Leadership and The Blueprint in the 49ers Quest for Six
In this story:
49ers CEO Jed York noted at the NFL Annual Meeting that he was happy to be “in the mix.” Kyle Shanahan has proven he can get to the NFL’s final four consistently, leading the Niners to two NFC Championship Games and the Super Bowl in four years.
Will “in the mix” be the prelude to a title or the epitaph of an era?
The blueprint
Shanahan has chosen to swim against conventional wisdom, rolling with a cheap system processor at quarterback and cap savings on 4/5ths of the offensive line to finance a loaded roster everywhere else. To date, the three “in the mix” defeats have included quarterback and offensive line as key reasons why.
There is reason for optimism entering 2023. The Niners have their best quarterback in years in Brock Purdy if he returns to form, added all-world defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, and discovered as of last year that ball skills are handy if you want interceptions.
Can the Shanahan blueprint win a ring in the next two years?
History notes that three-fourths of the Super Bowls have been won by Hall of Famers or likely HOF quarterbacks. With the AFC so stacked at quarterback, facing a future Hall of Famer is very likely at the next Super Bowl in Las Vegas. Based on the quarterbacks alone, history gives the Niners a 25 percent chance.
Negative factors that take that number lower include injuries. The Niners have been one of the ten most injured teams in the league every year that Shanahan has coached per Football Outsiders.
The offensive line is overmatched in big games against the league’s best. Kansas City’s Chris Jones had two sacks and a forced fumble in the regular season game against the Niners. Philadelphia had 16 pressures in the NFC Championship with Aaron Banks having a pass protection rating of zero and Spencer Burford 26. The arrival of redshirts Nick Zakelj and Jason Poe should help, along with free agent signing Jon Feliciano, and an expected two or three offensive line picks in the draft.
Colton McKivitz is the starter at right tackle as the Niners cap strategy limits their options. A trade up in the draft is unlikely to reach the top six tackles expected to start on Day 1. The Niners may have to wait until they can use their first-round pick in the 2024 draft to get an impact starter at a cap friendly price. When that does happen, it can be transformative. The Niners ring chances in 2024 should be substantively higher as a result.
Until then, the cap strategy limits what they can do on the field. Shanahan can get the 49ers in the mix, but winning a title requires threading the team execution through a tiny margin for error. That needle should grow substantively in 2024 through a right tackle addition.
The upcoming draft will also play a role as the team is in position to draft players capable of starting on the offensive line by 2024. It will be interesting to see what the team decides to invest in, pass protection at center and guard to block Chris Jones, and the Eagles front. A quick lead blocker in the running game at tackle to enable the Niners to run right effectively. This year the draft picks on the line may not be ready to start, but 2024 is the golden year when the entire team must be ready.
One note on being in the mix. While getting there means you have a title opportunity, volume doesn’t change the odds. Probability theory tells us that the odds a pair of dice will roll snake eyes is the same on the first roll as the millionth. The dice have no memory.
What changes the odds for the Niners is to learn from past mistakes and adjust, which is not a strength of Shanahan. The cap strategy is the same, the margin for error remains low, the injuries remain high, the offensive line can’t be addressed in a meaningful way at right tackle due to the cap. Another appearance in the NFL final four can bring hope, but the odds remain low. For now.
Leadership: The wrong mountaintops
In studying for my MBA, yes that’s where my insufferable know-it-all attitude comes from, I had a professor we called The Monk. His sayings were riddles but they made sense. I recall one that applies to the Niners.
“To know an organization, look at the mountaintops of its leaders. If their summit is affirmation, a tree becomes their forest.”
Jed York: Affirmation of his role and success. His tree is optimizing Levi’s Stadium financially, making it a capital of sports on the west coast. A title elevates his status, but in the mix keeps his tree growing. A shift to ring or else puts his tree at risk. As demonstrated by the Rams getting a ring but then falling off a cliff.
Kyle Shanahan: Affirmation of his play design genius through his system becoming more important than any one player. His tree is to prove his system doesn’t need Patrick Mahomes, he just needs the latest from Intel, doing precisely what he programs it to do when.
John Lynch: Affirmation that what won his ring is timeless. His tree is that the foundation of championship football is a dominant front four defensive line.
Contrast that with the leaders of the past. Eddie DeBartolo: ring or else. Bill Walsh: ring or else. John McVay and Carmen Policy: ring or else. Five rings by holding themselves and the players accountable, a shared focus on the actual forest. Together they wrote the 49ers Standard, which was built on rings.
The Faithful and the 49ers organization are split generationally. Those who lived through a championship are ring or else. That’s true of older fans and the epic run, personified by Eddie DeBartolo, King Ring Or Else. The younger generation is fine with consistent contention, being in the mix, as represented by the current 49ers braintrust.
That braintrust say they are ring or else, but their actions say in the mix as the team enters Year 28 of the Quest for Six.
