49ers Four Questions: Sorting out the MVP Race and the Playoffs
The Niners are separating from the league in their closing run to the playoffs. This week, making sense of the MVP debate, breaking down the playoffs, and some bowl games to scout for offensive linemen.
Should Brock Purdy be MVP and what about the pushback against him?
If Purdy continues to play at his current level in the final month of the season, he deserves to win MVP. However, his chances are limited.
The national media sees this team as The Kyle Shanahans. If they peel back a layer, they see the weapons. Not enough realize that Purdy is now one of the weapons.
In a race this close it’s about how you finish the season. If the quarterback of a contender wins out, he’ll be the MVP favorite. Purdy and Lamar Jackson have the best chance of doing that. People are sleeping on Lamar.
Dak Prescott is the favorite for the moment, but the Cowboys' closing schedule is difficult with Buffalo, Miami, Detroit, and Washington - with only the Lions game at home.
Purdy’s chances for MVP are hurt by where he was drafted, that he’s not dominant physically, that he has the best team in the league around him, and Kyle Shanahan is in his best year as head coach and play designer.
Game manager, no Cam. Game managers don’t go 10-10 for over 200 yards and three TDs against the blitz one week and 6-6 intermediate to deep for over 200 yards and two touchdowns the next.
In my view, Purdy has too much resistance against him nationally to win it. Unfair bias, goal post moving? Yes, and absolutely.
The national bias against Purdy is easily proven. Give Purdy’s stats and 10-3 record to Patrick Mahomes and Mahomes would be the clear favorite for MVP. Bang.
Does winning the MVP matter?
No. Purdy has said that an MVP award is a team award, it’s about what the team has accomplished. Spot on.
Can you tell me which years Joe Montana won MVP? Can you tell me which years he won the Lombardi Trophy? Zoom out from the now and view the game through the prism of history. The Lombardi is eternal. Brock to his credit gets that completely.
Some want both MVP and Lombardi, and that’s fine, but the true validation of Purdy, Shanahan, and the team is a championship.
Grant Cohn nails this point, his scenario is you have a halftime reunion at Levi's in ten years. Win the title and you're legendary, thunderous applause, standing ovation. Fail to get one and it’s a polite sitting down golf clap.
MVP reflects media bias. Legacy is about rings.
Speaking of rings, how do the playoffs shake out at the moment?
In the eighties, the 49ers had a tailspin one year and Bill Walsh said the key was to have your downturn early enough in the season that you could recover from it. He pointed to other teams that had their fall too late and couldn’t get their level of play up to where they needed it to be for the playoffs.
That applies to this year. Niners early fall, recovery, and rolling. Philadelphia, late fall, and tailspin. We’ll see if Dallas can close well with a tough schedule in the last month.
The Niners need to win out to get the top seed, but if they lose to Baltimore the key will be to have the No. 2 seed locked up against Detroit before the final game against the Rams. The Lions are the team to root for to lose, that would guarantee the Niners can rest starters before the playoffs and recharge physically.
On matchups, the Dallas linebackers and the Philadelphia back seven look too vulnerable to the Niners' attack. One factor with Detroit, they get Chauncey Gardner-Johnson back for the playoffs, he’ll help.
In the AFC, the Christmas game will tell if the Ravens can get consistent pressure from their defensive line and if the Niners can contain Lamar Jackson running. Kansas City has their best defense in years but their worst set of receivers. With Mahomes, Andy Reid, and Steve Spagnuolo they can’t be overlooked.
What December bowl games are worth catching to scout potential Niners draft picks at OL?
If you are so inclined (raises hand). These are games through the 28th, I’ll post a list for the remaining games in a couple of weeks.
12/23 Birmingham Bowl: Duke-Troy
Graham Barton (Duke) OT – Expected to play inside in the NFL, he's athletic, but does he have the requisite power? Projected in the late first around the Niner pick.
12/28 Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma-Arizona
Jordan Morgan (AZ) OT – Mocked frequently as a potential Niner pick in the first. Fast and smart. Some think he’ll need to move inside in the league, but the Niners like to put guard/tackle hybrids outside.
Tyler Guyton (OU) OT – Unpolished but he has the requisite physical tools. Some mocks have him late 1st, most early 2nd.
Cayden Green (OU) OG – Can’t be drafted a true freshman but watch him erase people. I think he has the talent to be a top-ten pick down the road.
My current OT Niner wish list, late 1st:
1. Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State) RT – Quick and violent, a perfect fit. I think he should go no later than top-20, but some mocks have him falling to the Niners.
2. Amarius Mims (Georgia) RT – The expectation is he stays in school, but if he chooses to come out, he’s another great fit with a high ceiling. He’ll need time though, limited number of games played and an injury risk.
3. Kingsley Suamataia (BYU) LT/RT – Excellent speed, he gets to the second level in a hurry. His switch to LT this year has been bumpy, he started to get it as the season progressed. A great fit at RT now and someone who can migrate to LT as he develops his body and game.
4. Jordan Morgan (Arizona) LT/RT – The Niners value intelligent linemen and Morgan is proven there. Good speed. The question is if he can play outside or must move inside. Either way great value.
