5 Keys to Victory for 49ers vs. Titans
Despite a hiccup in Seattle, the 49ers are one of the hottest teams in the NFL with five victories in their past six games. They will look to continue that hot streak in Nashville for their only Thursday Night Football tilt of the season against the Titans. In order to secure their ninth win of the season, these are the five keys to victory for the 49ers.
1. Force the Titans to Continue Turnover Woes Without Blitzing
Ball security is always paramount in achieving victory, but the Tennessee Titans have been truly abysmal in losses when it comes to turning the ball over. The Titans have a minus-8 turnover margin for the season and a whopping minus-14 turnover margin in their five losses. And in their past three losses to the Texans, Patriots and Steelers, the Titans have a minus-13 turnover margin.
This is a team down offensive stars such as Derrick Henry, AJ Brown and Julio Jones, and it shows. While sitting at 9-5, the Titans are reeling right now, and when they lose, they really come apart at the seams. Ryan Tannehill, who has a league-leading fourteen interceptions, has struggled the most when under pressure, averaging only 4.8 yards per attempt and throwing two interceptions for every one touchdown pass. He also leads the Titans with three fumbles, while losing one.
Tannehill has performed solidly against the blitz, but has been at his worst when teams get pressure when rushing four. In the five Titans' losses, Tannehill has been sacked 4.2 times per game. With Ambry Thomas possibly starting again, and AJ Brown a possibility to return, the 49ers defense will need all the bodies they can to clog up passing lanes for Tannehill. If the 49ers want to secure a win, they'll do so by sending seven into coverage and letting Defensive Player of the Year candidate Nick Bosa and the rest of the defensive line do its damage without extra pressure.
2. Neutralize Harold Landry and Titans Pass Rush with Quick Throws
The Titans rank only 12th in the league in sacks, but sixth in the NFL in opponents' yards lost in sacks. When they get home, they really get home. Jimmy Garoppolo has been excellent in a clean pocket, but when under pressure, that's when the wheels fall off. He has been averaging his highest air yards per target when under pressure, but that's usually when bad things happen.
Harold Landry has been lights out this year, and has lined up all over the line of scrimmage, but mainly at right outside linebacker the past several weeks. Expect that to change going against Trent Williams, and for Mike Vrabel to let Landry attempt to wreak havoc against pass-blocking turnstile Tom Compton.
The Titans aren't, however, a one-man show. Jeffery Simmons has turned into a true double threat from the interior and freshly activated Bud Dupree and Denico Autry can come in waves from the outside. The 49ers win if Compton can somehow come to life, and if Kyle Shanahan dials up short throws in rhythm for Garoppolo.
3. Shanahan Needs to Trust Garoppolo
Trusting Garoppolo has been something that has been hard for Shanahan to do during Garoppolo's tenure, but he has strung together some of the best performances of his career in the past six games. When in rhythm and given time in the pocket, Garoppolo has excelled at getting the ball out quickly and spreading it all over the field.
He is never going to light it up throwing the ball outside the numbers, but has performed excellently without pressure, averaging 2.3 seconds time to throw. With Kevin Byard continuing his All-Pro play stalking the field primarily as a free safety, don't look for the 49ers to come out with any surprises and have Garoppolo push the ball downfield. However, the Titans also rank second in the league giving up 3.9 yards per carry and are tops in the league in surrendering only three 20-plus-yard runs.
In a matchup of strength against strength, nobody should doubt Shanahan. However, with Elijah Mitchell possibly still sidelined and Jeff Wilson coming off a 21-touch game on short rest, look for the Titans to stack the box and make Garoppolo hurt them. If Shanahan can trust Garoppolo to operate in rhythm, go no-huddle and keep the Titans defense on their heels, this is shaping up to be one of his best opportunities to have a signature game and continue his streak of solid if not spectacular play.
4. Unleash Brandon Aiyuk
Brandon Aiyuk started the season in Shanahan's doghouse, and he stayed in that doghouse for months. While Aiyuk primarily lines up wide on passing snaps, he reminded the league why people shouldn't doubt him against the Cardinals and Jaguars after Shanahan started giving him more opportunities in the slot.
Jimmy isn't going to throw outside the numbers, and while lining up outside doesn't exclusively relegate Aiyuk to sideline patterns, it limits his opportunities to have the ball in his hands. And getting the ball in Aiyuk's hands usually pays dividends. Since lining up in the slot more frequently, Aiyuk has seen his yards per route run skyrocket and his usage go up.
While Deebo Samuel is having an amazing season, Aiyuk has taken way fewer hits, has proven himself more than capable as a blocker, and is starving for touches. Against a Titans defense who will key in against the run and spy Samuel, this is the game in which Shanahan should design plays for Aiyuk that he's fed to Samuel all year. After touching the ball only once on offense against the Falcons, Aiyuk is primed to have a breakout game against Tennessee. If he touches the ball more than five times and gets targeted on quick hits and crossers, the 49ers will cruise to victory.
5. PLAY TREY LANCE
Can the 49ers beat the Titans without playing Lance? Absolutely. Will they beat the Titans without playing Lance? Very likely. But Lance should see the field on Thursday night.
While this would fly in the face of everything Shanahan has shown the NFL this season, according to 49ers beat writer Matt Maiocco and others, there are legitimate rumblings from players and others within the organization that Lance has been making the most of his extended opportunities in recent practices and impressing his teammates and 49ers brass.
Could this be "coach/teammate speak" coming from players such as Fred Warner and others at 4949 Centennial? Of course. But if Lance has been steadily improving behind the scenes, why not give him packages now as opposed to earlier in the season when his practice reps were even more limited? The Tennessee front is among the best the 49ers have faced all season, giving up only 43 yards rushing in their past two games. Lance would immediately make their run game more formidable by bringing play-action back to this 49ers offense and opening up lanes for the YAC Brothers to eat.
Simply put, if Lance has started to show that he's "ready," then it's time to roll the Ferrari out of the garage and take it for a spin, even if just to send a message to the rest of the NFL what this offense is truly capable of as the 49ers push for their second trip to the playoffs in the past eight seasons.
Follow David Liechty on Twitter @BackcountryFam.
