Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Betting Preview

Meeting for the second time over three weeks, Houston hosts Tennessee during NFL Week 17 action. This contest has playoff implications and kickoff is slated for 4:25 p.m. ET on Dec. 29, 2019, at NRG Stadium in Texas. The Texans won the AFC South title while the Titans are looking to lock down the final AFC Wild Card playoff position.

Spread: Titans -3.5 (-105) | Texans +3.5 (-115)

Moneyline: Titans (-185) | Texans (+165)

Game Total: OVER 45 (-110) | UNDER 45 (-110)

Tennessee Titans’ Recent Form

Despite a 38-28 Week 16 home loss to New Orleans, Tennessee moved into sixth place in the AFC standings after Pittsburgh lost to the Jets. Without running back Derrick Henry to help control the clock, the Titans let a 14-0 second-quarter lead slip away. Over its previous two, Tennessee lost 24-21 at home to Houston and won 42-21 in Oakland.

· Betting Record: SU 8-7 | ATS 8-7 | O/U 9-6

· Offense: 10th, scoring 24.5 points per game

· Defense: 13th, allowing 21.1 points per game

· Turnover Rank: 10th with a +5 differential

Houston Texans’ Recent Form

Houston claimed the AFC South title, its fourth over five seasons, with a 23-20 win in Tampa last week. Playing an injury ravaged Buccaneers offense, the Texans defense forced five turnovers including a Bradley Roby pick-six. Prior to the Week 15 win in Tennessee, the Texans lost 38-24 at home to Denver during Week 14 action.

· Betting Record: SU 10-5 | ATS 7-7-1 | O/U 6-9

· Offense: 11, scoring 24.3 points per game

· Defense: 18, allowing 23.3 points per game

· Turnover Rank: 16th with a +1 differential

Titans vs. Texans Playoff Scenarios: What’s at Stake?

Playing a “win and in” contest, Tennessee clinches the second AFC Wild Card berth with a victory over Houston. The Titans can sneak into the postseason with a loss if Pittsburgh and Indianapolis lose to Baltimore and Jacksonville. If the Titans, Steelers and Colts finish with 8-8 records, Pittsburgh wins the tiebreaker, which would eliminate Tennessee.

Kansas City hosts Los Angeles in early Sunday NFL Week 17 action, so Houston will know its best possible playoff position before this game. If the Chiefs defeat the Chargers at Arrowhead Stadium, Houston will be locked in as the fourth seed and may rest some starters. With a win, the Texans finish third overall if Los Angeles upsets Kansas City.

Texans vs. Titans Recent History – Week 15 Rematch

Houston took control of the AFC South title race with a 24-21 win in Tennessee during Week 15 action. The Texans went up 24-14 in the fourth quarter before the Titans scored late to make the final score close. Houston moved to 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS versus Tennessee dating back to 2012. The Texans have won the last seven meetings in Houston.

Injury Update: Titans Gain Henry – Texans Lose Fuller

Shorthanded last week, Tennessee has a full squad back at practice. That includes running back Derrick Henry (hamstring) who was a precautionary scratch last week. Henry was held to 85 rushing yards and no scores during the Week 15 meeting. Prior to that though, Henry racked up 599 yards and seven TD over his previous four starts.

Texans receiver Will Fuller has been ruled out with a groin injury. Keke Coutee is expected to replace Fuller between DeAndre Hopkins and Kenny Stills. If Kansas City clinches third place in the AFC playoff standings prior to this match, expect Deshaun Watson, Carlos Hyde, plus Hopkins and Stills, to play limited snaps (if any) in this game.

NRG Stadium Is a House of Horrors for Tennessee

With so much on the line, this would be a good time for the Titans to earn their first win in Houston since Week 17 in 2011. While the players have changed some, Tennessee has been outscored by a 251-116 margin during its seven-game losing streak at NRG Stadium. The Texans went 6-1 ATS and the game total hit over in six of the seven contests.

Tennessee is 4-3 SU and ATS on the road this season with wins and covers against the Raiders, Colts, Falcons and Browns. Houston is 5-2 SU but a leaky 2-5 ATS at home. The Texans failed to cover versus the Broncos, Colts, Raiders, Panthers and Jaguars. Titans head coach Mike Vrabel is preferred over Texans bench boss Bill O’Brien.

Houston vs. Tennessee Final Thoughts and Pick

Playing a third straight playoff style Week 17 game, Tennessee has experience in meaningful season-ending contests. The Titans lost at home to the Colts and were knocked out of the playoffs in Week 17 last season. Tennessee earned an AFC Wild Card berth with a win at home over the Jaguars during its final game the previous year.

Barring injury, or the score getting out of hand, Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown will play the full game for Tennessee. Backup A.J. McCarron stepping in for Deshaun Watson will downgrade the entire Houston offense. Betting on Bill O'Brien to see the light and rest some of his key starters, lay the line and back the Titans.

Pick: Tennessee Titans -3.5

Season Record: 34-52-2