49ers Questions for the Crystal Ball

Let’s take a look through the mist and fog.

There’s a lot of questions for the 49ers coming out of the draft. What about the offensive line? Can the Niners win a ring this year? Let’s take a look through the mist and fog.

Why no tackle in the draft?
The short answer is the 2024 draft. Better talent and if you want a Day 1 starter, they go in the 1st round. The long answer is they like Colton McKivitz and didn’t like the 2023 talent. They could have taken Blake Freeland and passed. Why? He's Mike McGlinchey 2.0, and they let Big Mike walk.

What if McKivitz bombs or gets hurt?
They can make a deal at the deadline in Week 7, possibly Taylor Moton of Carolina, 6-5/325. He’s one of the league’s better right tackles, effective in the running game and pass pro. He’s at $1 million base this year but jumps to $14.3 million in each of the next two seasons to close out his contract. The Panthers may want to form a young nucleus around Bryce Young. Moton would require a change in the 49ers cap blueprint, but he’d be cheaper than signing a starting tackle in free agency.

So who do they draft at tackle next year?
The late 1^st round potential targets at this early stage include Kingsley Suamataia (BYU) 6-6/325, Zion Nelson (Miami) 6-5/316, Jordan Morgan (Arizona) 6-6/320, Blake Fisher (Notre Dame) 6-6/335, Amarius Mims (Georgia) 6-7/330, and Jonah Monheim (USC) 6-5/295. 

I project Fisher, a Niners fit as a high character/high IQ player with strength and some nasty in the run game, good in space in pass pro, and the skills to play left tackle. He played at right tackle this year and will play there next year.

How important is the 2024 draft?
It’s vital. The Niners finally have a pick in the first round and the cupboard is packed. 11 picks again but higher up. Six original draft picks, all but the 5^th, which was part of the Christian McCaffrey trade. Five more compensatory picks, one in the 3^rd for coaching/GM losses, and four in free agency. So the final haul: 1^st, 2^nd, original 3^rd, two comp 3rds, 4^th, comp 5^th, original 6^th, two comp 6ths, original 7^th. The Niners gave a ton of draft capital for Trey Lance and CMC, the 2024 draft is when they reload.

Speaking of Lance, is he traded this summer?
Nope, not in my view. This draft was now or never for Trey. The Niners didn’t like the draft offers for Lance they’ll really love the offers in August, which drop in value after OTAs are over, and rosters are full, and teams would have to cut a QB to make room. Post-draft QB trades are exceptionally rare for this reason. In the last three years, the most they’ve retrieved is a conditional 4th, a 5th rounder, or worse.

The Niners have already shown us what they’ll do. Hang on to the QB hoping for trades above what the market is offering, let the player walk in free agency when his contract is up, and cash him in for a comp pick. 3^rd for Garoppolo, 5th or 6^th for Lance.

My final point on why no summer trade, the best way to up Trey’s value is to play him, and the best chance to win the early games is to start him. Ultimately, he stays, plays, sits, and walks. A QB goes down then a Lance deal? Not for what the Niners want back for Trey, could be Darnold instead. A deadline deal? Tough to do given his contract. Hard but not impossible. QB1? Everybody Loves Brock. My guess, Trey eventually sits and eventually walks.

More summer madness, do any UDFA’s make the roster?
I have two. Joey Fisher the toolsy offensive lineman from Shepherd and explosive running back Khalan Laborn from Marshall.  The other nine compete for the practice squad, but in my view, not the active roster. Both Fisher and Laborn have elite traits that make them too high risk for the practice squad. They could be poached.

Into the season now, can the Niners avoid the sub-500 stumble out of the gate?
Possibly, the offense remained on the rails once Christian McCaffrey arrived. However, Brock Purdy is unlikely to play early and will need time to get in game shape, the quarterback will be in transition. Kyle Shanahan starts the season as camp and ramps up. The defense will also be in transition under new coordinator Steve Wilks. The need is there to start well, another early stumble, and the NFC Championship is in Philadelphia again. The Niners need to play for January in September.

Would you favor the Eagles to return to the Super Bowl?
Yup. They lost Javon Hargrave and Chauncey Gardener-Johnson but have young players ready to step in. Philly still has the league’s best offensive and defensive lines, the NFC’s best quarterback, great weapons, and reliable corners. They upgraded at running back and most importantly at defensive coordinator. Dumping Jonathan Gannon is the ultimate in addition by subtraction.

Why do you have the Niners falling short again?
I do not believe the Kyle Shanahan formula can get through the Final Four to a championship. It’s going cheap at quarterback AND going cheap on the right side of the offensive line AND selecting them for their run blocking. I think Kyle is being a bit too sporting here. The OL doesn’t hold up to protect the quarterback, who then can’t make the plays needed to win. Kyle’s lone Niners NFC Championship win was with eight passes against Green Bay. Telling.

So according to you, there’s no chance for the Niners to win the Super Bowl?
There’s one in my view. They have to add a great right tackle that's effective in leading the running game and plays pass pro well in space. There are four chances at that. Joey Fisher develops quickly and despite his 32-inch arms emerges as an impact starting tackle. Making a trade at the deadline if McKivitz fails or gets hurt. A change in their cap blueprint where they acquire an impact right tackle in trade or free agency. I think all three are unlikely, leaving one last chance. Drafting an impact right tackle in the first round of the 2024 draft.

Some could argue Kyle won’t do that either since he devalues the position. I think he will for three reasons. He knows their best shot to stay in the cap blueprint and upgrade at right tackle is the draft. He knows the rookies capable of starting early at tackle are only available in the first. He can look at this as an investment in the future left tackle, a position he does value highly.

Then what?
Fast forward to February 9^th, 2025. Your Super Bowl Champion San Francisco 49ers. They win their 6th Lombardi in a familiar setting, the Superdome in New Orleans. Purdy is healthy and takes his game to a new level coming into the season, the Niners have a massive high-impact draft, Jason Kelce and maybe Lane Johnson retire from the 2023 Champion Eagles, and Purdy has the protection and time he needs to make the plays that win a ring.

Here's hoping.