What Needs to Happen for Nick Bosa to win Defensive Player of the Year

By winning Defensive Player of the Year in 2020, Nick Bosa would become the first defensive lineman in NFL history to win Defensive Rookie and Defensive Player of the Year in consecutive seasons. (Related: How Nick Bosa Can Make History in 2020).

Winning DPOY is a very challenging accomplishment, as only two 49ers have received the accolade - Dana Stubblefield in 1997 and Deion Sanders in 1994.

So what needs to happen in order for Bosa to win the award in 2020?

1) Bosa needs to stay healthy

This one is as obvious as it gets. Bosa staying healthy this upcoming season means as much to the 49ers success, as it means for his own personal success.

Bosa played in all 19 games for the 49ers last season, which put to rest some of his injury and durability concerns. Bosa missed the entire 2019 preseason with what John Lynch described as a “significant” ankle sprain. Bosa also missed the final 11 games of his final season at Ohio State with a groin/abdomen injury.

Despite missing all of the preseason, Bosa immediately made an impact for the 49ers as soon as he stepped on the football field Week 1 against the Buccaneers.

Even though he’ll only be a sophomore this upcoming season, the 49ers should give Bosa superstar treatment and just sit him throughout the preseason. He has already shown he can miss preseason action without missing a step.

Bosa playing in 16 games again this year maximizes his opportunity for impact, and ultimately betters his chances of winning the award.

2) The defensive line needs to stay healthy (I’m talking to you, Dee Ford)

Bosa is the superhero of the 49ers’ defense. However for every superhero to be at their best, they need their sidekick.

Bosa’s sidekick last season wasn’t DeForest Buckner, it wasn’t Arik Armstead, it was Dee Ford.

Both Bosa and Ford joined the 49ers last season, and when they were both on the field at the same time they elevated the defense to upper-elechon heights.

Ford missed six games due to injury last season (including his four-snap game against the Saints), and in those six games Bosa struggled to finish off plays.

Bosa was still effective in Ford’s absence as he consistently generated pressure, but generating pressure isn’t enough to win Defensive Player of the Year. Making game-changing plays and finishing off hurries and pressures with sacks is what needs to happen.

Bosa’s splits with and without Ford:

Games: 13 with / 6 without
Sacks: 11 with / 2 without
Sacks Per Game- .85 / .33

The defensive line staying healthy doesn’t start and end with Ford. Last season, Ronald Blair and DJ Jones ended the year on Injured Reserve. It is important for the entire defensive line to maintain good health.

The healthier the defensive line, the fresher each player on the line will be. Each player on the defensive line playing 16 games next season seems unrealistic, as injuries are inevitable. However if the 49ers could just keep six to seven of their main defensive linemen healthy throughout the season, they should be in good shape.

The healthier and fresher Bosa is, the more effective he will be during his defensive snaps. Maximizing opportunities and maximizing effectiveness within those opportunities are two major keys that better Bosa’s Defensive Player of the Year candidacy.

3) Javon Kinlaw needs to be an effective interior pass rusher

Kinlaw has huge shoes to fill, as he’s stepping in as Buckner’s immediate replacement. Buckner did a tremendous job drawing the attention of opposing offensive lines.

Now it’s unfair to expect Kinlaw to draw the same kind of attention in his rookie season that Buckner drew, but Kinlaw needs to hold his own and make opposing offensive lines think about him.

The more balance there is on the defensive line in regards to pass-rushing ability, the less teams can hone in on stopping and doubling Bosa.

Kinlaw doing his part, in addition to Ford and Armstead, will grant Bosa more one-on-one opportunities as a pass-rusher. Bosa wins one-on-ones. The more he finds himself with just one offensive lineman to beat, the higher his sack total will be.

4) Bosa needs to play like playoff Bosa all year long

Bosa’s playoff performance was otherworldly. In just three playoff games, Bosa recorded:

4 sacks, 5 QB hits, 15 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 2 passes deflected, and 1 forced fumble.

If Bosa were to average that over a 16-game season, his stat line would be as follows:

21 sacks, 27 QB hits, 80 tackles, 16 tackles for loss, 11 passes deflected, 6 forced fumbles.

This would be a superior leap from his 2019 rookie season numbers, and it is comparable to Aaron Donald’s latest Defensive Player of the Year season.

In 2018, Donald recorded: 20.5 sacks, 41 QB hits, 25 tackles for loss, and forced 4 fumbles.

In 2017, Donald recorded: 11 sacks, 27 QB hits, 15 tackles for loss, and forced 5 fumbles.

Donald is the last defensive lineman to win Defensive Player of the Year, and he did it both in 2017 and 2018.

Bosa putting up a stat line somewhere in the middle of Donald’s 2017 and 2018 numbers seems realistic and gives him a good chance to win the 2020 Defensive Player of the Year award, and ultimately make history.

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