49ers Four Questions: MVP, Run D, and Matching Up with Baltimore
The MVP field is narrowing and the debate is intensifying, meanwhile, the Niners have work to do on run defense and tackling to prepare for Baltimore and rare matchup concerns.
Will Brock Purdy win MVP?
It’s his to lose. Three ways he can lose it in my view. Lamar Jackson has a spectacular game and beats the Niners on Christmas night. Tyreek Hill gets to 2,000 yards receiving, but he needs 141 per game and finishes with Dallas, Baltimore, and Buffalo. Purdy doesn’t play well against the Ravens and the media rallies around an alternative. In likelihood, those three scenarios don’t materialize, and Purdy wins it.
Some sports cable shows are on an “Anybody But Purdy” campaign, one in desperation floating Micah Parsons. However, this is a vote of fifty sportswriters, not fifty sports cable talking heads.
I believe the MVP should reflect the season. The problem for voters is the true MVP this year is the 49ers offense and Kyle Shanahan, not just one player.
The argument for Purdy is that in a season where the Niner efficiency dominated the game, where Purdy is 2nd in yards but 21st in attempts, then efficiency – and Purdy - should win it.
Some media members want to see the wow play, they want to see the amazing. Purdy wins by being the smartest quarterback in the league, and that’s not easily seen.
It isn’t seen that Philadelphia blitzed on a third of the Niners dropbacks and Purdy went 10-10 for over 220 yards and three touchdowns. It’s not seen that Seattle denied the short throws and Purdy went 6-6 intermediate-to-deep for over 200 yards and two scores. But once that is known, the game manager stuff needs to end.
The media talk about the Niners weapons, what some fail to recognize is that Purdy is one of those weapons.
What is the problem with the 49ers run defense?
A season-high 234 yards for Arizona. Telling that it came without Arik Armstead.
The run defense is a function of skillsets. The 49ers linebacker skill set profile calls for the speed to shoot the gaps and make the tackle on the ball carrier. The scheme is heavily dependent on the defensive tackles occupying blockers to free the linebackers to make the stop. Without Armstead and Javon Hargrave, now the linebackers have to take on blockers and they’re too small to make the play.
In addition, without the starters, the defense is forced into unaccustomed roles and can play out of phase. Shanahan this week spoke to Niners defenders overpursuing and reacting in uncharacteristic ways. Improvisation led to the defense not swarming to the ball as one. That will have to be corrected against Baltimore.
What’s the deal with the missed tackles?
12, 14, and then 16 in the last three games. The league’s 4th oldest team rears its aged head. They need a bye and may get two of them.
The Niners likely won’t need a win against the Rams and will rest starters, just a question of how long, a quarter, a half, the game. This team needs the rest to recharge for the playoffs.
The missed tackles are a function of the run defense mistakes. Over pursuit, wrong angles, out of position. Without Armstead and Hargrave, the 49ers' back seven are a fish out of water.
The Rams took Baltimore to OT, are the Ravens a serious threat?
This game isn’t about common opponents it’s about matchups.
Shanahan makes a core assumption in his scheme, that the defense will lack great linebackers and safeties, and will therefore have to commit as a unit to stopping Christian McCaffrey as a runner and receiver. McCaffrey becomes a magnet drawing the defense away, not just his man. That opens the field for the rest of the Niners weapons.
That assumption works for Shanahan, most of the league chooses to save on their cap at linebacker and safety. That played into the routs of Dallas and Philadelphia.
However, when the defense does invest in linebacker and safety, that’s a problem. Cleveland shut the Niners down. Baltimore is built similarly, with a volume of pass rushers upfront, fast physical linebackers, and a shapeshifting safety in Kyle Hamilton.
They are the league’s top-ranked defense because each position group has an elite playmaker, and they play cohesively at all three levels.
The matchup advantage the Niners are accustomed to having over nearly all of the league is gone in this one. Games are matchups. Baltimore can limit McCaffrey, which then allows them to defend all of the 49ers weapons.
That doesn’t mean the Niners won’t win, just that it’ll be a lot harder than pointing to the Rams game and saying the Ravens aren’t all that. Baltimore matches up well with the Niners, so it’ll likely be close.
