Why Kyle Shanahan was Surprised Trey Lance Wanted Out

In the press conference following the 49ers exhibition loss to the Chargers, a regretful Kyle Shanahan looked back on his time with Trey Lance, clearly taken aback by Lance’s decision to demand a trade out after being named QB 3.

In “The Matrix,” The Oracle tells Neo, “No one can see beyond a choice they don’t understand.” This was the case with Shanahan. He didn’t get it. He didn’t see the biases that Lance saw stacked against him.

“I didn’t want to BS him. That was something I felt I owed to Trey.” – Kyle Shanahan

“We took a shot and it didn’t work out. We own that, we take accountability for that.” – John Lynch on the 49ers-Chargers broadcast.

Those quotes merit this one from Ralph Waldo Emerson. “What you do speaks so loudly that I cannot hear what you say.”

Actions

Lance, and the team, were owed action on this huge investment of three No. 1 picks: development, reps, and honest competition.

Four starts, the least for a quarterback selected in the top ten in thirty years.

It happens. The hit rate on quarterbacks is low. Lynch is right, they took a shot on trading up for Lance, but after that what did they do? Not much. They spent way over budget on a sports car, got in an accident, and then towed the car to the dealership.

Why?

When Shanahan picked Lance he said he wanted to pursue 11-on-11 football with a dual-threat quarterback. Then in the second game of 2022, Lance went down with a season-ending leg injury on a poorly blocked running play. He wasn’t that effective on designed runs up to that point. Now he was done for the year, and in my view, Shanahan closed the book on Lance then and there as a worthwhile but failed experiment.

Shanahan is prone to impulsive personnel decisions, and this is another example. He saw Josh Allen’s effectiveness as a dual-threat quarterback and wanted one of his own. It didn’t work and he returned to the processor he trusts most.

This raises the question, why was Lance not ruled out in evaluation when the bedrock principle of Shanahan’s scheme is “see it, throw it” processing and decision making? Lance was an overly cautious passer at North Dakota State, reflected in no interceptions.

It’s tempting to say and easy to criticize in hindsight, but the process does need to be called into question. Lance wasn’t a scheme fit to begin with and yet he was taken. The evaluation was not thorough, even with this big of an investment. Then when it was clear Lance wasn’t a fit, pivot and on to the next.

Shanahan says he didn’t want to BS Trey, but the process says he gave up in 2022 and then closed the Lance chapter by signing Sam Darnold in free agency.

This isn’t a meritocracy, it’s Shanahan’s team, his call on what he wants. But to claim Darnold clearly won a competition when by local media accounts there was no clear and obvious winner again reflects a bias that Lance saw and Shanahan did not.

By some reporting Darnold was told upon signing he would be QB2. Shanahan being enamored with Darnold was well-established before Sam was signed, and that played out in naming him QB2.

Consequences

Three No. 1s and a No. 3 gone, on a team lacking depth and needing cost-controlled players who make an impact. Why wasn’t an investment of that magnitude matched with an equally aggressive development plan to get Lance up to speed?

Lance’s doubters will say because he wasn’t good enough. Then blame Shanahan for botching the evaluation in the first place.

Shanahan knows evaluation and development isn’t his strength, upon coming to San Francisco he said he preferred to have an established quarterback.

Now that the Lance experiment is over, Shanahan is faced with a changed reality. He’s tied at the hip to Brock Purdy and fans are saying “Super Bowl championship or else” with conviction. Shanahan’s days of "in the mix" and no consequences are no longer flying with a growing percentage of the Faithful.

“We take accountability.”

Lynch’s words, "We own that, we take accountability for that.” Ok, how? What form will that accountability take? What changes will be made? Worth keeping an eye on that and reminding Lynch of his quote over time if nothing changes.

Accountability is leadership. Stand firm, accept criticism, learn and change from it, and articulate your plan with clear belief. The opposite happened. Shanahan lied to the media about QB2, Fred Warner was sent to face local reporters in an unfair and awkward situation, and then Shanahan retreated to a pre-recorded radio interview. This was one of the lowest points of Shanahan’s tenure in Santa Clara.

Grace has been lost with a segment of fans. Some looked on with a watchful eye as a marquee team invested heavily in a black quarterback. They believe Lance was abandoned and now they are doing the same with the team. No merch, no passion, for some, no allegiance.

They say they feel betrayed by Shanahan’s actions. They can accept a personnel decision, but they also demand fairness and do not believe that happened here.

Now what?

The team moves on. All the air comes out of the balloon once a player is dealt. The drama will fade and focus will mercifully take its place. Then, in theory, Super Bowl or bust.

I don’t think either will happen. Shanahan is not at risk of being fired. But the context has shifted. Shanahan is now seen in a less favorable light, as for the first time, fans are holding him to his choices and demanding accountability.

The clock has begun.