Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, Both or Neither?
Depending on how you look at Jeff Garcia, the 49ers haven’t had a pro bowl caliber franchise quarterback since 2003. For those who don’t see him as a franchise quarterback, it’s been 24 years since Steve Young retired after the 1999 season. So the 49ers haven’t had a franchise QB in 20 to 24 years, depending on how you see things.
That’s a long time.
The 49ers have started 25 quarterbacks since Steve Young and 22 since Jeff Garcia. Not one of them was, or has proven yet to be the next great franchise quarterback for the 49ers. Yet the hope and dream that either Brock Purdy or Trey Lance will become that guy is strong. So strong, in fact, that it has divided an offseason 49ers fanbase.
If you spend any time on social media in the 49ers groups and discussions, you see it everywhere. This is all that 49ers fans and media are talking about. Admittedly, you can include me in that impatient group, because I am a fan too and just like the rest of you I'm fiending to get my fix after 20 years of franchise quarterback withdrawals.
However, the unfortunate statistical reality is that neither Purdy nor Lance are the next great 49ers franchise quarterback. It’s just how it is. I hope the odds will be defied, but I have hoped that a 49ers franchise QB would emerge for more than two decades now.
Purdy showed us some great things in his eight starts, but when you consider the offense he is in, the weapons available and the play caller in his headset, you can’t give an all-knowing assessment of Purdy with such a small sample size. Especially while he’s on the mend from a UCL surgery on his throwing arm.
In Lance’s four starts, he has shown high-end talent, inexperience, and a mixed bag of amazing plays and inconsistencies. He’s also been injured twice as well and is fighting back from an gruesome ankle injury. As small as Purdy’s sample size has been, Lance’s has been even smaller, with a context of bad weather, a broken finger, unusual and questionable play-calling and an injured or Christian-McCaffrey-less 49ers roster. It’s too early to even think we know who Lance is or will become.
Both quarterbacks are young and good enough to give all 49ers fans hope, and it’s possible things work out for them, but it’s unlikely. There are four possible outcomes when it comes to Purdy and Lance and whether or not they will become franchise quarterbacks for the 49ers.
1. Both quarterbacks become franchise quarterbacks for the 49ers. This is the least likely outcome based on statistics, odds, and the track record of quarterbacks in the NFL and on the 49ers.
2. Purdy becomes a franchise quarterback for the 49ers. Despite his brilliant start (and it was remarkable), it's too early to KNOW what he will become. We need time, but odds are not likely.
3. Lance grows into his potential and emerges into the next great 49ers franchise quarterback. This is also unlikely. Despite his amazing talent and potential, he has a lot to overcome just to get his starting spot back.
4. Neither quarterback becomes a franchise quarterback for the 49ers. This outcome has the greatest probability.
I would love Option 1 -- that would be the greatest outcome for the 49ers. But I am at least hoping for Options 2 or 3. Unfortunately, I think Option 4 is the safe bet in Las Vegas. It’s just what history tells us.
Maybe we shouldn’t debate with each other about Purdy vs. Lance. Maybe we should call for the 49ers to end this 20-24 year drought of elite QB play and make something happen. I want to see what Purdy can do after he returns. Was it fool’s gold? I need to see. I want to see what Lance can become. He has tremendous up-side. I want to see it play out. I want to see everything play out for both quarterbacks because even if it’s not likely one of them is the next Joe Montana or Steve Young, it's possible.
Kyle Shanahan is a good coach. I rank him between 6th-8th in the NFL. I give him a B-plus grade as a coach, for now. If he wants to get an A-plus, he needs to deliver a franchise quarterback to the 49ers, and/or win a Super Bowl.
Finding a franchise quarterback isn’t easy and winning a Super Bowl is even harder, but that’s the standard Bill Walsh, Joe Montana, Steve Young and Eddie DeBartolo Jr. set here. It’s their standard.
It’s the 49ers standard. As a fan, this is my standard as well. Before you tear another 49ers fan down because of their view on the quarterback situation, consider that for all we know, we could be debating about the next Tim Rattay or Ken Dorsey.
