49ers Put Trey Lance on eBay

Lance’s market value has cratered.

John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan made it clear at the NFL Annual Meeting that Brock Purdy is the 49ers' guy at quarterback, that Trey Lance will split first-string reps with Sam Darnold at OTAs, and that none of their quarterbacks are off limits in a trade. 

Put all that together, and it seems that Lance is on eBay. Give the 49ers a second-round pick in the upcoming draft and he’s yours. 

Crickets. 

Tumbleweeds. 

A harmonica plays in the distance. 

Lance’s market value has cratered. Status quo ante is a third rounder. Unless a team determines Lance is a priority, a third round pick is the ceiling. No team offers a second because no one else will, and this draft has a talent cliff around 50. A third, sure, a second, nope.

While Lance would be ranked no lower than fifth among the quarterbacks in this draft on talent, he’s entering the third year of a contract for the No. 3 pick. He’s expensive, his rookie deal is nearly over, and he has started only four games. That limits what clubs will offer.

The Niners did this dance with Jimmy Garoppolo, overvaluing the market in what they would accept in trade. No one would meet their asking price. No reason to expect the Niners will handle Lance any differently.

While teams talk up the possibility of dealing a quarterback if somebody goes down, only one quarterback has been traded in-season in the past three years - Joe Flacco from the Eagles to the Jets in 2021. If the Niners were to move Lance after the draft, who would have the cap room to take on his contract and be willing to offer a second rounder?

Complicating matters further, clarity on Brock Purdy’s recovery won’t come until after the draft. OTA’s don’t begin until after the draft, but the window on trading Lance is before the draft. Are the Niners willing to take that risk? They tend to act conservatively. They also may not want the dead cap hit that comes with dealing Lance now.

One development could change their mind. If the NFL decides to keep the status quo on quarterback eligibility on game day, limiting it to two, that may lead Lynch to be more open to dealing and bring his asking price down.

It makes sense to move Lance. It establishes a clear pecking order, gives the team clarity, and it’s better for Lance to move on. However, can the Niners move Lance before knowing Purdy’s status, before seeing Lance in OTAs, in a trade package led by a third-round pick in a draft Lynch says is flat? The trade offers at this point would peak at 72 and change from Tennessee and 84 and change from Miami. Not enough to move the needle.

Then there’s Lance himself. He wants the chance to compete at OTAs and show what he can do. He’s not going to request a trade.

There’s a long list of reasons to predict Lance will be traded. But history says he won’t. Not this year. No one is likely to offer a second-round pick, the Niners don’t take unnecessary risks, and they will want to take a look at Trey in OTAs before moving him. He still could be traded if someone offers a second unexpectedly, or if the league says only two QBs can suit up on game day, or if the Niners decide they believe in Sam Darnold enough to move on from Lance. 

All possible. But not probable.