Why George Kittle is Worth $20 Million per Season
What sweet spot?
According to the NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah, 49ers tight end George Kittle doesn’t necessarily need to meet the 49ers halfway in their contract negotiations, or find a “sweet spot” between his demand and the team’s offer, as general manager John Lynch said he and Kittle would come to.
No, Kittle can hold firm because he is worth close to $20 million per season, according to Jeremiah. Here’s what Jeremiah said:
“We talk about the value of versatility. The old days of, ‘You’re going to get paid as a tight end,’ or, ‘You’re going to get paid as a wide receiver’ -- I think you throw that out the window in this negotiation...You talk about blocking like an offensive lineman but being able to run routes like a wide receiver. You look at those markets, for the offensive line it’s $16 million to $18 million at the top end. For wide receivers, it’s $18 million to $22 million at the top end. So I think he’s going to find his way closer to $20 million than closer to $15 million when this is all said and done with this deal.”
Here are three takeaways from Jeremiah’s analysis.
1. Jeremiah is 100 percent correct.
Kittle is more of a wide-receiver-offensive-tackle hybrid than a mere tight end. Since 2018, Kittle has 2,430 receiving yards—more than all but four wide receivers in the NFL during that time. More than Cowboys wide receiver Amari Cooper, who makes $20 million per season. Meaning Kittle could ask for $21 million per season.
Kittle also blocks like an offensive tackle. When he was on the field last season, the 49ers averaged 5.0 yards per carry and scored 20 rushing touchdowns. When he wasn’t on the field, they averaged just 3.5 yards per carry and scored only three rushing touchdowns. Kittle is the 49ers’ most valuable player, and absolutely deserves to earn more than Dee Ford and Arik Armstead, each of whom makes $17 million per season.
2. The 49ers have leverage, but why would they want to use it?
Instead of giving Kittle what he’s worth, the 49ers can force him to play out the final season of his rookie contract, which will pay him $2.1 million in 2020. Then they can franchise tag him three years in a row and pay him $10.6 million in 2021, $12.7 million in 2022 and $15.3 million in 2023 -- i.e., four years, $40 million, as opposed to five years, $100 million.
That’s how far apart these two sides could be.
But why would the 49ers want to alienate their best player? Why would they want Kittle to hold out of training camp and possibly the season, too? Why would they want to create bad blood between themselves and the leader of the locker room, someone other players look up to? If the 49ers won’t take care of Kittle, who does everything right, what message would they send to everyone else on the team?
They should want to pay Kittle close to $20 million per season. They should be proud to have such a great, rare player. They might never find another one like him.
3. The 49ers and Kittle probably will reach an agreement before training camp.
I think this negotiation will come down to the deadline.
I’m sure the 49ers hate the idea of paying $20 million per season to anyone who’s not a quarterback -- that’s why they traded DeForest Buckner to the Colts this offseason. And I’m sure Kyle Shanahan feels he can create a great offense without Kittle. I wouldn’t be surprised if Shanahan even has toyed with the idea of trading Kittle if Kittle won’t lower his contract demand.
But Shanahan isn’t the general manager—Lynch is. And Lynch is a smart, sensible, grownup leader. I can’t see him poisoning the relationship with Kittle or trading him out of ego or spite, even though Lynch traded Buckner. Kittle would be even tougher to replace than Buckner. How many wide-receiver-offensive-tackle hybrids exist?
Lynch can drag his feet for now, but when training camp begins, I expect he’ll give Kittle an extension worth $19 million or $20 million per season. And everyone on the 49ers will rejoice.
