Extending Colton McKivitz is a Mistake
The 49ers have extended the contract of starting right tackle Colton McKivitz, they will pay him $7 million in 2025, 65% of it guaranteed.
McKivitz is optimizing his talent, he improved over the season, and the Niners maintain continuity on the line, so what’s the problem?
Ignoring the draft and the future
First, they repeat a costly mistake from the past, ignoring when the draft provides exceptional quality. This occurred during two cap management drafts where players were picked to replace veterans who asked for over-budget money.
They traded DeForest Buckner, then dealt the pick that was used on Tristan Wirfs and took Javon Kinlaw. Traded Trent Brown then used their first-round pick on Mike McGlinchey to replace him when Derwin James and Minkah Fitzpatrick were on the board.
Add Wirfs and James, does this current team have a ring? Or two? These draft mistakes carry a serious price. And yes, I was pounding the table for those players when the Niners whiffed.
Now on to the 2024 draft, with as many as six tackles graded at All-Pro or Pro Bowl ability: Joe Alt, Taliese Fuaga, Amarius Mims, Olu Fashanu, C.J Latham, and Troy Fautanu. A single draft having the talent and depth of six Day 1 starting tackles is exceptionally rare.
Now it makes no sense to trade into the late teens to early 20s for a Day 1 starter after giving McKivitz starter money. It would also fall outside of cap strategy and history for Kyle Shanahan to invest money at right tackle and then deal up for a high draft pick at the same position.
This doesn’t eliminate taking other tackles after pick 24 in the draft, but none of them are projected as Day 1 starters and are likely redshirts who lack the upside of the players the Niners effectively just passed on. Players that would be a high-impact replacement for Trent Williams at left tackle in 2026.
Which then leads to the second problem, a focus solely on the now. This draft has players who could truly step in for Williams down the road. Extending McKivitz likely takes those players out of the equation. An opportunity like this does not come annually.
So what does this mean?
At offensive line in the draft, a shift in focus to center. The Niners had a formal interview with Duke’s Graham Barton at the Combine. The widespread consensus is Barton’s best position in the NFL is at center, even though he can play all three positions on the line.
Barton is the 2nd ranked center in the class behind Oregon’s Jackson Powers-Johnson, expected to go by the early 20s. Barton is projected from the mid-20s to the Niners pick at 31.
The 3rd ranked center is West Virginia’s Zach Frazier projected for late 1st to early 2nd. The Niners also met with UConn’s Christian Haynes prior to Indianapolis, a system fit guard who played well in center reps at the Senior Bowl. Haynes is expected to be taken in the late 2nd round.
The pick that seems inevitable in the first round is edge. Once again cap management can interfere in the draft as the Niners chose to manage their investment at the defensive line by avoiding free agency and adding a much cheaper draft pick. That can lead to Penn State’s Chop Robinson, a fast and twitchy edge from the school that produced Micah Parsons.
The same money-first thinking could lead to defensive tackle where Jer’Zhan Newton of Illinois or inside-outside defensive lineman Darius Robinson of Missouri could be the pick.
Another option could be defensive back. There are no viable options in free agency, there is a need for an outside corner who can cover and defend the run, and the draft provides that skill set in Ennis Rakestraw Jr. of Missouri and Cooper DeJean of Iowa.
A final possibility is to tap into this draft’s loaded wide receiver class.
The larger point is, by not targeting a move up for an impact tackle, the Niners can look at the best available in the late first round, and keep their 2nd-round pick at 63.
The team thought they had two third round picks at 94 and 98 but the Jimmy Garoppolo compensatry pick was devalued to a 4th and that may have had an influence on the decision to not move up and extend McKivitz.
The long-term question will be if choosing versatility with the first pick and volume in the draft can match the impact of a Day 1 starting right tackle that takes over for Williams in two years.
This extension for McKivitz returns the Niners to my initial thoughts on this draft: Graham Barton or Chop Robinson. Either one requires a small move up from 31.
