The 49ers One-Off Draft
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Heading into this draft, the 49ers had invested least in this regime at two positions: safety and tight end. Over the last six years, safety had a 3rd, 5th, and 6th round pick, tight end a fifth, and two sixths. It’s rare to take the long view but the Niners did here. Effective team building requires balance.
The Niners made one-off long-term investments in a one-off draft.
When you don’t pick until No. 99, it's an inherently different draft. The Niners saw an opportunity to do what they normally don’t, to invest in the neglected positions and make a very unpopular move for a kicker. An “eat your vegetables” draft as part of a balanced team diet.
Some are pushing back on taking a safety early, citing positional value. I think the Niners got religion on safety after three events. Jacquiski Tartt’s drop in the 2021 NFC Championship. Talanoa Hufanga’s emergence. The jump in turnovers after adding ball skills to the secondary, going from last in the league to a tie for first. Brown is a premier ballhawk, ten picks in two years. One of the many reasons for taking him.
There’s far more pushback on taking a kicker in the third. In 2021, Cincinnati used the 149th pick to take Florida’s Evan McPherson. Kicker. Fans went berserk. Then McPherson shut them up by kicking two game-winning field goals in the playoffs to send the Bengals to the Super Bowl.
That’s the bar set for Jake Moody and he’ll write his own story, but it may be that McPherson’s success influenced the Niner decision. That and Moody going 12-13 at his pro day with a slight miss at 57 and hitting one from 63, and his 59-yarder against TCU in the national semis. Moody is another one-off investment.
I get it, fans can hate picks, back up why, and fume. When Ty Davis-Price was selected last year lava flowed out of my ears. Moody I’m good, I believe he's unique. His leg will also help on kickoffs, which was a weakness this year. Starting field position for the opponent is often overlooked.
These one-offs are made once in a unique draft. That clears the table, now no safeties are needed early, no tight ends for years. All before the Niners have a full complement of picks next year and can focus on fewer positions. Drafts are connected.
Meanwhile, Ji’Ayir Brown and Talanoa Hufanga can be the Niner safety tandem for several years, the tight end room has an overdue upgrade, and if Moody becomes the weapon he was at Michigan he can go from zero to hero.
Prior to the draft, John Lynch mentioned that this year for the first time he analyzed the draft from the bottom up. Another one-off in response to a flat draft that was wide in the later rounds with players of similar value. That played out at edge. Lynch anticipated he had his speed edge in Robert Beal Jr. waiting in the 5th round, which is why he skipped edge in the 3rd. Bottoms up.
Lynch speaks often of a player’s spirit, the essence of the person and player that leads the team to say, “That’s a Niner.” Defensive Coordinator Steve Wilks said “that’s my dude” about Brown.
In this draft, we got a glimpse of Wilks’ blueprint and the team’s definition of spirit. Draft analysis can zoom in on stats, measurables, and skillsets. The Niners valued an element that's subtle and can go unnoticed, competitive greatness. UCLA coaching legend John Wooden’s term for a player that performs his best when it counts most.
In my view, competitive greatness is part of what sold the Niners on Ji’Ayir Brown and Dee Winters, who excelled in the Rose Bowl and the college playoffs respectively. Flipping it, the lack of competitive drive is part of why I believe they passed on Maryland tackle Jaelyn Duncan, who did not play well in his biggest games.
The dominant athletes in any sport are competitive assassins. The Niners have a rich history of players who embody that spirit, and selected players in this draft who they believe will contribute to that legacy.
A majority of fans in the social media sphere are upset that no tackle was taken. As Lynch said, the team wasn’t going to take a tackle just to take a tackle.
In my view, the Niners passed on a tackle for three reasons. A belief in McKivitz, comparing him to Jake Brendel, who fans doubted, and then proved himself. Far less belief in this draft class, and we’ll see how that plays out. Then the primary reason, drafts are connected.
The Niner cap blueprint doesn’t allow for investment at right tackle, so they need a starting-caliber tackle in the draft. They can’t do that without a first-rounder, which they finally have next year.
The team believes Trent Williams when he says he wants to play for years. If they plan on next year’s first-rounder competing with McKivitz at right tackle, then they pass on tackle at No. 99 in this draft. Particularly if they’re not sold on the talent level.
Fans can argue Williams could retire and that’s undeniably true, but the Niners are taking that gamble. Lynch and Shanahan can wish things into being and this is one of them.
I believe the future at right tackle will be next year’s first-round draft pick. I’ve predicted that could be Notre Dame’s Blake Fisher, check out his games this year.
Speaking of predictions, time to look at my mock draft scorecard. I called four of the nine picks: Ji’Ayir Brown, Darrell Luter, Brayden Willis, and Ronnie Bell. I also profiled Robert Beal Jr. and Dee Winters as players the team would take a close look at in my draft capsule series. Not bad.
Ji’Ayir Brown is the player I wanted most in this draft for the Niners. I also think Jake Moody will become a cult hero of the Faithful. For this draft, I saw things as the Niners did. I took the long view.
