Game Preview: Cincinnati Bengals at 49ers

On injuries, Brock Purdy is in the final stage of concussion recovery and practiced Thursday. If Purdy passes the concussion protocol he will play. Shanahan rarely holds out players coming off injury who say they can go.

With two straight losses and facing injury concerns, the 49ers are reeling as they host the well-rested Cincinnati Bengals coming off a bye week.

The teams met in Cincinnati in 2021 with the Niners winning 26-23 in overtime. Joe Burrow threw for 348 yards, nearly 200 to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Niners defense hung on for the win thanks to five sacks and two fumble recoveries.

Since then, the Cincinnati offensive line has improved while the Niner pass rush has regressed, tied for 18th in the league in sacks.

On injuries, Brock Purdy is in the final stage of concussion recovery and practiced Thursday. If Purdy passes the concussion protocol he will play. Shanahan rarely holds out players coming off injury who say they can go.

Deebo Samuel is out. Trent Williams is expected to play but hasn’t practiced this week.

WHAT’S AT STAKE

Niners – The team’s chances at the No. 1 seed turn slim with a loss. They face five games against likely playoff teams in their final eight. Those opponents have a collective record of 24-9.

Losing three straight games into the bye will have the team and the coaching staff questioning themselves.

Bengals – This is close to a must-win game. With a loss, the Bengals would likely fall two games behind Baltimore in the division, and the Ravens already beat Cincinnati this year.

Beyond the standings, Cincinnati is looking at this game as a test of whether they are a contender. Burrow says he’s fully healthy, the Bengals have won two straight, and have been an excellent post-bye team recently, so as Burrow put it, “we’ll find out a lot about ourselves on Sunday.”

WHEN CINCINNATI HAS THE BALL

A test of Burrow’s health will be his success throwing ten yards or more. He’s only completed 32% of those throws this year, including a league-high four picks. If Burrow starts hitting those passes, the Bengals revert to the contender of the past three years. Now that he’s fully healthy, that becomes more likely.

The Bengals bye week came at precisely the right moment for them, and the worst for San Francisco.

Ja’Marr Chase has averaged ten catches a game in his last four, including 15 catches for 192 yards and three touchdowns against Arizona. Tee Higgins has been an afterthought in the offense, catching only two passes in each of his last three games. If Burrow connects on passes over ten yards that’s a game-changer for Higgins.

The Bengals' running game is a weakness, they rank 26th in yards per carry at 3.5. Joe Mixon is averaging 16 carries for 61 yards per game. On the season he only has one touchdown and a long run of 22.

The key to the game for the Niners is limiting the Cincinnati passing attack. The 49ers defense ranks 21st in the league in average yards per game given up to wide receivers.

While the San Francisco defensive line is second in pressures and fifth in hurries, the lack of sacks leads to getting beat on third down. The Niners are 20th in third down conversion rate against and 21st in average plays per drive against. They aren’t getting off the field.

MATCHUP

Ja’Marr Chase vs. Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir – For Ward and Lenoir this is their first game of the season against one of the league’s best receivers. Chase has owned Ward in the past.  Chase will get his and more in this game, particularly if the 49ers pass rush continues to struggle.

WHEN THE NINERS HAVE THE BALL

Without Trent Williams last week the running game went nowhere. Williams should play but his not practicing this week is a sign that his ankle is still a problem.

Cincinnati has one of the league’s worst run defenses, 30th in the league in yards per carry against at 5.0. Normally that alone can win the game for the 49ers, but with Williams not close to 100%, the running game is a question mark.

In the passing game, with Deebo Samuel out, McCaffrey needs to be used more frequently as a receiver.

MATCHUP

Trent Williams vs. Trey Hendrickson – Williams should succeed in pass protection, but the running game on a bad ankle is a concern.

STAT OF THE GAME

Burrow’s efficiency on passes of ten yards or more. That’s the game.

PREDICTION (MY RECORD 5-2)

I expect McCaffrey to tie Lenny Moore’s NFL record with a touchdown in 17 straight games. The offense should return to efficiency with solid drives that succeed in the early downs to avoid third and long. In the running game with a hobbled Williams, I think they’ll be sporadic with 3-5 yard gains and pop a few chunk plays. 

Burrow has had the bye to rest and get fully healthy. I think we’ll see the Burrow we’re accustomed to, which means Chase and possibly Higgins get big numbers against a Niners defense that can’t get sacks and is beat downfield. If the Niners can get to Burrow that changes everything.

I think Cincinnati eventually takes the lead and the Niners offense can’t come from behind. Ultimately this game is on the Niner defense to win or lose. They have to get the stops on 3rd and fail. I think they'll get beat by Chase and lose a tight one.

Bengals 27 Niners 24