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FROST Score: The Training Camp Stories That Matter, and Those That Don’t

The new contract for Josh Allen? The hype surrounding select rookies? Joe Judge’s style? A look at what really matters...

You’re having a nice, relaxing summer and then, all of a sudden, it’s a Thursday night and Ben DiNucci pops on your television screen. Preseason football. Desperation sacks from bottom-of-the-rung fourth-stringers. Mike McCarthy feigning interest deep into the third quarter, trying to perfect his, We need to run the ball more despite my analytics awakening face. Meaningless booth chatter about Garrett Gilbert’s strong offseason. Football is here even if it’s not really here yet. It’s like the moment each spring when the local news starts warning you about cicadas. Your life is about to change for a little while.

It places some urgency on getting caught up. After spending a week bouncing between a few camps and getting reacquainted with the tidal wave of football news that’s about to hit once the Olympics end—speed-climbing is incredible, by the way—it’s clear we’re in for a strange 2021. Rarely has there been a training camp with this much heft and we’re only a few weeks in. There are established quarterbacks beginning to wiggle loose, preparing another tectonic shift. There are coaches making noise. There are legitimate red flags flying in a few camps. There are, obviously, some well-earned hype trains beginning to formulate at the station.

There are also conjured figments of nothingness being puffed up in areas of the country where there is not much football to discuss.

Let’s play a little game evaluating these stories for validity. Are they going to matter in a month? Six months? Let’s rate them on the Football Relevance Over Sustained Time scale, or FROST for short. (Also, inquire below as to how you can become FROST certified and help us determine future relevance.)

A score of 10 is highly relevant six months from now, where a score of zero means this is merely training camp flotsam.

• Josh Allen signs a $43 million per year contract

We’ll leave the contract minutiae to the aspiring lawyers. The relevant details, for now, are that Josh Allen signed a deal nestling him right underneath Patrick Mahomes at $43 million per year. Allen also has a better percentage of total guarantees and more practical guarantees at signing. It’s interesting how quickly the market bridged the gap between Russell Wilson’s $35 million and Deshaun Waton’s $39 million with Mahomes’s $45 million far outpacing the field. Since Mahomes’s deal was signed, Dak Prescott eclipsed the $40 million mark and Allen pulled the compensation high water mark further along.

Now, we have Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson awaiting deals, not to mention Aaron Rodgers theoretically coming up for a new contract again soon. Matthew Stafford only has one more year left on his contract after the 2021 season. Will the Browns and or Ravens allow Mayfield or Jackson to reset the market? Typically these things tend to inch along once a heap of quarterbacks are due to be paid at the same time, with one outlier swinging in to wreck the landscape again. Does Mayfield have a case that he’s worth more than Allen at this point? Does Jackson? Do either of them wait and gamble on their 2021 given how talented both rosters are? Do the Rams force themselves to pay Stafford handsomely again—he’s only 33!—adding to their already topheavy roster if he succeeds in McVay’s offense?

The points?

• Allen gets us one step closer to $50 million

• The deal forces a lot of teams with young quarterbacks they may be unsure about to make some high-risk, middle-reward investments

FROST Score: 9

• Trey Lance might beat out Jimmy Garoppolo in training camp

By now we’ve all seen the fadeaway deep pass to Trent Sherfield, which, for those who aren’t watching every throw in camp could solidify some conclusions. Lance hype has justifiably grown to the point where it has its own ecosystem and orbit. All of this benefits Kyle Shanahan, who is probably just as happy allowing the rest of the NFC West to guess when and if he’ll start Lance this season and force them to prepare for something they may not see.

The reason we’re scoring this a 10, though, is because Lance will start soon—those who know Shanahan describe a coach completely infatuated and creatively energized from Lance’s Pro Day circuit—and that will place a good quarterback on the trade market while also forcing teams to defend an offense we’ve never seen before. Shanahan’s offense with Lance is not going to be a redux of Shanahan’s Robert Griffin III offense—Griffin III and Lance are entirely different quarterbacks, and one might argue that Lance’s skillset more intimately marries with the outside zone. The league has spent years trying to simultaneously water down and stop what Shanahan is doing offensively, but Lance blows all of their plotting and imitation out of the water. Not one of the teams running the 49ers’ offense—Green Bay, Tennessee, Atlanta and the Jets, to name a few—have a quarterback with the size and speed element that Lance does (that includes Ryan Tannehill). The system already poses some significant mismatch advantages for non-mobile quarterbacks, allowing San Francisco to basically play 11-on-10 football. Lance tips the scales further, giving them a two-man advantage at the snap based on blocking schemes and play designs.

We’ve been accused of shoveling charcoal into this hype furnace at an alarming rate, but it won’t look silly when Lance is lapping the field for offensive rookie of the year.

FROST Score: 10

• Joe Burrow is struggling during early portions of training camp

Early reports from Cincinnati describe Burrow as making uncharacteristic mistakes and wincing a bit on his injured knee. The Athletic noted that he lifted his leg up to avoid contact during a drill where players were not even rushing.

This should be expected. Burrow is a young adult who just saw his working life and childhood dream flash before his eyes. He played dutifully behind a threadbare offensive line last year and was a step ahead in the Rookie of the Year race despite having one of the least open sets of wide receivers in the NFL. So, it’s fair to say that any hesitancy is understandable, especially when the Bengals still did little to upgrade the offensive line in front of him this offseason.

Quarterbacks tend to work through this. Players coming off shoulder surgery need to work into a full throwing motion. Quarterbacks coming off ACL tears are often more hesitant to leave the pocket or avoid traffic laterally. Thankfully the Bengals are holding him out of the preseason, which should allow him to take the proper pace through his recovery progression.

It’s important to remember that Burrow tore his MCL and PCL back in November. If the Bengals are interested in avoiding a battered Andrew Luck scenario; they may not even be considering Burrow for the first few weeks of the season anyway. He’s getting rest. The team is structuring practices toward different throw depths. And, so many times in practice, the defense knows where the ball is going, which artificially inflates pick numbers. So there is a lot of context to what we’re seeing and a lot of unknown to sort through.

We’ll take our chances on Burrow eventually making a sound recovery so long as the Bengals stay out of his way.

FROST Score: 2

• Jordan Love’s first preseason action could be a harbinger of decisions to come

There wasn’t a preseason last year, so Jordan Love will see his first extended action on Saturday against the Texans. While we’re in agreement that Love is not as good as Aaron Rodgers, what we’re interested in finding out is how well he can play within the scheme. Green Bay’s offense is incredibly friendly for boot-able quarterbacks who