49ers @ Saints: Live Updates and Analysis
This is the live blog for the San Francisco 49ers' Week 10 road game against the New Orleans Saints. I will update this frequently with information and analysis from my living room.
11:55 Here are the 49ers inactives:
11:57 Here are my keys to the game for the 49ers:
49ers Offensive Keys
1. The Return of the Jimmy Gimmes - Those are the shovel passes, screens -- anything that doesn't travel past the line of scrimmage. The gadget plays that have propped up Jimmy Garoppolo's stats since 2019. The stuff the 49ers used to beat the Rams and Patriots just a few weeks ago. Strangely, when backup quarterback Nick Mullens plays, Shanahan doesn't call those plays nearly as often, which is a big reason why the 49ers have lost more frequently with Mullens at quarterback. But when Shanahan calls his Jimmy Gimmes, it almost doesn't matter who plays quarterback for the 49ers.
2. Nick Mullens and Jordan Reed on Third Down - Shanahan can call all the Jimmy Gimmes in the world, but the 49ers won't sustain drives if Mullens doesn't make big throws on third down. And he won't have George Kittle or Deebo Samuel to throw to. Look for Mullens to target backup tight end Jordan Reed on third down. Reed is the 49ers best route runner and possession receiver when healthy, and he appears healthy.
49ers Defensive Keys
1. Take Away Drew Brees' Short Throws - The 49ers can't pressure Brees -- their pass rush stinks without Nick Bosa and Dee Ford, and Brees' passer rating against the blitz this season in a gaudy 119. The 49ers need to flood the underneath zones and force him to scramble or throw down the field, because the Saints are a ball-control, move-the-chains offense. Force them to call lower-percentage passes.
2. Play Tarvarius Moore at Free Safety - Moore is the 49ers' backup free safety and their fastest defensive back. He has by far the most range of the 49ers safeties, and he didn't play much against the Saints last season. Marcell Harris started at strong safety and got burned. Look for Moore to take his place, because the 49ers will need a rangy safety in centerfield when they try to force Brees to throw deep.
11:59 Here are Sports Illustrated's Kyle Mosley's keys to the game for the Saints:
Saints Offensive Keys
- Drew Brees' Consistency - The effectiveness of Brees spreading the football to various targets was on full display against Tampa Bay last Sunday. Twelve different receivers caught the football for the Saints. This variance will prevent Kyle Shanahan's defensive squad from keying-in on one or two main targets like running back Alvin Kamara or wide receiver Michael Thomas.
- The Big Homies - The Saints offensive line has been maturing and dominating opposing defensive lines in the first half of 2020. The 49ers are beat-up and lost without star defensive end Nick Bosa. Expect a heavy dose of the run game with running backs Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray slashing and gashing the Niners' defensive interior.
Saints Defensive Keys
- Edge Rushers Creating Havoc - Surprisingly, New Orleans defensive end Trey Hendrickson is ranked 3rd in the NFL with 7.5 sacks and not Cam Jordan or Marcus Davenport. Davenport's return from an early-season toe and elbow injuries has been the most significant impact player on the edge. He and Jordan's QB pressures, tip balls, arm redirections, and speed rushes have resulted in several "turning points" in Saints games. PFF has New Orleans at #1 with a 48% pressure rate since Week 5. The Niners banged-up offensive line will have to watch these three Sunday afternoon.
- The Entire Secondary - The one word which comes to mind for this unit is FOCUS. The Saints corners and safeties are prone to mental lapses during contests. By doing so, they have allowed teams to climb back into contention with "chunk plays" to receivers and tight ends. Cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins tend to play down to the level of competition. On Sunday, they cannot allow themselves to have an undisciplined game against the 49ers receivers.
12:05 Here is my pregame show:
1:24 The Saints win the toss and defer. The 49ers will start the game at their 25-yard line.
1:34 On second and 3 from the Saints 4-yard line, Nick Mullens throws a touchdown pass to a wide open Brandon Aiyuk. That was a 13-play masterpiece from Kyle Shanahan. Mullens completed 6 of 7 passes for 47 yards. Brandon Aiyuk caught three of those passes and gained 30 yards. And the 49ers converted all three of their third downs.
49ers 7, Saints 0.
1:30 On third and 2 from the Saints 30, Drew Brees misses an open throw to Michael Thomas, and the Saints go three and out. After the punt, the 49ers will take over at their 25.
1:45 On first down, Brandon Aiyuk loses eight yards running and end around. The 49ers go three and out. They punt, but the Saints fumble and the 49ers recover.
1:53 On third and goal from the 5, Jerick McKinnon whiffs on a block and Nick Mullens gets sacked by linebacker Demario Davis.
1:56 Robbie Gould makes a 32-yard field goal.
49ers 10, Saints 0.
1:56 The good news: Mullens has completed 8 of his first 10 passes and Ross Dwelley made a semi-diving catch during the past drive. The bad news: The offensive line is playing poorly and the 49ers can't run the ball.
1:59 The Saints return the kickoff 75 yards to the 49ers 25.
2:01 Alvin Kamara loses six yards on first down, and the Saints go three and out. Drew Brees threw a deep pass to tight end Jared Cook on second down, but Fred Warner was covering him so Cook wasn't open.
2:02 The Saints make a 49-yard field goal.
49ers 10, Saints 3.
2:09 On fourth and 1 at the 49ers 49, Kyle Shanahan decides to punt, and the ball bounces into the end zone. No guts. Hand the ball to the best fullback in the game. Come on.
2:14 The 49ers force a punt, but the punt hits Ken Webster in the face and the Saints recover at the 49ers 21.
2:19 On third and goal from the 1, Alvin Kamara runs around the left end for a touchdown. Dre Greenlaw could get off a wide-receiver block. That drive was extended by a bogus roughing-the-passer call against Kentavius Street on what was a perfectly legal sack.
49ers 10, Saints 10.
2:35 On third and 1 from the Saints 41, Shanahan calls a play-action bootleg pass to Aiyuk. Incomplete. On fourth and 1, Shanahan calls a run for Jerick McKinnon, who loses two yards. Kyle Juszczyk wasn't on the field for either play. Shameful play calls by Kyle Shanahan.
2:45 On first and goal from the 3, Jimmie Ward gives up a touchdown catch to Kamara.
49ers 10, Saints 17.
2:50 On third and 5 from the 49ers 30, Saints defensive end Trey Hendrickson knocks down a screen pass intended for Brandon Aiyuk. The 49ers punt.
2:51 Brees takes a knee. The Saints will get the ball to start the second half.
3:02 Kyle Shanahan gave McKinnon a whopping 16 touches in the first half and he gained just 41 measly yards. I'm not saying Shanahan is tanking. But if he were, giving the ball to McKinnon 16 times in the first half would be the best way.
3:07 Jameis Winston is in at quarterback for the Saints. Drew Brees is out with what appears to be a chest injury he suffered when he got hit by Kentavius Street.
3:11 On third and 3 from the Saints 41, Javon Kinlaw tackles Taysom Hill for no gain. Best play of Kinlaw's career. After the punt, the 49ers get the ball at their 31.
3:21 On third and 12, Mullens throws an interception to Saints safety Malcolm Jenkins. Saints take over at their 33.
3:25 On third and 5, Javon Kinlaw sacks Taysom Hill. That's Kinlaw's first career sack. Great play. The 49ers should give him Arik Armstead's game check this week. The 49ers get the ball at their 19 after the punt.
3:30 McKinnon gives up a sack on first down, then Mullens gets hit on second down from a nickel blitz the 49ers haven't blocked all game. The 49ers go three and out. After the punt, the Saints get the ball at their 36.
3:45 On third and goal from the 5, Winston throws an incomplete pass intended for Michael Thomas. The 49ers just made back-to-back goal-line stands, because Fred Warner committed a facemask penalty on third and 15. Way to hang tough. If only the offense would show up to play.
3:46 The Saints make a 23-yard field goal.
49ers 10, Saints 20.
3:57 The 49ers bench Nick Mullens mid series and bring in C.J. Beathard on third and 16. He throws deep to a wide open Richie James Jr. and almost gets picked because he underthrows him by five yards. The 49ers punt.
4:01 On third and 8, Arik Armstead flushes Winston out of the pocket and Winston throws the ball away.
4:03 Richie James Jr. fumbles the fair catch and the the Saints recover.
4:06 On second and goal from the 1, Kamara scores a touchdown on the ground. Don't blame the defense for this loss. It was terrific.
49ers 10, Saints 27.
4:16 Mullens returns to the game and leads the 49ers just outside the red zone, but on third and 6 from the 22 his pass gets batted down and the 49ers kick a field goal.
49ers 13, Saints 27.
4:29 On second and 10 from the Saints 18, Nick Mullens takes a shot into the end zone and gets picked off by Patrick Robinson. Kendrick Bourne was the intended receiver and he was not open.
The Saints win. Stay tuned for the 49ers grades.
