Game Preview: Seattle Seahawks at 49ers
Now with a chance at the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs, the 49ers look to win out over their final five games, starting with a rematch against the Seahawks at home. The Niners are favored by 13 points as Seattle quarterback Geno Smith is a game-time decision with a groin injury.
After an emotional win over Philadelphia, the 49ers focus will be tested against a reeling Seattle team that’s lost three straight games.
Injuries
Pete Carroll says Smith tweaked his groin while stumbling over a player in Friday’s practice. If Smith can’t go, Drew Lock steps in. His last start was for Denver in 2021 going 12-24 for 162 yards and no touchdowns, along with four carries for 35 yards, led by a 23-yard run.
Seattle running backs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet participated in the full practice Friday and “looked pretty good” according to Carroll. Linebacker Jordyn Brooks is questionable.
For the Niners, Arik Armstead, Ray-Ray McCloud, and Ross Dwelley are out, with Spencer Burford, Elijah Mitchell, and Darrell Luter Jr. listed as doubtful.
WHEN SEATTLE HAS THE BALL
With the Seahawks' season on the line, Smith likely plays. His risk of further injuring his groin is lessened by a dry field and no rain on game day.
The Hawks offense got a huge boost when right tackle Abe Lucas returned last week for the first time since he was injured in the opener. Lucas had an instant impact as the dangerous Dallas pass rush had no sacks against Smith.
With a clean pocket and time to throw, Smith put up 35 points against the Cowboys. D.K. Metcalf had a big day, catching six passes for 134 yards and three touchdowns. Metcalf will be looking for payback after Charvarius Ward shut him down two weeks ago. With Lucas back, Smith should have the time to take some shots and test the Niner corners deep.
The Seattle running game hasn’t had much success against the Niners defense in the last two seasons, typically around 45-65 yards a game for the feature back. With Arik Armstead out look for Seattle to test the Niners' run defense inside. The Seahawks can turn to screens and check downs to the backs with success, particularly with all the attention drawn by their trio of receivers.
Smith can be pressured into mistakes when the pocket collapses. He can throw picks when he can’t set his feet, Smith lacks pocket awareness and can be vulnerable to strip sacks.
WHEN THE NINERS HAVE THE BALL
In his three games as a Niner against Seattle, Christian McCaffrey has averaged 113.7 yards per game rushing with over 140 yards of total offense. McCaffrey is a difficult matchup for the Seattle linebackers, who may miss one of their best if Brooks can’t play.
Brock Purdy struggled in the game against the Seahawks two weeks ago, throwing a pick-six. Seattle presents a challenge with the best young cornerback duo in the league in Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon. Where Purdy excelled against Philadelphia applies in this game as well, stay patient and take what the defense gives you.
George Kittle mentioned this week that he loves this week’s game plan by Kyle Shanahan in how it sets up the 49er weapons in space. Great news for Kittle and Deebo Samuel, coming off his hat trick against the Eagles.
In past matchups against the Seahawks, Brandon Aiyuk has contributed with chunk plays rather than a steady volume of receptions. In the Thanksgiving game, Aiyuk separated from Witherspoon and caught a spectacular touchdown on a no-no-no-yes! throw from Purdy through multiple defenders.
STAT OF THE GAME
Niners YAC yardage, weapons in space for the win. This should be a repeat of what worked against Philadelphia, try to optimize McCaffrey and Deebo for at least 110 yards of total offense each.
PREDICTION (My record 8-4)
I mistakenly thought Philadelphia could run on the Niners, they couldn’t and then abandoned it too early. Hence 8-4. I need to show more trust and will going forward, I’m sold on this team and how they play for each other.
As I said on YouTube with The Coach on Friday, the mark of this team is playing their best against the best. That’s what a team does in its championship year.
Seattle is in free fall, the Niners need to play to their standard and avoid playing down to their competition. Now that the Niners are guaranteed the 1 or 2 seed if they win out, I expect a focused effort the rest of the way.
San Francisco has the tiebreaker against all the NFC contenders. They either need to get the No. 1 seed through help from Dallas at home Sunday night against Philly or lock up the No. 2 seed before the final game against the Rams so the Niners can rest their starters. The key isn’t the 1 seed though it’s ideal, the critical aspect is rest.
The first step in making that happen is to take care of the Seahawks and it should be a repeat gameplan from Philly - optimize McCaffrey and Deebo on offense, turn the game one-dimensional on defense.
49ers 31 Seattle 20
