Progress and Barriers on the 49ers' Quest for Six
The 49ers championship history is feast or famine. They won five championships in 14 years and now enter Year 28 of the Quest for Six. Recent NFL champions share a blueprint led by one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch are betting on a system processor at quarterback with a loaded roster around him.
Can the Niners succeed? What progress has been made? What barriers remain?
2022 Realization: Interceptions are tied to ball skills more than the pass rush.
Entering 2022, the Niners were tied with the New York Jets for the fewest interceptions in the league since 2017. This despite their consistent prioritization of the defensive line. The price of ignoring ball skills at safety was crystallized when Jaquiski Tartt dropped a pop fly would-be interception in the NFC Championship against the Los Angeles Rams.
Last season, ball skills were finally added as Talanoa Hufanga was elevated to a starting role, and the team signed Charvarius Ward and Tashaun Gipson. In one year, the Niners rose from nine picks and 26th in the league to 20 interceptions and tied for first. The Niners’ two playoff wins were helped by three interceptions.
2023 Realization: The offensive line is too light.
The external signings at offensive line are diverting from the historic 49ers profile of lean and quick in favor of heavier maulers. Interior offensive lineman Jon Feliciano is 6'4", 324 lbs. and tackle Matt Pryor is a major departure at 6'7", 351 lbs. The Niners have redshirted linemen to build up to NFL strength. The upcoming draft will indicate if the team now prefers to start from a heavier, more powerful base.
Kyle Shanahan’s Ongoing Bet: That a team with the best set of weapons in the league, a No. 1 defense, and a dominant defensive line can win a ring with a system quarterback and a cheap right side of the offensive line.
2019: Lost the Super Bowl due to a system quarterback that could not complete a deep throw to an open receiver near the end zone, threw two interceptions, and had four passes swatted at the line in the final two minutes. On their final four possessions of the game, the 49er offense had two first downs and an interception as a gassed defense gave up three touchdowns in the fourth quarter.
Cause of defeat: Quarterback, offensive line, and running back. Unable to run the game out up by 10 points with under 12 minutes left.
2021: Up 10 with 17 minutes left, the 49ers offense produced just two first downs the rest of the way as the Rams scored the final 13 points to win the NFC Championship.
Cause of defeat: Quarterback, offensive line, running back, lack of ball skills at safety. Jimmy Garoppolo closed the game with nine passes, two generated positive yardage and a third was intercepted.
2022: During the Niners’ sixth play on offense in the NFC Championship, Philadelphia edge Haason Reddick beat Tyler Kroft at the line and closed quickly on Brock Purdy, causing a fumble and injuring Purdy’s elbow. Backup quarterback Josh Johnson was also taken out of the game by the Philly defensive line and the game was over.
Cause of defeat: Backup quarterback, backup tight end, and offensive line.
Barrier: Matchups win playoff games.
Shanahan’s reliance on scheme can call for unrealistic execution given the matchup. On the Purdy play, a backup tight end who was on and off the active roster was blocking a 2nd Team All-Pro in Reddick. Kroft was beat instantly and rookie Purdy lacked the pocket awareness to step up to change the pass rush angle for Reddick. The play design doesn’t factor in matchups or individual experience, the margin for error is too small.
This is particularly true in the positions the Niners intentionally do not invest in due to their cap strategy - quarterback and the right side of the offensive line. Which then author the playoff defeats.
Barrier: Acquiring an impact starter at right tackle.
The Niners cap strategy prevents it. They don’t have the cap space, and this year they don’t have a high draft pick or the assets to trade up for one to get a Day 1 starter on the cheap. They’ve painted themselves into a corner and will likely have to wait until their first-round pick in the 2024 draft. Will this hurt their chances in 2023 significantly? History says absolutely. Colton McKivitz will try to prove otherwise.
A second factor is that the Niners are a decidedly left-handed team running the ball. The foundational concept of Shanahan’s scheme is unpredictability. An investment in the right side of the line would restore balance to the force, they could run left or right with equal success.
Emerging Barrier: Teams scheme to stop Purdy.
In the playoffs, Seattle’s Pete Carroll utilized his Robber defense flooding the field with safeties to stop Purdy, but it failed without a pass rush. Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn duplicated Carroll’s concept, the Cowboys have an elite pass rush, and Purdy was held to 19 points.
With the Niners committing to Purdy as the starter, teams will turn to flooding the field to stop him. That requires a pass rush. Philly has the league’s best, Dallas is elite, Detroit and Seattle both have two first-rounders and two 2nds to build one.
Shanahan is betting if his system is optimized with a Pentium processing chip in Purdy that the Niners weapons around him can move the ball with precise execution and timing. Opposing teams are betting that if they pressure Purdy and deny the Niners space downfield, that the system will break down. Defenses will look to force Purdy to try to beat them with arm skills he lacks, and that the Niners vulnerable offensive line won’t give him time.
Next year’s playoffs will provide the answer on who’s right.
Up next, a look at the Quest for Six in terms of internal leadership, culture, and lessons from the past.
