Will the 49ers Inflict Enough Pain in the Rain to Keep from Derailing their 3-0 Train vs. the Seahawks?
If you are like me, then the Raiders game and the Cardinals game eroded a bit of your confidence in the 49ers. After beating the Commanders, they were clearly the hottest team in football. While they still have the longest win streak in the NFL at 10 games, the quality of their last two opponents was very low. The lowly Raiders required overtime to overcome. Despite being utterly decimated by injuries, the Cards were only down by one, single, solitary point with 29 seconds remaining in the first half.
It is quite possible that the team eased back a little bit, after clinching the NFC West and no worse than the No. 3 seed in the NFC, when they swept the Seahawks for the first time since 2011 in Seattle. It's also possible that opposing defensive coordinators have accumulated enough film of Brock Purdy to begin to attack his weaknesses and limit his strengths. The Raiders D is just not good and the Cards D was basically missing everyone except for JJ Watt & Isaiah Simmons, so neither may have had the horses to make use of the knowledge.
The good news is that Elijah Mitchell is back after his third lightning fast start this season. He started rapidly in Chicago Week 1, quickly again coming back from his first MCL sprain in Week 10 vs. the Chargers and coming back with much haste after his second MCL, in week 18 vs. the Cards. Deebo Samuel is back as well, but he's hardly known for fast starts and hasn't been the same player that he was in 2021 yet this season. I have no doubts that Samuel will be a big contributor at some point, but I'm not sure about this Saturday's Wildcard game at Levi's. In addition, the 49ers got Javon Kinlaw back vs. the Commanders in Week 16. He has been ramping up gradually. Kevin Givens was full go in practice on Tuesday, which is great news for the interior defensive line. It even appears as if both Dre Greenlaw and Aaron Banks might play. This might be the healthiest that the 49ers have been all season, since they didn't trade for Christian McCaffrey until Week 7, so he, Jimmie Ward and George Kittle didn't play Week 1.
In the first matchup in Week 2 at Levi's, the Seahawks offense was shutout, but not getting a few big breaks for the 49ers could've made a huge difference. Pete Carroll got cute with a halfback option that got picked off. An illegal man downfield erased a huge DK Metcalf catch. A muffed punt return gave the 49ers a first and goal that they quickly converted into touchdown. Same thing with the game in Seattle. Quandre Diggs dropped an easy interception and Travis Homer fumbled when Dre Greenlaw popped the ball out with his head and shoulder. Both games could have gone much differently than they did and rain tends to be an equalizer for teams that have less talent. The Seahawks are also much more used to playing in the rain than the 49ers are and it's going to be an absolute deluge. Rain does tend to favor running teams, as well more physical teams. The 49ers do have the edge in both of those categories.
I also worry about the Refs helping the Seahawks. Both to boost the ratings and maybe to keep a rookie quarterback from taking his team to the Super Bowl, for the first time ever as well.
I do believe that the 49ers will inflict enough pain in the rain to keep from derailing the 3-0 train vs the Seahawks. I don't think that they will cover the 9.5 point spread. As of now I'm thinking closer to a 5 point margin. As always, I will reply to this article with my official prediction about an hour before kickoff, once we know exactly who will play and who won't.
