Playoff Preview: Who Will the 49ers Play?
When the Miami Dolphins lost to Buffalo, they couldn’t have anticipated that switching a home playoff game for the road would mean an 80-degree drop in temperature. From 76 in Miami to a 50% chance of snow and a high of -4 in Kansas City on Saturday night.
Don’t worry Miami, no one will be watching, we’re not paying for Peacock.
AFC
If the Niners had a wish list of who they’d like to see come out of the AFC for the Super Bowl I’m guessing it would be Pittsburgh, Houston, or Miami. So much for that.
Cleveland at Houston
The Browns won 36-22 three weeks ago, but that was with C.J. Stroud out. Even with Stroud this time around, Houston faces the league’s best defense ready to pressure Stroud and shut his receivers down.
The Texans' lack of balance with a weak running game will hurt them if Joe Flacco has success early for Cleveland and Houston turns too predictable. Flacco is hot and burned this defense recently, he builds a lead and then the Browns front four closes the game out.
Prediction: Cleveland.
Miami at Kansas City
The danger of building a team on speed is if you don’t secure the home field you can play a snow globe game and your edge is gone. When the Dolphins turn into the Penguins they do not fare well, they’ve lost nine straight when the temperature at game time is under 40.
The problem for them is that snow games are won in the trenches favoring the Chiefs, plus Mahomes vs. Tua, and Miami gives up the most yards per carry in the league.
Prediction: Kansas City.
Pittsburgh at Buffalo
Mason Rudolph vs. Josh Allen, T.J. Watt is out, and Buffalo has won five straight.
Prediction: Buffalo.
Potential divisional round: Kansas City at Buffalo, Cleveland at Baltimore.
NFC
The 49ers will play who wins from this order: Green Bay, the Rams, Philadelphia, and then Tampa Bay. Unlike in the AFC, all three of these games are tossups.
Green Bay at Dallas
Mike McCarthy could be coaching for his job, lose and Jerry Jones may let him go, particularly given the quality of available head coaches this time around.
Dallas is undefeated at home this year while the Packers have won six of their last eight.
Jordan Love has played exceptionally well over that stretch, completing 70% of his passes for 269 yards per game with 18 touchdowns and just one interception. If he can avoid turnovers, that takes away a key element for Dallas. The Cowboys are tied for 5th in the league in turnover differential and 8th in interceptions.
Stephon Gilmore will play for Dallas coming off an injury where his shoulder popped out in the season finale against Washington.
What can win the game for Green Bay is their balance on offense. Aaron Jones has run for nearly 120 yards per game over the last three and is finally healthy, averaging a dominant 5.7 yards per carry.
Jones has been injured for so long that he's flown under the radar, but he could be the difference in this game.
Green Bay has vulnerabilities on defense, no ball skills in the secondary, is 31st in interceptions and 28th in rushing yards against.
Both teams can run and pass, neither team can stop the run, and neither team should get interceptions. In the Detroit-Dallas game, interceptions won the game for the Cowboys picking off Jared Goff twice. The Lions gave up 227 yards to CeeDee Lamb and still should have won.
So if Love protects the ball, this game ultimately comes down to which QB-RB combo is better, Love and Jones or Prescott and Tony Pollard?
Prediction: Green Bay in the upset.
LA Rams at Detroit
Now that all of their weapons are healthy, the Rams have had the league’s best offense in the final month and won seven of their last eight.
Matthew Stafford will carve up the Lions' vulnerable secondary, but Aidan Hutchinson can also get to Stafford and force turnovers. The question is if the Lions offensive line can protect Goff and if he can protect the ball. If he does Detroit wins, if not it's which defense makes the critical stop. C.J. Gardner-Johnson is back healthy now for Detroit. The Lions should have beaten Dallas, and the Rams squeaked past the Giants 26-25.
I favor the talented young ascending team over the veteran club in sunset that peaked a few years ago. Add Detroit's first playoff game at Ford Field, a fired-up crowd fueling them, a team that knows the refs screwed them in Dallas, and I take the Lions riding that emotion and a key Stafford pick to the win.
Prediction: Detroit.
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
Tampa sleepwalked past Carolina 9-0 to win the NFC South as Baker Mayfield played with sore ribs, sprained his ankle, and had his worst game of the season.
Philadelphia was a dumpster fire with the hapless Giants as the arsonist, losing 27-10.
Inserted Eagles defensive coordinator Matt Patricia was so desperate for anyone with a pulse at linebacker that he dropped Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat into coverage, where both blew assignments and were beaten badly.
This game comes down to whether Mayfield is healthy enough to light up the Philly secondary with Darius Slay hurt and Sydney Brown out. The Eagles won the regular season matchup by running all over the Bucs 25-11. That should be their game plan in this one and gives the Eagles a legit shot.
Philadelphia can recover and win this if Mayfield plays as lethargically as he did last week. But if he is back to health, the Eagles back seven is so weak that Mayfield can beat them downfield consistently and get the win. Not playing until Monday should help Mayfield recover.
Prediction: Tampa Bay.
Potential divisional round: Green Bay at San Francisco, Tampa Bay at Detroit.
