49ers Mock Draft 1.0: Weapons of Choice
A mock draft in March is more about the decisions the 49ers face than who they ultimately pick. What makes this draft unique is how thin it is at the top, just 15 first round grades by consensus. So the talent is inflated, a normal late 3rd rounder is now mid-3rd, which hurts the Niners waiting at No. 99.
This mock looks at the Niners trade options and talent pools at each pick.
The Trade-Up Options
The Day 1 starting tackles go off the board quickly, five in the first round, and a sixth in the early 30s. Matthew Bergeron and Cody Mauch go late 2nd-early 3rd. Tight ends Darnell Washington of Georgia and Sam LaPorta of Iowa are gone too.
Four potential trade-up options emerge in the 80s: Tennessee speed edge Byron Young, Oklahoma tackle Wanya Morris, South Carolina defensive back Darius Rush, and South Dakota State tight end Tucker Kraft.
In my view, they pass on Young and Morris, as they likely have similar grades on other options at No. 99. They are tempted by Rush, a 4.36 6-2 corner with exceptional length and skills, but they are unlikely to package picks for a corner when they already have two starters. Now or never for Rush as he’s at the end of a talent tier and will likely go in the 80s. Kraft, they hope he falls to them, but teams know he’s the last high impact receiving tight end and may trade ahead of the Niners to grab him.
The 3rd Round Pool
Picks: No. 99, 101, and 102.
The Niners pick at No. 99 is influenced by who they project the Raiders will take at No. 100. It’s a near-certainty that some Niners fans will have an expletive-laden reaction to whoever the Raiders select. The crush that got away.
RB: Tank Bigsby (Auburn) – Another opportunity for expletive-laden fan comments.
WR: Jonathan Mingo (Georgia) – A great fit but they are looking at receivers later in the draft.
TE: Zack Kuntz (Old Dominion) – A Combine star in the testing but that hasn’t translated to the field.
OT: Blake Freeland (BYU) – Experience in a zone blocking system at both tackle spots, an effective combo blocker in the run game, but leverage and agility issues in pass pro at 6-8.
OT: Tyler Steen (Alabama) 6-6/321, he led all tackles at Indy with 31 bench reps and had a quick shuttle time of 4.59, but on the field he gave up 23 pressures and had six penalties.
Edge: Isaiah McGuire (Missouri), Andre Carter (Army), Zach Harrison (Ohio St.), YaYa Diaby (Louisville).
LB: Demarvion Overshown (Texas) – Too early. The Niners have met with fits that go in the 5th and 6th.
DB: Jaylon Jones (Texas A&M) – T-Rex arms are vetoed.
S: Jartavius Martin (Illinois) 4.46 with a blazing 1.47 10 split, 10 pass breakups, but at 5-11/194 he may be too small for Steve Wilks’ blueprint.
S: Daniel Scott (Cal) Short arms, the 49er kiss of death.
No. 99 – YaYa Diaby (Louisville) 6-3/263 Edge – It’s the Niners, DL first and the Raiders could consider him next. The best way to optimize Javon Hargrave is to put impact talent around him. Diaby has 4.51 speed and ran one of the fastest 10 splits by defensive linemen at Indy in 1.56. A high-motor player, he had 10 sacks and 36 pressures at a 16.1% pass rush win rate. Diaby has a great burst off the line, converts speed to power, uses his hands well, and plays with balance.
No. 100 – The Raiders take USC guard Andrew Vorhees and the Niners breathe a huge sigh of relief.
No. 101 – Blake Freeland (BYU) Right Tackle - Not the Day-1 tackle fans were hoping for, but a great fit for the running game and he’s played both tackle spots. Freeland had an up-and-down Senior Bowl but he opened it well. Check out the first play of the game, a combo block taking out two defenders that springs the back for over a 20-yard gain.
No. 102 Trade – In an unexpected plot twist the Niners move down, trading No.102, a 2024 6th round pick, and No. 247 to New England for No. 117 and No. 135.
The…4th Round Pool
Picks: No 117, 135.
The move down unlocks the draft for the Niners, the safeties they would target are still on the board, and now they have two selections in the playmaker sweet spot of this draft. They could also consider packaging the two early 5th round picks and the 6th to go up to No. 120. Either way, it makes sense for them to move into the 4th.
RB: Chase Brown (Illinois) 5-10/209, over 1,600 yards rushing with 13 TDs, receiving skills, 4.43 speed with 25 bench reps - but an indecisive runner behind the line and weak at pass pro.
RB: Keaton Mitchell (East Carolina) 5-8/179 with 4.37 speed, over 1,400 yards, 15 TDs, good receiving stats, and a YAC guy. A home run hitter with no fumbles. Is he too small though?
RB: Eric Gray (Oklahoma) 5-9/207, decisive with burst, great cutter and receiver, but no breakaway speed.
WR: Trey Palmer (Nebraska) 4.33 speed, over 1,000 yards with 9 TDs, but a 13.4% drop rate.
WR: Tyler Scott (Cincinnati) 5-10/177 4.4 speed, leaper that contests well, but an 11% drop rate.
WR: Jalen Moleno-Cropper (Fresno St) 5-11/172, 1,100 yards with 5 TDs, great hands and YAC ability.
TE: The no YAC blockers: Luke Schoonmaker (Michigan), Josh Whyle (Cincinnati), and Davis Allen (Clemson).
IOL: Olu Oluwatimi (Michigan) NFL starter strength but he lacks the athleticism for the scheme.
DT: Gervon Dexter (Florida) is a 6-6/310 run stuffer that can fill the D.J. Jones role.
DT: Zacch Pickens (South Carolina) 6-4/291 has a phenomenal first step and upper body strength.
DT: Jacquelin Roy (LSU) 6-3/305 – Great first step, speed, and hands, excellent tools but a little raw.
DB: Kyu Blu Kelly (Stanford) 6-0/191 Physical without getting flagged, good tracking and ball skills.
S: Ji’Ayir Brown (Penn State) 5-11/203 ten picks in two years, leading tackler, 4.5 sacks.
S: J.L. Skinner (Boise St) 6-4/209 Torn pectoral muscle. Four INTs, a QB rating against of just 37.8.
If they go running back, Gray is their blueprint, but Brown has great tools and Mitchell is the elite speed back they don’t have. With the Niners reportedly inquiring about Hunter Renfrow in a trade, they’re in the market for a slot receiver. Great choices at defensive tackle here, but it was the focus in free agency.
No. 117 - Ji’Ayir Brown (Penn State) 5-11/203 Safety - Steve Wilks will target a playmaker who can blitz. Brown has competitive greatness, playing your best when it counts most, undervalued in draft eval. The Rose Bowl Defensive MVP with 8 tackles, 1.5 sacks and an interception. A safety is needed, Gipson is in his final year. Brown’s QB rating against was 59.2 facing the nation’s best. He forms a long-term ballhawking duo at safety with Talanoa Hufanga.
No. 135 - Jalen Moleno-Cropper (Fresno State) 5-11/172 Slot Receiver – A 4.4 YAC weapon from the slot, he led the country at WR with 19 missed forced tackles. A drop rate under seven and he excels at separation, the #1 trait on Kyle Shanahan’s shopping list. Speaking of shopping, JMC will need to hit the grocery store, 172 pounds, nope.
The Late Show
Packaging some or all of the three fifth-round picks is a solid possibility, so is a targeted move down to get picks in the early 6th. They have a number of players they’re taking a close look at who fall to this area of the draft. The Niners still need a receiving tight end, a development corner, and depth at offensive tackle. There’s late diamonds in the rough at linebacker and defensive line, and the Niners are still without a kicker.
This is the area of the draft that changes dramatically in future mocks. For now, I have them reaching early for players they are thought to like.
No. 155 – Brayden Willis (Oklahoma) 6-4/241 Tight End, a chess piece, an H-Back that can line up anywhere. A YAC player with inline blocking ability. Reliable hands, 7 TDs, and a QB rating when targeted of 116.0.
Others: Will Mallory (Miami) 6-4/239. Separates, big catch radius, but he has an 11% career drop rate with weak ball skills and blocking. If Payne Durham of Purdue falls this late, he’s a great option.
No. 164 – Mohamoud Diabate (Utah) 6-3/229 Linebacker, he should take a huge jump after leaping 11 feet in the broad jump at his pro day, beating every player at the Combine, WRs, DBs, all of them. He also had a 34 vertical. He’s currently projected for mid-to-late 6th but should take a significant move up. He fits the 49er linebacker profile of seek and destroy, and they’ve met with him.
Others: Cam Jones (Indiana) 6-1/227 another prototype for the system but he has a 4th round grade.
No. 173 Trade – The 49ers trade pick No. 173, No. 216, and No. 255 to Houston for No. 188 and No. 201. Lining up value.
No. 188 – Carter Warren (Pitt) 6-6/311 Offensive Tackle, quick feet with some violence to his game.
Others: Trevor Reid (Louisville) 6-4/297 OT, Nick Saldiveri (ODU) 6-6/318 IOL, Alex Forsyth (Oregon) 6-4/294 IOL.
No. 201 - Terell Smith (Minnesota) 6-0/204 DB, 4.41 speed with long arms.
Others: Cory Trice (Purdue) 6-3/206, Rezjohn Wright (Oregon St) 6-2/193.
If they draft Michigan kicker Jake Moody, he’d need to go here at 173. Moody wowed at his pro day, 12-13 with a long of 63. But the Niners rarely roll the dice like that. They are waiting out Robbie Gould, who doesn’t like their offer but he might not have a choice in the matter.
If they stay at 216, then No. 216 – Robert Beal (Georgia) 6-4/247 Edge – He hasn’t had consistent playing time so his technique is underdeveloped, but he has the requisite physical clay. 4.48 40, 4.42 shuttle.
Others: Jose Ramirez (Central Michigan) 6-3/252, 12 sacks, led Indy at 3-cone, but he’s now early 5th round. Brenton Cox (Florida) 6-4/250, D.J. Johnson (Oregon) 6-4/260, Habakkuk Baldonado (Pitt) 6-4/251.
No. 253 – Logan Bonner (Utah St) 6-1/230 Quarterback, Bonner showed athleticism at his recent pro day in front of the Niners, Packers, Chiefs, Raiders, and Colts. He has an injury history with knee and foot problems but when healthy he delivers. In 2021, he completed 61% of his passes for 3,600 yards, 36 TDs, and 12 picks.
Mock 2 in mid-April.
