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Is Raheem Mostert a Product of the 49ers System?

The 49ers have refused to give Raheem Mostert a raise. They seem to think he's a product of head coach Kyle Shanahan's system. Are they right?
Grant Cohn|
Is Raheem Mostert a Product of the 49ers System?
Is Raheem Mostert a Product of the 49ers System?

The 49ers have refused to pay Raheem Mostert a running back’s salary. They seem to think he’s a replaceable product of their system, even though he scored 15 touchdowns and led all NFL running backs in yards per carry last season.

Are the 49ers right? Is Mostert a mere system running back? And how can we tell?

The NFL Network’s Brian Baldinger tweeted a fascinating stat -- running backs with the most combined “explosive” plays in 2019 (“explosive” meaning runs or catches that gained 20 or more yards).

This stat should show who the best running backs in the league are. Because while a coach or an offensive line can create holes and make four, five, maybe six yards of running room, special running backs turn those opportunities into long gains and touchdowns.

The running backs with the most explosive plays last season, including the playoffs, were Derrick Henry (16), Nick Chubb (15), Saquon Barkley (14), Dalvin Cook (14), Christian McCaffrey (13). Most people would consider those five running backs the best five in the NFL.

Which brings us to Mostert.

Mostert had nine explosive plays last season, including the playoffs. But he touched the ball only 207 times. Henry, the league leader in explosive plays, touched the ball a whopping 409 times. Meaning Henry had an explosive play once every 25.6 touches -- excellent -- while Mostert had one once every 23 touches. Advantage: Mostert.

By Baldinger’s standards, Mostert is no system back -- he’s a special running back, arguably top five in the entire league.

When you take a close look at Mostert’s numbers from last season, he’s even more impressive. He scored 12 touchdowns after Week Freaking 10. George Kittle, the best player on the team, has scored 12 touchdowns in his career.

Mostert scored a touchdown once every 13.8 times he got the ball in 2019. And he wasn’t a goal-line running back. Only eight of his 207 touches were inside the opponent’s 10-yard line last season. Both Tevin Coleman and Jeff Wilson Jr. received more touches in that area of the field.

Usually, running backs who score lots of touchdowns receive tons of goal-line carries. But Mostert’s touchdowns averaged 18.8 yards per play. He usually scored from very very far out.

Which other running back in the NFL scores from far out so frequently?

No one.

Of course, Kyle Shanahan certainly deserves major credit for Mostert’s success. Lots of running backs have played well in Shanahan’s system throughout the years. But in 12 seasons as an offensive coordinator or a head coach, Shanahan’s offenses have ranked in the top half of the NFL in scoring just four times: 2009, 2012, 2016 and 2019.

Shanahan historically has been much better at generating yards than points. He needs a player who converts touches into touchdowns at a high rate.

That’s Mostert.

Get over yourself, Kyle. Give Mostert an extra $2.5 million in 2020. You two need each other. You make each other better.

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Grant Cohn
GRANT COHN

Grant Cohn has covered the San Francisco 49ers daily since 2011. He spent the first nine years of his career with the Santa Rosa Press Democrat where he wrote the Inside the 49ers blog and covered famous coaches and athletes such as Jim Harbaugh, Colin Kaepernick and Patrick Willis. In 2012, Inside the 49ers won Sports Blog of the Year from the Peninsula Press Club. In 2020, Cohn joined FanNation and began writing All49ers. In addition, he created a YouTube channel which has become the go-to place on YouTube to consume 49ers content. Cohn's channel typically generates roughly 3.5 million viewers per month, while the 49ers' official YouTube channel generates roughly 1.5 million viewers per month. Cohn live streams almost every day and posts videos hourly during the football season. Cohn is committed to asking the questions that 49ers fans want answered, and providing the most honest and interactive coverage in the country. His loyalty is to the reader and the viewer, not the team or any player or coach. Cohn is a new-age multimedia journalist with an old-school mentality, because his father is Lowell Cohn, the legendary sports columnist for the San Francisco Chronicle from 1979 to 1993. The two have a live podcast every Tuesday. Grant Cohn grew up in Oakland and studied English Literature at UCLA from 2006 to 2010. He currently lives in Oakland with his wife.

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