Predicting the 49ers Choices in Free Agency and the Draft
For the past few years, the 49ers have hiked on a well-worn trail that leads to a great view of the Super Bowl. The loop has a steep alternate path they avoid, a risk/reward trail that might lead to a championship. Will the Niners get adventurous this year and address the difficult matchups against Philadelphia and Kansas City needed to win the Super Bowl?
First, the QB talk. Green Bay would never trade Aaron Rodgers to the 49ers, and Tom Brady has put his daughter’s kitten’s paw down on returning. Acquiring Lamar Jackson only works if the Niners spend far more than their traditional 15 percent of the cap on the offensive line. Otherwise, history predicts Jackson is hurt before the playoffs. Should they change and make the necessary investment at QB and OL? Yes, but that’s the steep path they don’t take. The Niner cap strategy is poured in cement.
This breakdown predicts what the Niners will do at each position of need this offseason and gives alternate options to address the potential matchups against Philly and KC.
CENTER
Expectation: Re-sign Jake Brendel if the price is reasonable. Houston released its center, so former 49ers coach and new Texans Offensive Coordinator Bobby Slowik will target Brendel, and the Jets may also be interested. It may take over $4 million per to keep Brendel and the number of years could be key. Redshirts Nick Zakelj and Jason Poe will also compete for the job.
Pro: Brendel was graded highly this year, 4th in the league in lowest pressure rate in pass protection.
Con: The interior pass rush of the Super Bowl teams broke through. Chris Jones (KC) had two sacks and a forced fumble. Javon Hargrave (Phi) a sack, a TFL, and a hit.
Alternates – Draft:
1. Ohio State’s Luke Wypler (6-3/303) is the rare rookie that’s effective in pass pro and the running game. But he’s projected to get taken between pick Nos. 80-90 and could require a trade-up from No. 99.
2. Olu Oluwatimi of Michigan (6-2/309) has the pure power to match up against Philly and KC in pass pro, no sacks against this year. But he lacks the speed for the 49ers zone scheme.
Prediction: Brendel is re-signed and maybe a late pick at IOL. Possibly Alex Forsyth of Oregon (6-4/303), or UCLA’s Jon Gaines (6-4/303).
RIGHT TACKLE
Expectation: Re-sign Colton McKivitz and have an open competition with a rookie right tackle. BYU’s Blake Freeland (6-8/302) tested well at Indy and may be just out of reach. If he and Jaelyn Duncan of Maryland (6-6/306) go before No. 99 the Niners may wait to take a tackle, and McKivitz is the clear starter.
Pro: McKivitz has delivered in spot play and could develop with more reps. Freeland, if he lasts, is an effective combo blocker in the running game and has played both tackle spots.
Con: Can the Niners stop Philly’s league-best defensive line without a veteran impact starter at right tackle?
Alternates – Free Agency:
1. Andre Dillard (Phi) The Eagles talked with Broderick Jones and Darnell Wright at Indy and are expected to take a new starting tackle in the first round. They can’t keep Dillard, a 2019 first-rounder with elite traits. Dillard couldn’t crack the starting lineup but Philly has the league’s best OL. At Philadelphia, Dillard had 714 snaps with 5 sacks and 45 pressures given up. The Niners gambled on Jake Brendel’s athleticism and won, maybe they can do it again with Dillard.
Alternates – Trade Up
2. Some have called for the Niners to push all their draft chips in and trade up for an impact tackle. Problem with that is the 49ers picks are so low, even all three 3rd round picks only get to No. 62. The elite tackles are gone by the early 2nd and the Niners have no realistic shot of trading up that high. They could deal up in the 3rd for Duncan or Freeland if it looks like both won’t fall to No. 99.
Prediction: McKivitz is re-signed and starts, but if Freeland drops to SF he’d have a chance to take the starting job.
TIGHT END
Expectation: The Niners met with seemingly every tight end at the Combine. Assistant GM Adam Peters hinted the Niners may double down in the draft. If they want a receiver that’s primarily the top seven, at No. 99 led by Tucker Kraft of South Dakota State (6-5/254), comped to Philly’s Dallas Goedert, and Payne Durham of Purdue (6-6/253), who shined in the Senior Bowl.
My guess is they flip it, bulldozer first led by Luke Schoonmaker of Michigan (6-5/251), the 2nd best blocker in the class and an honorary OT with no YAC ability. The late receiver could be Oklahoma’s Brayden Willis (6-3/241), a Swiss army knife H-Back.
Pro: Quality depth and production at TE2 and TE3 is missing.
Con: Will rookies have the necessary strength to block elite defensive linemen in the playoffs?
Alternates – Free Agency
Green Bay’s Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis can be the receiver/blocker duo, but Tonyan will cost $5 million, Miami’s Mike Gesicki would cost $8 million.
Prediction: The Niners double down in the draft, Kraft or Schoonmaker would likely need a 3rd round pick. Keep in mind the Niners don't have a 4th rounder. After the third round, they don't pick again until No. 157.
DEFENSIVE TACKLE
Expectation: The Niners need a run-stuffing nose tackle and an inside pass rusher that will likely require both free agency and the draft. Redshirt Kalia Davis is expected to play a key role. Dalvin Tomlinson has a week to reach a new deal with Minnesota. Houston’s Matt Ionnaidis has history with new Niners Defensive Coordinator Steve Wilks. Poona Ford of Seattle merits a look.
Pro: The Niners have to replace D.J Jones and run stuffers are available.
Con: They’re also expensive.
Alternates – Draft:
Demand is far in excess of supply this year, so DTs will go early. The Niners met with Zacch Pickens of South Carolina (6-4/291) but he’s not expected to last to No. 99. Dante Stills of West Virginia (6-3/286) and Cameron Young of Mississippi State (6-3/304) are possibilities.
Prediction: The Niners sign Ionnaidis or Ford out of necessity, and draft best available, possibly Stills.
EDGE
Facing the possibility that they lose both Samson Ebukam and Charles Omenihu, the Niners will be looking for edges in a talented and fast rookie group, and a long list of free agents. Edges could include Yannick Ngaouke or Dante Fowler, more realistically, they hope to sign vets to relatively inexpensive one-year deals, possibly a return for Arden Key, maybe Leonard Floyd or Robert Quinn. The draft is who falls to No. 99, fans are hoping for Tennessee’s 4.43 edge Byron Young (6-2/250) but he’s unlikely to last.
Pro: Working with the league’s best defensive line coach in Kris Kocurek will attract some vets.
Con: It takes longer to close the sale with vets on a cheaper contract, a lot of dominoes fall first.
Alternates – Free Agency/Trade:
None really. The Niners don’t have the cap room to go big game hunting in free agency. A lot of names are available including Khalil Mack, but it’s hard to make the numbers work.
Alternates – Draft:
Everybody’s favorite sleeper is Eastern Michigan’s Jose Ramirez (6-2/242), 12 sacks, 19.5 TFL, led Indy at 3-cone. He's a pass rush specialist, weak vs. the run. But the league-wide need for a pass rush is so great that Ramirez will be pushed up and may require a 5th-round pick.
Prediction: Key returns along with another vet on a one-year deal, and the team drafts one, maybe two edges to mine a deep class.
SAFETY
Expectation: The Niners are rumored to be in the mix for Cincinnati’s Jessie Bates. This feels like last year when they were named as an early suitor for J.C. Jackson but ultimately couldn’t compete financially. The Eagles chose not to tag Chauncey Gardener-Johnson, who said goodbye to Philly on social media -- he will be as popular and expensive as Bates.
Bringing back Tashaun Gipson ($2 million per) or signing Pittsburgh’s Terrell Edmunds ($3 million per) makes sense, along with drafting Penn State playmaker/leader Ji’Ayir Brown (5-11/202) in the third round.
Pro: The Niners have quality inexpensive options if they fail to land Bates or Gardener-Johnson.
Con: Re-signing Gipson forces zone coverage.
Alternates – Draft:
This is a relatively deep draft for the Niners new safety blueprint: the slow 40 fast 10 playmaker. If Brown isn’t available there are other options, including Iowa’s Riley Moss (6-1/185) who can play corner or safety with 11 picks and 26 pass breakups career.
Alternates – Free Agency:
Jimmie Ward said recently the Niners are still an option, money will be the driver.
Prediction: Keeping Gipson and drafting Brown fits the Niners plans. Gardener-Johnson seems more of a possibility than Bates, but both will be expensive.
