The Seven 49ers Games That Define The Regular Season

The Niners 2023 schedule is one of the toughest in the NFL, only trailing Seattle in air miles, and the team has the least amount of rest compared to their opponents over the season. The good news, ten of the games are against teams with a weak pass rush, ranking 12th or lower in sacks. Brock Purdy’s quarterback rating is exceptionally high when he has a clean pocket.

Breaking the schedule down, it appears that seven games will determine if the Niners are a No. 1 seed or drop down. They will need to overcome the recent slow starts and injury trouble to stay in the hunt for the No. 1 seed. All times are Pacific.

Week 1 at Pittsburgh - Sunday, September 10th, 10 am

In the Shanahan Era, the Niners are .417 in their first six games of each year, opening at 3-3 and 2-4 the last two seasons. This is the Steelers first home opener since 2014. They have won four of their last six openers, Mike Tomlin has them ready to play.

Pittsburgh closed last year winning six of their last seven. They pose a threat with pass rushers three-time All-Pro T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith (14.5 sacks). Will Kyle Shanahan give Colton McKivitz chip help with extra blockers? The key for the Niners is to avoid turnovers. In their losses in the first six games the past two years, they lost the turnover margin 17-4.

Week 5 Dallas – Sunday, October 8th, 5:20 pm

This is a revenge game for Dallas with the Niners ending the Cowboys season two years in a row in the playoffs. The Niners must do a better job of protecting Brock Purdy as Dallas had a pressure rate of 48.5% in last year’s playoffs, a key factor in the Niners only scoring 19 points.

The Niners will look to run and this will be an important test of Dallas first round pick defensive tackle Mazi Smith out of Michigan. It will also be a test for Purdy, who the Niners want to step up in the pocket this year, but will Purdy revert to instinct and try to duck out left? In a Sunday night prime-time game the Niners can count on George Kittle having an impact. Must win for both teams as head-to-head tiebreakers are expected be critical in the NFC playoff seeding this year.

Week 8 Cincinnati – Sunday, October 29, 1:25 pm

A Super Bowl preview according to some. This is a prove it game for new Niners defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. Can he blitz against Joe Burrow, JaMarr Chase, and Tee Higgins? The concern for Cincinnati is defense, their line was 29th in sacks last year, and they lost starting safeties Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell in free agency. This is an opportunity for Brock Purdy to put up big numbers.

Week 11 at Seattle – Thursday, November 23, 5:20 pm

The gauntlet begins as the Niners face four difficult opponents in five weeks, the toughest stretch of the schedule. The winner of this game may have the division lead. Both teams are coming off short rest playing on a Thanksgiving night in Seattle where it’s likely cold, wet, or both on turf. The injury risk for both teams will be off the charts. Will Kyle Shanahan utilize rotations to protect his players? Injuries in this game would be compounded given the next opponent…

Week 12 at Phlladelphia – Sunday, December 3, 1:25 pm

The rematch. All the Niners talk about they would have won if Purdy had stayed healthy. The question is will he be healthy going into this one after the high injury risk of playing in Seattle Thanksgiving night on four days rest. This is the do-or-die game for Colton McKivitz facing 2nd team All-Pro edge Hasson Reddick and rookie 4.3 40 speed rusher Nolan Smith.

It’s also a test for the revamped Niners defensive front against the league’s best offensive line. Javon Hargrave will be motivated against his former teammates and the Eagles will know to run at him. Will Wilks blitz to create pressure? The most physical game of the year, again in cold weather, the injury risk is high for the second game in a row.

Week 13 Seattle – Sunday, December 10th, 1:05 pm

Facing the Seahawks for the second time in three weeks in another must-win game. Have the Hawks done enough to address their weakness on run defense? Can the Niners contain all the Seattle weapons on offense? The Seattle games will be a showcase for arguably the most underrated Niner, nickel back Isaiah Oliver. He will need to help on the run and cover Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the slot. If Oliver succeeds the Niners will.

Week 15, Baltimore, Monday, December 25, 5:15 pm

On Christmas night the Niners host the Ravens and it’s another test for Steve Wilks, can he come up with a solution against the running of Lamar Jackson? Running quarterbacks have been Niner kryptonite for years. DeMeco Ryans refused to employ a spy, what will Wilks do? Kyle Shanahan may choose to help by playing keep away and looking to run, but it won’t be easy. The Ravens defense ranked 3rd against the run last year, giving up 3.9 yards per carry.

If the Niners take care of business in the other ten games, they only need to win three of these seven games to have a good shot at the No. 1 seed. In likelihood, the Niners-Eagles winner will be in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 seed. That the Niners go into that matchup coming off their highest injury risk game of the year does them no favors. This year everything is earned the hard way.