NFL Week 1 Primer: Best Games, Key Questions and Predictions
Welcome to Week 1 of the NFL season. With Thursday night’s opener behind us, we welcome a full slate and a load of uncertainty as we greet the 2022–2023 football calendar. Alongside Albert Breer, we’ll take you through the Sunday and Monday games, noting the best matchups and what we’re looking for.
We encourage you to join us on Sunday for our live blog, where we can trade notes and discuss what should be a fascinating week after a month of meaningless dress rehearsals.
GAMES OF THE WEEK
Mayfield was traded to the Panthers during the offseason and now gets a shot at beating the Browns.
David Butler II/USA TODAY Sports
Browns at Panthers, 1 p.m. ET Sunday: While this is obviously billed as Baker Mayfield vs. the Browns, I’m personally interested in seeing how a healthy Jacoby Brissett operates the Kevin Stefanski–Gary Kubiak hybrid offense and how much better he is than a 60% Mayfield a season ago. While the Browns are ultimately making a long-term gamble by signing Deshaun Watson, one has to wonder whether they could have been patient with Mayfield and saved themselves the headaches. Obviously, we’ll have an eye on Mayfield’s body language and there will be a camera perma-fixed on the demonstrative former No. 1 pick. But to beat his former team, might he have to rein that all in? — Conor Orr
Patriots at Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET Sunday: This one really is about the unknown. What will the Dolphins’ offense look like under coach Mike McDaniel—long Kyle Shanahan’s secret weapon as a run-game savant and game-planning star—with Tua Tagovailoa throwing to receivers Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. And what, for that matter, do second-chancers Joe Judge and Matt Patricia, both coaching exclusively on offense for the first time, have cooked up for Tagovailoa’s old Alabama backup Mac Jones? And how about the fact that you’ll have Belichick’s old secondary coach, Josh Boyer, going head-to-head with his old boss Patricia? For teams that are so familiar with each other in so many ways, there’s still a lot of guesswork to what form this game will take, which should be the fun of it. — Albert Breer
Packers at Vikings, 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday: Aaron Rodgers might have the best defense he’s played alongside—if Devonte Wyatt draws the start on Sunday, the Packers will roll out seven home-grown first-round picks on that side of the ball for the first snap of the season. And in camp, the Packers looked like they were playing to their talent on that side of the ball in standing their ground against Rodgers and the offense. Add Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon and a top-flight run game to the equation, and the Packers should be able to buy Rodgers time to develop a rapport with his revamped receiver group. And, yet, it’s a good bet all eyes will be on how that receiver group, sans Davante Adams, is coming along. As for the Vikings? Yes, there’s a new coach and a new GM, and for that reason a roster that’s stayed relatively static thinks you’ll see a group that comes out playing faster and freer than before. — Albert Breer
Chiefs at Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday: This will be our first chance to see Patrick Mahomes as more of a point guard than a superstar, full-court scorer. The Chiefs are ready for this stage of his evolution, using Mahomes’s arm talent without taxing him as a backfield escape artist. Hill is gone to the Dolphins, which means Kansas City will have to beat teams more strategically. It has all the components—the burner, the possession receiver, the blocking-receiver hybrid, the bully—but spread out over five players who will be shuffled in and out of lineups. Personally, I think there’s a chance this makes the Chiefs even better. Ask those close to Mahomes and they’ll attest: He has otherworldly physical gifts, but it would be great if he didn’t have to use them all the time. — Conor Orr
Raiders at Chargers, 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday: Who doesn’t want the rematch of last year’s regular-season finale? A lot has changed for both of these teams since Brandon Staley’s decision to call an ill-fated timeout in overtime. Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler run the Raiders now. Derek Carr’s throwing to Adams again. Chandler Jones is opposite Maxx Crosby. Khalil Mack is opposite Joey Bosa. JC Jackson’s a Charger, too (though his status for Sunday is up in the air). And, yet, this one will still be about how last season ended—and the chance a talented Charger team has to emphatically put that moment behind it. — Albert Breer
Buccaneers at Cowboys, 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday: There will naturally be a focus on Tom Brady, but I’m watching the Cowboys’ offense to see how it spreads the wealth throughout its backfield. I have been waiting for the true promise of a two-back backfield to emerge in the NFL, with the Cowboys and Jaguars best suited to show us something special this year. Tony Pollard is a talented player who has been underutilized in the waning years of Ezekiel Elliott’s prime years as a running back. There is such an incredible buffet of presnap motion options and formational looks available to the Cowboys based on their personnel. Will they take advantage of it? — Conor Orr
QUICK QUESTIONS
What is your one big prediction for Week 1?
Jaguars coach Doug Pederson hopes to elevate the play of Lawrence, who struggled as a rookie.
Matt Pendleton/USA Today network
Orr: Trevor Lawrence throws for more than 350 yards and three touchdowns. While Ron Rivera is as good a defensive gameplanner as there is in the NFL, it’s impossible to download and prepare for a team that shredded its past. The Jaguars’ offense is going to look drastically different than it did a year ago, with Travis Etienne complicating some coverage schemes. Plus, Lawrence will have receivers not running into one another (another not-so bold prediction).
Breer: Trey Lance shuts everyone up—for the time being. I mentioned in my mailbag this week how Washington with Kyle Shanahan borderline hid Robert Griffin III’s talent through the 2012 preseason, then tore apart a really good Saints team with Griffin running a totally different offense (one styled after what he did at Baylor) in Week 1. Don’t be surprised when you see on Sunday in Chicago just how much the 49ers have been holding back on Lance. I don’t know what it’ll look like in Week 9, but I think it’s going to be a problem for defenses in September.
Which team most needs a win in Week 1?
Orr: It’s a four-way tie between the Cowboys, Bills, Chargers and Broncos. The Cowboys need a win to get the ghost of Sean Payton off their backs. The Chargers need a victory to avoid a hangover from the end of last year. The Broncos need a win to get Russell Wilson the emotional win over Pete Carroll, which will bleed into the rest of the early season. And the Bills need a win because everyone believes they can win the Super Bowl. What’s worse than laying an egg in the opener in prime time?
Breer: Conor didn’t leave me with many options here! But I think it actually might be … the Patriots. It’s been a weird summer in Foxborough. There are doubts, even internally, about how the offense has been put together. And a bad performance out of the gate could compound those doubts. If that happens, the Patriots’s next three games are against the Steelers, Ravens and Packers, which could turn Jones’s second year, a breakout for a lot of quarterbacks, one of retooling.
Which coach or player is most under pressure in Week 1?
Orr: Trey Lance. Sure, we could be making too big a deal about Jimmy Garoppolo being on the roster and Lance not being voted a captain. We also said Ja’Marr Chase couldn’t catch and Joe Burrow was too hesitant in the pocket during the preseason last year. But there could also be fire where there is smoke.
Breer: Kyler Murray. He got the commitment he wanted—a five-year, $230 million extension that ties the Cardinals to him for the foreseeable future. And that should take the pressure off, right? Only there was the homework clause. There are doubts about his place as a leader in the Arizona locker room. There’s the fact he’ll be without DeAndre Hopkins. And oh by the way … that’s Patrick Mahomes he’s playing against on Sunday.
Who is the rookie you are most excited to see in Week 1?
Orr: Sauce Gardner. We’ve seen how a lockdown cornerback can instantly transform a defense, especially in Florham Park. Gardner and Derek Stingley Jr. were the prizes of this year’s draft, said one defensive coordinator, who told me this week that he hoped they would fall. As obsessed as we were with the pass rushers (and rightfully so), we could see earlier on how an isolated position such as cornerback will fare against the rest of the NFL. Will the Jets utilize Gardner at all in their plan to slow down Ravens tight end Mark Andrews?
Breer: Stingley, Jr., which seems a little off the radar, right? Here’s the thing: It’s hard to overstate what a monster Stingley was as an LSU freshman. On a team that boasted Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Grant Delpit, K’Lavon Chaisson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Patrick Queen, coaches in Baton Rouge would tell scouts that Stingley was the best player on the team. After his true freshman year, he got hurt and discontent, the LSU program spiraled, and we never got to see that guy again. Will he emerge as an NFL star? I think it’s possible. And if he assimilates to the pros as quickly as he did to college football, it could happen fast.
Which team will everyone be talking about after Week 1?
Orr: The Ravens: Why would I stop now? I’ve been yakking about this team all offseason. I think the Ravens put on a vintage Lamar-ian performance in Week 1. And with Jackson not likely to be under a contract beyond this year, we’ll all take in the Aaron Judge-ian vibes (another player who turned down what he felt like was a below-market deal only to torch opponents throughout the year).
Breer: The Buccaneers. I think, at least to start the year, they’re gonna be really good again with Tom Brady, who again will have been given something to prove. I also think the Cowboys are susceptible right now, with injuries on the line (Tyron Smith) and at receiver (Michael Gallup, James Washington), which leaves Dak Prescott with a very heavy burden that he’ll likely have to carry through September. Plus, the Sunday night game usually gets talked about on Monday morning, so there’s that, too.
Which underdog has the best shot to win outright in Week 1?
Orr: Patriots. They are getting 3.5 points on the road in Miami. I think we may have made too big a deal out of their offseason experimentations with different blocking schemes. I think we also forget sometimes that Bill Belichick is still Bill Belichick.
Breer: Jaguars. I really have only one way to go with this, if I want to stay consistent with my picks. And count me as a believer that Doug Pederson and all the quarterbacking infrastructure he’s assembled on his staff (Press Taylor, Mike McCoy, Jim Bob Cooter) will lead to Trevor Lawrence making a very big jump in Year 2.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Flacco will start at quarterback for the Jets until Zach Wilson returns from his knee injury.
Robert Deutsch/USA TODAY Sports
Orr: I’ve heard Joe Flacco wants to play into his 40s. I wrote a couple of weeks ago that I’d be cautiously optimistic about his ability to run the Jets’ offense. Maybe they won’t beat the Ravens, but maybe we forgot about Flacco in terms of his ability to be an above-average placeholder in this offense for Zach Wilson.
Breer: Here’s a weird fact to leave you with—this is the first time since 2007 that there won’t be a single rookie starting at quarterback in Week 1. Even in years when the first-rounders didn’t get starting jobs for Week 1—2014 and ’17—a couple of guys taken outside the first round (Carr in ’14 and DeShone Kizer in ’17) started the opener. So do with that what you will.
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