Will the 49ers Ground and Pound the Eagles into Submission?
I've had two Eagles content creators on Ted Talks Ball this week, as well as several 49ers content creators, and we all agreed that the 49ers and the Eagles are the two best teams in the NFC and that this will be a hard fought win for whichever team emerges victorious from this Championship Game on Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field.
The Eagles have the advantage at quarterback. Jalen Hurts is more talented and more productive than Brock Purdy. They also have the advantage at offensive line, if Lane Johnson can continue to play and play productively despite a torn muscle in his groin/abdomen that will require offseason surgery. They had the No. 1 run game in 2022. AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith had better seasons than Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. The Eagles defensive line led the league in sacks with 70. They have arguably the best cornerback duo in football with Darius Slay and James Bradberry.
So, why am I picking the 49ers to win?
The 49ers have the best group of weapons in football. They also have the No. 1 defense in the NFL. Kyle Shanahan is 6-2 in the playoffs, reaching the NFCCG three times and the Super Bowl once in the past four seasons. Nick Sirianni is 1-1 in the playoffs with his only win being over the anemic Giants. The Eagles defense is is ranked 21st vs the run - that's bottom 11 in the league for the 2022 season:
The 49ers have the No. 5 run game since week 8, and the Eagles have the No. 20 run defense since week eight.
Eagles fans have argued that run defense suffered due to their offense jumping all over teams early in games to establish 2-3 score leads. After that, the Eagles defense softened to shell coverage to limit big passing plays. This allowed easier running lanes, but did this also lead to an inflated sack total for their defense as well?
The Eagles defense is really good against No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers, but the are weak against No. 3 and No. 4 receivers (Jauan Jennings and Ray-Ray McCloud) and running backs catching the ball out of the backfield (Christian McCaffrey, Kyle Juszczyk and Deebo Samuel). They are also very good against average tight ends for 2022 season, but George Kittle is about as far from an average tight end as you can get. Brandon Aiyuk is a filthy route runner, who can get separation on any cornerback, my only question is can Purdy get Aiyuk the ball before the secondary recovers to make a pass break up or an interception?
As good as the Eagles offensive line is, their left tackle Jordan Mailata is ranked No. 41 out of just 56 tackles, which is bottom third:
Against common opponents this season (Cowboys, Commanders, Bears, Saints and Cards), the 49ers were much better, 95 points differential better. Yes, Jalen Hurts missed a couple of games, but 49ers defense held the Saints plus the Cowboys to just 12 points, while those two teams scored 60 vs the Eagles defense:
Ultimately, the Eagles haven't played a defense as good the 49ers, considering there is none and they haven't faced a group of weapons this great either. They have barely faced any offensive lines that rival or surpass the 49ers offensive line. My prediction that I've been saying all week is 49ers 27, Eagles 24, but I will wait to replay to this article with official prediction about an hour before kickoff, once we know exactly who will play and who won't.
