Game Preview: 49ers at Rams

The 1-0 49ers are 8-point favorites traveling to their summer home in Inglewood where Vivid Seats project that the crowd will be at least 64/36 Niners fans. SoFi, SoVi’s, Levi’s South, call it what you will, the Niners are likely to call it a win as they have won eight straight regular-season games against the Rams.

What LA wants: A shootout, a passing duel where they can bank on quarterback Matthew Stafford pulling out the upset in a 'whoever has it last wins' game. On defense, they’ll hope that Aaron Donald and the pass rush can apply pressure to take Brock Purdy out of rhythm, disrupt the timing of the 49ers’ offense, and generate some turnovers.

What the Niners want: A physical battle where they wear the Rams down on both ends, a pullaway game forcing the Rams to come from behind and throw. On defense, the Niner line pins their ears back and attacks, looking to collapse the interior pocket to pressure Stafford into mistakes.

Familiar Ground
The rosters, schemes, and coaching staffs have continuity over the years, both teams know what the other wants to do, as well as their strengths and weaknesses. Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Matt Canada needed 28 minutes to figure out the Niners' weak points on defense. Rams head coach Sean McVay will throw at the Niners DB not named Ward or Lenoir on the first play.

What’s new in LA
Matthew Stafford is back to his 2021 form, sharp in last week’s win in Seattle. Cooper Kupp is on IR and the Rams turned to a pair of unknown receivers who caught passes for 119 yards each last week, speedster Tutu Atwell, and 7th-round BYU rookie Puka Nacua who lines up all over the field.

Kyle Shanahan compares Nacua to the Niners' Jauan Jennings, playing with physicality to win at the catch point. Nacua was held out of practice on Thursday with an oblique injury, but is expected to play Sunday.

2nd-round rookie Steve Avila from TCU is the starting left guard and had a clean sheet against the Seahawks, not allowing any pressures, hits, or sacks.

X-Factor
Rookie linebacker Byron Young out of Tennessee had half a sack and two quarterback hits in Seattle. Young brings speed off the edge; he runs a 4.43 40.

Last Week
The Rams were down 13-7 at halftime and then scored 23 unanswered as the Seahawks lost both starting offensive tackles and melted. LA had 20 pressures, but that was helped by the Hawks' makeshift line.

The Rams offensive line struggled in the running game. Facing one of the weakest run defenses in the league, their backs only averaged 2.2 yards on 37 carries. The line was solid in pass protection, only giving up five pressures and no sacks. Context needs to be applied though, the Niners front four is far more physical and talented than the Seattle D line.

Stafford was 24-38 for 338 yards, having a clean pocket on 87% of his dropbacks. The Niners will hope to cut that down to the 60s or lower.

The key stat
The Rams' conversion percentage on 3rd down. Against Seattle, they led the league in converting 89% of their third down attempts. The best way to take Stafford out of a rhythm is pressure to create stops on 3rd.

The Niners on offense
Job 1 is containing Aaron Donald, still one of the league’s most disruptive forces. Shanahan game plans to stop him, Donald hasn't had a sack against the Niners since 2020. The Niners' offensive line will also need to keep an eye on Byron Young.

After that, establish the run and pick on a weak secondary. Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel have mismatches facing second-year corners Derion Kendrick and Cobie Durant.

The last time the Niners visited SoFi in a 31-14 win, Christian McCaffrey ran, caught, and threw for a touchdown on 183 yards of total offense. On the ground, he had 18 carries for 94 yards. The Niners will feature McCaffrey again, and the Rams' run defense was mediocre in Seattle. Kenneth Walker III had 12 carries for 64 yards, a 4.5-yard average.

The Niners on defense
Stafford's return to 2021 form may have caught the league by surprise. He benefited from a clean pocket and the Niners will go with release the hounds again this week, sending the front four. As a relatively immobile quarterback, Stafford relies on stepping up in the pocket to throw, cratering the pocket can be key to taking him out of his game. If Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave come close to last week’s performance, Stafford will struggle.

There’s not much McVay can do in the running game, so passing will have to carry them. The Rams will target the Niners DB3 and go with quick throws to offset the pass rush. Tight end Tyler Higbee had 10 catches in the Niners game at Levi’s last year, and had 49 yards receiving last week in Seattle, including a 30-yarder.

Prediction (Record 1-0)
The Rams don’t have enough to limit McCaffrey in the running game or to stop Aiyuk and Deebo in the passing game. So it comes down to the offensive line giving Purdy enough time to operate. They should do a solid job limiting Donald, but they need to not overlook Young. I think the Niners build a lead, the Rams have to throw, and then Stafford will face too much pressure. The Niners finish it by running out the clock and the game gets out of reach.

The Niners will have plenty of motive to rest starters early with the next game on short rest Thursday night at home against the New York Giants.

San Francisco 34 Los Angeles 17

Quick NFC note. Green Bay at Atlanta seems innocuous, it’s just Week 2, but this game could ultimately decide the final wild card via the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Falcons need to contain Jordan Love and their best chance may be playing keep away with Bijan Robinson. The Packers were 26th against the run last year.