Four Questions: 49ers Roster Moves and the Draft
After a disheartening loss in the Super Bowl, the 49ers focus on returning to next year’s title game in New Orleans. Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch face a challenging task: hold on to Brandon Aiyuk, make room for Brock Purdy’s extension after next season, add a defensive starter in free agency, and keep their core together.
1. Can they do all that?
Yes, according to cap guru Jason Hurley of 49erscap.com. He says there’s no need to move on from impact veterans, the Niners can create the room to get everything done.
Hurley starts by restructuring Deebo Samuel’s contract to create $15.8 million in cap room. He projects Aiyuk will sign an extension of around $25 million per year with a big signing bonus on a backloaded deal to save another $7 million.
A Purdy extension will depend on his performance next season, with a deal projected around $50-55 million per year. A long-term contract and a huge signing bonus would keep his cap number down for the first three years of the deal.
That leaves one big swing in free agency. Hurley estimates that would be in the $12-14 million range. However, there are reports that the salary cap currently projected at $242 million may end up closer to $250 million.
The NFL wants to smooth the cap’s progression and avoid big spikes in a season, so the cap is subject to ongoing negotiations with the Players Association. The bump up from $242 million can be added to what the 49ers could use to target a free agent. At a $250 million cap, the theoretical target ceiling rises to a max of $20-22 million.
2. What should the Niners do in free agency?
Smart roster management accounts for what the draft does and doesn’t provide. This year the draft has great quality at offensive line, so it’s better and cheaper to draft OL help than sign it.
High-impact free agents are available at edge and defensive back, but the Niners may be priced out at the top of the market. Brian Burns is asking for $27-28 million per year, and Carolina has offered him $23 million per.
Danielle Hunter signed a one-year deal for $20 million last year including $3 million in incentives, that’s his market value this year according to Spotrac.
Hunter will be one of the top-ten free agents on the market and the third-ranked edge behind Burns and Josh Allen. Pro Football Focus projects Hunter will receive a 3-year deal at $65 million, which is likely beyond what the Niners can spend.
At defensive back, Jaylon Johnson is expected to be franchise-tagged by Chicago. The Bears have the tag available after extending Montez Sweat.
Realistic targets for the Niners in free agency at their likely spending range include bringing back Azeez Al-Shaair to step in for Dre Greenlaw. His market value would be around $12 million. Oren Burks gave up a quarterback rating of 134.7 in the Super Bowl, the Niners need a higher-quality replacement.
Rookie Jalen Graham could earn the spot, but that’s a big risk for the Niners to take. If Graham failed, plan B would be another rookie Dee Winters. With Al-Shaair, the team would know precisely what they are getting and that he fits the scheme and culture.
The realistic option at edge is under the radar but highly productive 26-year-old Jonathan Greenard of Houston. He had 13 sacks and 22 quarterback hits this season, and was 10th in pass rush win rate.
If Houston tags him that gets expensive. He’s unrestricted and will receive offers of around $15 million per. He'll be the Texans' top priority to re-sign so it won’t be easy, but Greenard is the best edge the Niners could realistically pursue who is in his prime.
3. Should the Niners re-sign Chase Young or consider signing Joey Bosa?
I would let Young go. His likely market rate is outside what the Niners can afford.
The Chargers are expected to release Joey Bosa, he has nine sacks in the last two seasons playing only 14 games. The Niners likely pass given his history of limited availability.
4. Will the 49ers finally select an offensive lineman with their first-round pick?
Their board will drive it, I break it down this way. There are six impact offensive tackles in the first round, the last two may drop to 31 but more likely go in the 20s, Amarius Mims of Georgia and Tyler Guyton of Oklahoma. If one drops to 26, I would offer Tampa Bay 31 and 98 (The Niners’ second 3rd-round pick) to move up. I am highest on Mims but he does come with an injury risk.
If both tackles are gone then the offensive line targets shift inside with Graham Barton of Duke and tackle/guard hybrid Troy Fautanu of UW. Barton is expected to fall to 31, Fautanu may go earlier. I could see them taking Barton, a versatile system fit.
Ultimately it’s whether the Niners have an edge, corner, or linebacker ranked higher. Free agency should take care of linebacker or edge. I would take a corner, it's now or never at 31 for physical athletic corners that can play the run and cover. It’s a significant tier drop to the Niners' next pick at 63.
If I had to put money down though, it’s the 49ers, they take a DL with their first pick and The Faithful fume. The annual rite of spring.
Here’s hoping the Niners surprise us.
