Scott showed flashes in New Orleans and drew comparisons to Darren Sproles. His 41% touch percentage is a number you can’t ignore. With the Eagles' history of playing multiple RBs and the hot hand at the position, Scott could close strong.

The 49ers demonstrated innovative play-calling that most of us expected or anticipated from Kyle Shanahan. With the two remaining 49er games at home, San Francisco fantasy players are in a great position with favorable California weather and timely advances in the offensive play-calling.

Do you think more NFL scouts are going to pay attention to Ole Miss WR prospects moving forward? With the overwhelming success of both A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf, the league is definitely on notice. The fifth round will be too late for both emerging WRs in the upcoming 2020 season-long drafts. Brown’s being compared to Anquan Boldin and Metcalf resembles a young Terrell Owens. Remember the Rebels next year in drafts.

We've hyped the talented Darius Slayton in past analysis and he definitely paid the bills on Monday Night Football vs the Eagles. Slayton's quick cuts and intelligent angles allow him to shake defenders. His breakaway speed reminds me of a young Steve Smith.

Those "Kenyan Drake was a better RB than Derrick Henry at Alabama" rumors need to be put to bed and then some. Henry, in my opinion, is a top-five fantasy player and the best RB in the game entering Week 15. On several teams, I have little-to-no Henry exposure. Drake will be a nifty PPR player in the Kingsbury offense next year, Henry will be a top 10 pick and I imagine most 2019 owners showing draft loyalty to Henry in 2020.

Many of us have dropped Noah Fant at some point this season. Fant has some George Kittle playmaking speed and ability. The Broncos are set up nicely with Sutton and Fant to lead the passing game next year. Drew Lock not only looked the part, but he thinks he's the man and that’s half the battle. Confidence is king at the QB position.

Raheem Mostert is averaging 6.0 YPC and is the hot-hand RB entering Week 15 in San Francisco. Kendrick Bourne has five TDs for all you crafty standard league players who may need a wideout due to a rash of WR injuries.

Kareem Hunt’s streak is alive, five games since returning from suspension, five double-digit fantasy scores. Mayfield definitely seeks out Hunt in the passing game. Chubb and Hunt make a tough combo if Cleveland could sneak into the playoffs,

We made several mentions of a nabbing Joe Mixon at the low point, and those who have Mixon as their RB2 are ready to cash in. Mixon only knows how to go 100 or nothing, and with Andy Dalton back at QB, his aggressive style is paying off.

Diontae Johnson took over the game for the Steelers at one point, making several big plays and sparking his teammates. Once again, if you need WRs due to circumstances.

Besides Lamar, CMC and a few others, isn’t Austin Ekeler the fantasy MVP, especially given where he was taken in season-long formats?

The first-round running back club of Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley and Chubb at the end of this week's list could be the spark many teams need over the final two weeks. All three power backs are looking to pad their numbers as well.